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Bo3  ·  NODWIN Clutch Series 7
ursa
vs
mouz nxt ✓
30%
70%
Series win probability
MN 2–1 41%
MN 2–0 29%
URSA 2–0 19%
URSA 2–1 11%
Actual result
Dust2 16–14
Model Insights
mouz nxt has a moderate edge at 70%, favored on 2 of 3 maps. Key factors: stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#89 vs #79), a strong nuke (82% win probability). ursa's best shot is anubis where they hold a 62% edge.
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 43% Dust2 · Anubis · Nuke
Scenario 2 40% Dust2 · Nuke · Mirage
Scenario 3 17% Dust2 · Nuke · Overpass
Dust2
ursa pick
URSA 11 – 13 MN
33%
67%
Win prob OT 12% ✓
Key factors
After First Kill
URSA
MN
Map Player Rating
URSA
MN
Round Win Rate
URSA
MN
Head-to-Head
URSA
MN
T Side
URSA
MN
Recent on Dust2
ursa
13-4 vs Acend Apr 15
13-11 vs Leo Apr 12
3-13 vs Phantom Apr 10
8-13 vs ASTRAL Apr 9
16-14 vs Johnny Speeds Apr 7
mouz nxt
13-7 vs GenOne Apr 14
8-13 vs ARCRED Apr 12
13-11 vs zajezdzacze Apr 8
3-13 vs aimclub Mar 29
13-8 vs Nexus Mar 24
Anubis
mouz nxt pick
URSA 13 – 10 MN
57%
43%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
URSA
MN
After First Death
URSA
MN
Head-to-Head
URSA
MN
CT 4v5
URSA
MN
After First Kill
URSA
MN
Recent on Anubis
ursa
9-13 vs BIG Apr 9
13-2 vs MINLATE Apr 3
13-11 vs ECSTATIC Apr 2
13-10 vs Leo Mar 25
13-11 vs ECSTATIC Mar 17
mouz nxt
6-13 vs GenOne Apr 14
7-13 vs Clutchain Apr 13
7-13 vs aimclub Mar 29
13-10 vs fnatic Mar 24
6-13 vs Nemiga Mar 14
Nuke
Decider
URSA 8 – 13 MN
22%
78%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
After First Death
URSA
MN
Map Player Rating
URSA
MN
Head-to-Head
URSA
MN
Overall Rating
URSA
MN
Opening Score
URSA
MN
Recent on Nuke
ursa
17-19 vs ESC Apr 16
13-5 vs Leo Apr 12
13-6 vs ASTRAL Apr 11
13-6 vs Phantom Apr 10
4-13 vs ASTRAL Apr 9
mouz nxt
5-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 17
13-3 vs Qual4 Apr 14
13-7 vs GenOne Apr 14
8-13 vs ARCRED Apr 12
6-13 vs BIG Mar 25
Dust2
ursa pick
URSA 11 – 13 MN
33%
67%
Win prob OT 12% ✓
Key factors
After First Kill
URSA
MN
Map Player Rating
URSA
MN
Round Win Rate
URSA
MN
Head-to-Head
URSA
MN
T Side
URSA
MN
Recent on Dust2
ursa
13-4 vs Acend Apr 15
13-11 vs Leo Apr 12
3-13 vs Phantom Apr 10
8-13 vs ASTRAL Apr 9
16-14 vs Johnny Speeds Apr 7
mouz nxt
13-7 vs GenOne Apr 14
8-13 vs ARCRED Apr 12
13-11 vs zajezdzacze Apr 8
3-13 vs aimclub Mar 29
13-8 vs Nexus Mar 24
Nuke
Decider
URSA 8 – 13 MN
22%
78%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
After First Death
URSA
MN
Map Player Rating
URSA
MN
Head-to-Head
URSA
MN
