STATE vs G2 Ares at Logitech G Play Connect 2026 Closed Qualifier — Match breakdown

Bo3 · Logitech G Play Connect 2026 Closed Qualifier✕ Wrong call11:00 UTC · 2026-08-28

◇ Pre-game prediction

STATE

62%vs38%

G2 Ares

Top scenarioSTATE 2-0 · 33%

Map advantageSc 3 (14%): leads 3 of 3 · 62%

Ranking edge+16 (#88 vs #104)

Player rating1.08 vs 1.02

◆ Actual result

STATE

0–2

G2 Ares

Map by map

Ancient2–13G2 Ares

Cache14–16G2 Ares

Predicted maps

Veto scenario 3 · 14% of outcomes

Sc 121%of outcomesInferno / Mirage / CacheSc 215%of outcomesInferno / Mirage / AncientSc 314%of outcomesInferno / Cache / Ancient

top 3 of 10 veto outcomes · 49% coverage

Inferno

STATEG2 Ares

56%44%

Win prob · OT 10%13–10

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Cache

STATEG2 Ares

62%38%

Win prob · OT 9%13–8

▾

Ancient

STATEG2 Ares

55%45%

Win prob · OT 11%13–10

▾

All Maps

4 maps · Key factors + Recent

Mirage

STATEG2 Ares

55%45%

Win prob · OT 11%13–9

▾

Anubis

STATEG2 Ares

65%35%

Win prob · OT 8%13–8

▾

Nuke

STATEG2 Ares

62%38%

Win prob · OT 9%13–8

▾

Dust2

STATEG2 Ares

40%60%

Win prob · OT 10%9–13

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