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Bo3  ·  CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 1
rustec ✓
vs
atreides
43%
57%
Series win probability
ATRE 2–0 53%
RUST 2–1 36%
RUST 2–0 7%
ATRE 2–1 4%
Actual result
Inferno 13–5 ATRE
Nuke 13–11 RUST
Overpass 13–4 RUST
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — atreides is slightly favored at 57% but only leads on 2 of 3 maps. Key factors: stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#167 vs #136), a strong mirage (80% win probability). rustec's best shot is overpass where they hold a 94% edge.
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 Dust2 · Mirage · Overpass
Dust2
RUST 9 – 13 ATRE
25%
75%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
After First Death
RUST
ATRE
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
After First Kill
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Dust2
rustec
13-9 vs Nemesis Apr 8
8-13 vs MANA Apr 1
6-13 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
13-6 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
13-8 vs Metizport Mar 29
atreides
9-13 vs QWENTRY Mar 17
9-13 vs QWENTRY Feb 14
Mirage
RUST 8 – 13 ATRE
29%
71%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
After First Kill
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
Round Win Rate
RUST
ATRE
After First Death
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Mirage
rustec
8-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
6-13 vs MANA Apr 1
5-13 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
13-2 vs Nigel Mirage Mar 29
13-9 vs MANA Mar 28
atreides
13-5 vs Clutchain fe Apr 18
2-13 vs UNiTY Apr 1
13-0 vs EXSAD Mar 29
10-13 vs Lavked Mar 23
13-8 vs QWENTRY Mar 17
Overpass
RUST 13 – 6 ATRE
91%
9%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
After First Kill
RUST
ATRE
After First Death
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
Opening Score
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Overpass
rustec
13-11 vs STATE Apr 3
13-7 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Apr 2
16-12 vs Nigel Mirage Mar 29
13-11 vs Metizport Mar 29
13-3 vs Hashiras Mar 23
atreides
13-16 vs QUAZAR Apr 3
13-9 vs Lavked Mar 23
14-16 vs QWENTRY Mar 17
13-8 vs Aurora Young Blud Feb 26
11-13 vs TDK Feb 11
Player Matchups
Player data not available for this match
Unpredicted Maps 6 maps
Inferno
RUST 7 – 13 ATRE
16%
84%
Win prob OT 7%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
After First Death
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
After First Kill
RUST
ATRE
Ban Rate
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Inferno
rustec
no data
atreides
13-10 vs QUAZAR Apr 3
7-13 vs UNiTY Apr 1
10-13 vs Hashiras Mar 16
16-12 vs brazylijski luz Mar 1
13-10 vs brazylijski luz Feb 28
Ancient
RUST 10 – 13 ATRE
39%
61%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
Round Win Rate
RUST
ATRE
After First Kill
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
CT Side
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Ancient
rustec
11-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
13-7 vs Oxuji Mar 24
13-9 vs Nemesis Mar 9
3-13 vs K27 Feb 2
atreides
13-2 vs EXSAD Mar 29
13-2 vs brazylijski luz Mar 1
5-13 vs Aurora Young Blud Feb 26
13-8 vs CSDIILIT Feb 13
Nuke
RUST 13 – 10 ATRE
45%
55%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
Map Win Rate
RUST
ATRE
Round Win Rate
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
T Side
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Nuke
rustec
13-9 vs STATE Apr 3
13-6 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Apr 2
13-7 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
13-5 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
2-13 vs Metizport Mar 29
atreides
13-1 vs Clutchain fe Apr 18
9-13 vs QUAZAR Apr 3
9-13 vs Lavked Mar 23
11-13 vs Hashiras Mar 16
5-13 vs brazylijski luz Mar 1
Dust2
RUST 9 – 13 ATRE
25%
75%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
After First Death
RUST
ATRE
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
After First Kill
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Dust2
rustec
13-9 vs Nemesis Apr 8
8-13 vs MANA Apr 1
6-13 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
13-6 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
13-8 vs Metizport Mar 29
atreides
9-13 vs QWENTRY Mar 17
9-13 vs QWENTRY Feb 14
Mirage
RUST 8 – 13 ATRE
29%
71%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
After First Kill
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
Round Win Rate
RUST
ATRE
After First Death
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Mirage
rustec
8-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
6-13 vs MANA Apr 1
5-13 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
13-2 vs Nigel Mirage Mar 29
13-9 vs MANA Mar 28
atreides
13-5 vs Clutchain fe Apr 18
2-13 vs UNiTY Apr 1
13-0 vs EXSAD Mar 29
10-13 vs Lavked Mar 23
13-8 vs QWENTRY Mar 17
Overpass
RUST 13 – 6 ATRE
91%
9%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
After First Kill
RUST
ATRE
After First Death
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
Opening Score
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Overpass
rustec
13-11 vs STATE Apr 3
13-7 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Apr 2
16-12 vs Nigel Mirage Mar 29
13-11 vs Metizport Mar 29
13-3 vs Hashiras Mar 23
atreides
13-16 vs QUAZAR Apr 3
13-9 vs Lavked Mar 23
14-16 vs QWENTRY Mar 17
13-8 vs Aurora Young Blud Feb 26
11-13 vs TDK Feb 11
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