Overall Rating
URSA
MN
Opening Score
URSA
MN
Recent on Nuke
ursa
17-19 vs ESC Apr 16
13-5 vs Leo Apr 12
13-6 vs ASTRAL Apr 11
13-6 vs Phantom Apr 10
4-13 vs ASTRAL Apr 9
mouz nxt
5-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 17
13-3 vs Qual4 Apr 14
13-7 vs GenOne Apr 14
8-13 vs ARCRED Apr 12
6-13 vs BIG Mar 25
Mirage
URSA 8 – 13 MN
21%
79%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
URSA
MN
After First Death
URSA
MN
After First Kill
URSA
MN
Head-to-Head
URSA
MN
Opening Kills
URSA
MN
Recent on Mirage
ursa
14-16 vs Phantom Apr 10
13-10 vs MINLATE Apr 3
8-13 vs Just Players Apr 1
11-13 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Mar 30
13-6 vs Omega Mar 30
mouz nxt
13-16 vs ex-RUBY Apr 17
13-10 vs zajezdzacze Apr 8
10-13 vs Lazer Cats Mar 29
13-5 vs ADN Mar 29
13-6 vs CYBERSHOKE Mar 12
Dust2
ursa pick
URSA 11 – 13 MN
33%
67%
Win prob OT 12% ✓
Key factors
After First Kill
URSA
MN
Map Player Rating
URSA
MN
Round Win Rate
URSA
MN
Head-to-Head
URSA
MN
T Side
URSA
MN
Recent on Dust2
ursa
13-4 vs Acend Apr 15
13-11 vs Leo Apr 12
3-13 vs Phantom Apr 10
8-13 vs ASTRAL Apr 9
16-14 vs Johnny Speeds Apr 7
mouz nxt
13-7 vs GenOne Apr 14
8-13 vs ARCRED Apr 12
13-11 vs zajezdzacze Apr 8
3-13 vs aimclub Mar 29
13-8 vs Nexus Mar 24
Nuke
Decider
URSA 8 – 13 MN
22%
78%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
After First Death
URSA
MN
Map Player Rating
URSA
MN
Head-to-Head
URSA
MN
Overall Rating
URSA
MN
Opening Score
URSA
MN
Recent on Nuke
ursa
17-19 vs ESC Apr 16
13-5 vs Leo Apr 12
13-6 vs ASTRAL Apr 11
13-6 vs Phantom Apr 10
4-13 vs ASTRAL Apr 9
mouz nxt
5-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 17
13-3 vs Qual4 Apr 14
13-7 vs GenOne Apr 14
8-13 vs ARCRED Apr 12
6-13 vs BIG Mar 25
Overpass
URSA 11 – 13 MN
54%
46%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
URSA
MN
Round Win Rate
URSA
MN
Map Win Rate
URSA
MN
T Side
URSA
MN
Head-to-Head
URSA
MN
Recent on Overpass
ursa
9-13 vs BIG Apr 9
6-13 vs Johnny Speeds Apr 7
5-13 vs ECSTATIC Apr 2
13-4 vs megoshort Mar 31
4-13 vs Nemiga Mar 25
mouz nxt
5-13 vs BIG Mar 25
1-13 vs Nemiga Mar 14
9-13 vs K27 Mar 11
13-7 vs Nemesis Mar 9
8-13 vs Tricked Feb 27
Recent Results last 11 matches
ursa
mouz nxt
L 0-2 vs ESC InfernoNuke Apr 16 10d ago
W 2-0 vs Acend Dust2Inferno Apr 15 11d ago
W 2-0 vs Leo Dust2Nuke Apr 12 14d ago
W 2-0 vs ASTRAL InfernoNuke Apr 11 15d ago
L 1-2 vs Phantom Dust2NukeMirage Apr 10 16d ago
L 0-2 vs BIG OverpassAnubis Apr 9 17d ago
L 0-2 vs ASTRAL Dust2Nuke Apr 9 17d ago
W 2-1 vs Johnny Speeds OverpassDust2Inferno Apr 7 19d ago
