Bo3 · IEM Rio 2026
falcons
vs
spirit
✓
32%
68%
Series win probability
SPIR
2–0
52%
FALC
2–1
24%
SPIR
2–1
16%
FALC
2–0
8%
Actual result
Mirage
13–4
Dust2
13–7
Model Insights
spirit has a moderate edge at 68%, favored on 2 of 3 maps. Key factors: stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#5 vs #3), a strong dust2 (86% win probability). falcons's best shot is anubis where they hold a 73% edge.
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
39%
Mirage · Dust2 · Anubis
Scenario 2
36%
Mirage · Dust2 · Ancient
Scenario 3
26%
Mirage · Dust2 · Nuke
Mirage
FALC
10
–
13
SPIR
31%
69%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
Map Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Opening Score
FALC
SPIR
KAST
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Mirage
falcons
13-10
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-5
vs Spirit
Apr 14
11-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 27
13-11
vs FURIA
Mar 23
13-2
vs TYLOO
Mar 22
spirit
13-8
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
13-7
vs G2
Apr 15
8-13
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
5-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
13-8
vs Liquid
Mar 19
Dust2
FALC
7
–
13
SPIR
24%
76%
Win prob
OT 7%
✓
Key factors
After First Kill
FALC
SPIR
Map Player Rating
FALC
SPIR
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
After First Death
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
falcons
6-13
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-16
vs FURIA
Mar 23
9-13
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 20
13-8
vs NRG
Mar 18
14-16
vs PARIVISION
Feb 20
spirit
13-5
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
13-11
vs G2
Apr 15
13-11
vs Liquid
Apr 13
13-6
vs 9z
Mar 22
6-13
vs Astralis
Mar 13
Anubis
FALC
13
–
9
SPIR
61%
39%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
After First Death
FALC
SPIR
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Map Player Rating
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
After First Kill
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Anubis
falcons
13-4
vs Spirit
Apr 14
13-11
vs FURIA
Feb 16
13-9
vs FaZe
Feb 15
13-5
vs 3DMAX
Feb 3
7-13
vs Aurora
Feb 1
spirit
4-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
3-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
13-10
vs G2
Mar 8
13-7
vs B8
Mar 7
13-8
vs G2
Feb 3
Mirage
FALC
10
–
13
SPIR
31%
69%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
Map Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Opening Score
FALC
SPIR
KAST
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Mirage
falcons
13-10
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-5
vs Spirit
Apr 14
11-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 27
13-11
vs FURIA
Mar 23
13-2
vs TYLOO
Mar 22
spirit
13-8
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
13-7
vs G2
Apr 15
8-13
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
5-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
13-8
vs Liquid
Mar 19
Dust2
FALC
7
–
13
SPIR
24%
76%
Win prob
OT 7%
✓
Key factors
After First Kill
FALC
SPIR
Map Player Rating
FALC
SPIR
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
After First Death
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
falcons
6-13
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-16
vs FURIA
Mar 23
9-13
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 20
13-8
vs NRG
Mar 18
14-16
vs PARIVISION
Feb 20
spirit
13-5
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
13-11
vs G2
Apr 15
13-11
vs Liquid
Apr 13
13-6
vs 9z
Mar 22
6-13
vs Astralis
Mar 13
Ancient
FALC
13
–
6
SPIR
87%
13%
Win prob
OT 5%
Key factors
After First Death
FALC
SPIR
Map Player Rating
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
KAST
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Ancient
falcons
13-1
vs 3DMAX
Apr 13
10-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 27
13-1
vs TYLOO
Mar 22
13-6
vs NRG
Mar 18
8-13
vs PARIVISION
Feb 20
spirit
13-8
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
13-2
vs Liquid
Apr 13
8-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
13-11
vs Liquid
Mar 19
7-13
vs Astralis
Mar 13
