Bo3 · IEM Rio 2026
falcons
vs
spirit
✓
38%
62%
Series win probability
SPIR
2–0
47%
FALC
2–1
28%
SPIR
2–1
15%
FALC
2–0
10%
Actual result
Dust2
13–7
SPIR
Mirage
13–4
SPIR
Model Insights
spirit has a moderate edge at 62%, favored on 2 of 3 maps. Key factors: stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#5 vs #3), a strong dust2 (82% win probability). falcons's best shot is anubis where they hold a 77% edge.
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
Mirage · Dust2 · Anubis
Mirage
FALC
11
–
13
SPIR
34%
66%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
Map Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Overall Rating
FALC
SPIR
After First Kill
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Mirage
falcons
13-10
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-5
vs Spirit
Apr 14
11-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 27
13-11
vs FURIA
Mar 23
13-2
vs TYLOO
Mar 22
spirit
13-8
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
13-7
vs G2
Apr 15
8-13
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
5-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
13-8
vs Liquid
Mar 19
Dust2
FALC
8
–
13
SPIR
29%
71%
Win prob
OT 8%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
FALC
SPIR
After First Kill
FALC
SPIR
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
After First Death
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
falcons
6-13
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-16
vs FURIA
Mar 23
9-13
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 20
13-8
vs NRG
Mar 18
14-16
vs PARIVISION
Feb 20
spirit
13-5
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
13-11
vs G2
Apr 15
13-11
vs Liquid
Apr 13
13-6
vs 9z
Mar 22
6-13
vs Astralis
Mar 13
Anubis
FALC
13
–
8
SPIR
65%
35%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
After First Death
FALC
SPIR
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
Map Player Rating
FALC
SPIR
After First Kill
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Anubis
falcons
13-4
vs Spirit
Apr 14
13-11
vs FURIA
Feb 16
13-9
vs FaZe
Feb 15
13-5
vs 3DMAX
Feb 3
7-13
vs Aurora
Feb 1
spirit
4-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
3-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
13-10
vs G2
Mar 8
13-7
vs B8
Mar 7
13-8
vs G2
Feb 3
Player Matchups
Player data not available for this match
Unpredicted Maps
5 maps
Ancient
FALC
13
–
6
SPIR
86%
14%
Win prob
OT 5%
Key factors
After First Death
FALC
SPIR
Map Player Rating
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Opening Kills
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Ancient
falcons
13-1
vs 3DMAX
Apr 13
10-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 27
13-1
vs TYLOO
Mar 22
13-6
vs NRG
Mar 18
8-13
vs PARIVISION
Feb 20
spirit
13-8
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
13-2
vs Liquid
Apr 13
8-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
13-11
vs Liquid
Mar 19
7-13
vs Astralis
Mar 13
Nuke
FALC
13
–
10
SPIR
69%
31%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
FALC
SPIR
After First Kill
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Map Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Nuke
falcons
16-14
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-10
vs FURIA
Mar 23
13-7
vs 3DMAX
Feb 14
spirit
11-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-9
vs B8
Mar 7
13-10
vs 3DMAX
Mar 6
7-13
vs FURIA
Feb 7
Mirage
FALC
11
–
13
SPIR
34%
66%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
Map Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Overall Rating
FALC
SPIR
After First Kill
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Mirage
falcons
13-10
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-5
vs Spirit
Apr 14
11-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 27
13-11
vs FURIA
Mar 23
13-2
vs TYLOO
Mar 22
spirit
13-8
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
13-7
vs G2
Apr 15
8-13
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
5-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
13-8
vs Liquid
Mar 19
Dust2
FALC
8
–
13
SPIR
29%
71%
Win prob
OT 8%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
FALC
SPIR
After First Kill
FALC
SPIR
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
After First Death
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
falcons
6-13
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-16
vs FURIA
Mar 23
9-13
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 20
13-8
vs NRG
Mar 18
14-16
vs PARIVISION
Feb 20
spirit
13-5
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
13-11
vs G2
Apr 15
13-11
vs Liquid
Apr 13
13-6
vs 9z
Mar 22
6-13
vs Astralis
Mar 13
Anubis
FALC
13
–
8
SPIR
65%
35%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
After First Death
FALC
SPIR
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
Map Player Rating
FALC
SPIR
After First Kill
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Anubis
falcons
13-4
vs Spirit
Apr 14
13-11
vs FURIA
Feb 16
13-9
vs FaZe
Feb 15
13-5
vs 3DMAX
Feb 3
7-13
vs Aurora
Feb 1
spirit
4-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
3-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
13-10
vs G2
Mar 8
13-7
vs B8
Mar 7
13-8
vs G2
Feb 3
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