W 2-1 vs MINLATE NukeAnubisMirage Apr 3 23d ago
W 2-0 vs megoshort InfernoDust2 Apr 2 24d ago
L 1-2 vs TNT NukeDust2Inferno Apr 2 24d ago
L 0-2 vs ex-RUBY NukeMirage Apr 17 9d ago
W 1-0 vs Qual4 Nuke Apr 14 12d ago
W 2-1 vs GenOne Dust2AnubisNuke Apr 14 12d ago
L 0-1 vs Clutchain Anubis Apr 13 13d ago
L 0-2 vs ARCRED NukeDust2 Apr 12 14d ago
W 2-0 vs zajezdzacze Dust2Mirage Apr 8 18d ago
L 0-2 vs aimclub Dust2Anubis Mar 29 28d ago
L 0-1 vs Lazer Cats Mirage Mar 29 28d ago
W 1-0 vs ADN Mirage Mar 29 28d ago
L 0-2 vs BIG NukeOverpass Mar 25 32d ago
W 1-0 vs fnatic Anubis Mar 24 33d ago
Player Matchups
ursa
Rating 3.0
mouz nxt
AL
Alv
AWPADR 79.7KAST 74%
1.19 vs 1.03
NI
Nikodeon
AWPADR 72.9KAST 72%
KA
karnez
RiflerADR 80.9KAST 74%
1.15 vs 0.95
AY
ay0k
AWPADR 65.8KAST 70%
4X
4X1s
RiflerADR 79.1KAST 72%
1.10 vs 0.93
OP
opdust
RiflerADR 66.2KAST 70%
SA
Salazar
RiflerADR 65.5KAST 72%
0.97 vs —
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Mirage
URSA 8 – 13 MN
21%
79%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
URSA
MN
After First Death
URSA
MN
After First Kill
URSA
MN
Head-to-Head
URSA
MN
Opening Kills
URSA
MN
Recent on Mirage
ursa
14-16 vs Phantom Apr 10
13-10 vs MINLATE Apr 3
8-13 vs Just Players Apr 1
11-13 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Mar 30
13-6 vs Omega Mar 30
mouz nxt
13-16 vs ex-RUBY Apr 17
13-10 vs zajezdzacze Apr 8
10-13 vs Lazer Cats Mar 29
13-5 vs ADN Mar 29
13-6 vs CYBERSHOKE Mar 12
Ancient
Decider
URSA 8 – 13 MN
24%
76%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
URSA
MN
After First Kill
URSA
MN
Head-to-Head
URSA
MN
Rating Spread
URSA
MN
Best Player
URSA
MN
Recent on Ancient
ursa
11-13 vs ASTRAL Mar 17
mouz nxt
13-8 vs megoshort Mar 12
13-16 vs CYBERSHOKE Mar 12
11-13 vs K27 Mar 11
7-13 vs Nuclear TigeRES Mar 10
13-8 vs Nemesis Mar 9
Inferno
Decider
URSA 13 – 9 MN
63%
37%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
URSA
MN
After First Death
URSA
MN
After First Kill
URSA
MN
Star Player
URSA
MN
Overall Rating
URSA
MN
Recent on Inferno
ursa
6-13 vs ESC Apr 16
13-6 vs Acend Apr 15
13-9 vs ASTRAL Apr 11
13-3 vs Johnny Speeds Apr 7
16-13 vs megoshort Apr 2
mouz nxt
no data
Overpass
URSA 11 – 13 MN
54%
46%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
URSA
MN
Round Win Rate
URSA
MN
Map Win Rate
URSA
MN
T Side
URSA
MN
Head-to-Head
URSA
MN
Recent on Overpass
ursa
9-13 vs BIG Apr 9
6-13 vs Johnny Speeds Apr 7
5-13 vs ECSTATIC Apr 2
13-4 vs megoshort Mar 31
4-13 vs Nemiga Mar 25
mouz nxt
5-13 vs BIG Mar 25
1-13 vs Nemiga Mar 14
9-13 vs K27 Mar 11
13-7 vs Nemesis Mar 9
8-13 vs Tricked Feb 27