Mirage
FALC
10
–
13
SPIR
31%
69%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
Map Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Opening Score
FALC
SPIR
KAST
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Mirage
falcons
13-10
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-5
vs Spirit
Apr 14
11-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 27
13-11
vs FURIA
Mar 23
13-2
vs TYLOO
Mar 22
spirit
13-8
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
13-7
vs G2
Apr 15
8-13
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
5-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
13-8
vs Liquid
Mar 19
Dust2
FALC
7
–
13
SPIR
24%
76%
Win prob
OT 7%
✓
Key factors
After First Kill
FALC
SPIR
Map Player Rating
FALC
SPIR
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
After First Death
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
falcons
6-13
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-16
vs FURIA
Mar 23
9-13
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 20
13-8
vs NRG
Mar 18
14-16
vs PARIVISION
Feb 20
spirit
13-5
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
13-11
vs G2
Apr 15
13-11
vs Liquid
Apr 13
13-6
vs 9z
Mar 22
6-13
vs Astralis
Mar 13
Nuke
FALC
13
–
8
SPIR
78%
22%
Win prob
OT 8%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
FALC
SPIR
After First Kill
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
Map Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Nuke
falcons
16-14
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-10
vs FURIA
Mar 23
13-7
vs 3DMAX
Feb 14
spirit
11-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-9
vs B8
Mar 7
13-10
vs 3DMAX
Mar 6
7-13
vs FURIA
Feb 7
Recent Results
last 11 matches
falcons
spirit
W
2-1
vs Vitality
MirageDust2Nuke
Apr 15
11d ago
W
2-0
vs Spirit
AnubisMirage
Apr 14
12d ago
W
2-0
vs 3DMAX
InfernoAncient
Apr 13
13d ago
L
0-2
vs PARIVISION
MirageAncient
Mar 27
30d ago
W
2-1
vs FURIA
MirageDust2Nuke
Mar 23
34d ago
W
2-1
vs TYLOO
InfernoAncientMirage
Mar 22
35d ago
L
1-2
vs Natus Vincere
MirageInfernoDust2
Mar 20
37d ago
W
2-0
vs NRG
AncientDust2
Mar 18
39d ago
L
1-2
vs PARIVISION
Dust2MirageAncient
Feb 20
65d ago
W
2-1
vs FURIA
MirageInfernoAnubis
Feb 16
69d ago
W
2-1
vs FaZe
AnubisDust2Ancient
Feb 15
70d ago
W
2-0
vs MOUZ
Dust2Mirage
Apr 17
9d ago
W
2-0
vs G2
MirageDust2
Apr 15
11d ago
W
2-1
vs RED Canids
MirageAncientOverpass
Apr 15
11d ago
L
0-2
vs Falcons
AnubisMirage
Apr 14
12d ago
W
2-0
vs Liquid
AncientDust2
Apr 13
13d ago
L
0-2
vs The MongolZ
NukeOverpass
Mar 23
34d ago
W
2-0
vs 9z
OverpassDust2
Mar 22
35d ago
L
0-2
vs PARIVISION
AnubisAncient
Mar 21
36d ago
W
2-0
vs Liquid
MirageAncient
Mar 19
38d ago
L
0-2
vs Astralis
Dust2Ancient
Mar 13
44d ago
W
2-0
vs G2
AncientAnubis
Mar 8
49d ago
Player Matchups
falcons
Rating 3.0
spirit
M0
m0NESY
AWPADR 80.4KAST 77%
DO
donk
EntryADR 94.9KAST 77%
KY
kyousuke
RiflerADR 81.9KAST 73%
SH
sh1ro
AWPADR 78.1KAST 77%
NI
NiKo
AWPADR 75.7KAST 74%
TN
tN1R
AWPADR 73.3KAST 74%
TE
TeSeS
AWPADR 64.7KAST 72%
MA
magixx
RiflerADR 66.5KAST 74%
KY
kyxsan
AWPADR 63.1KAST 70%
ZO
zont1x
AWPADR 66.6KAST 74%
Unpredicted Maps
2 maps
Ancient
FALC
13
–
6
SPIR
87%
13%
Win prob
OT 5%
Key factors
After First Death
FALC
SPIR
Map Player Rating
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
KAST
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Ancient
falcons
13-1
vs 3DMAX
Apr 13
10-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 27
13-1
vs TYLOO
Mar 22
13-6
vs NRG
Mar 18
8-13
vs PARIVISION
Feb 20
spirit
13-8
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
13-2
vs Liquid
Apr 13
8-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
13-11
vs Liquid
Mar 19
7-13
vs Astralis
Mar 13
Nuke
FALC
13
–
8
SPIR
78%
22%
Win prob
OT 8%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
FALC
SPIR
After First Kill
FALC
SPIR
Head-to-Head
FALC
SPIR
Map Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Round Win Rate
FALC
SPIR
Recent on Nuke
falcons
16-14
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-10
vs FURIA
Mar 23
13-7
vs 3DMAX
Feb 14
spirit
11-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-9
vs B8
Mar 7
13-10
vs 3DMAX
Mar 6
7-13
vs FURIA
Feb 7