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Bo3  ·  CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 1
rustec ✓
vs
atreides
50%
50%
Series win probability
ATRE 2–0 48%
RUST 2–1 41%
RUST 2–0 10%
ATRE 2–1 2%
Actual result
Overpass 13–4
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — rustec is slightly favored at 50% but only leads on 1 of 3 maps. Key factors: a significant ranking advantage (#136 vs #167), a strong overpass (98% win probability). atreides's best shot is mirage where they hold a 80% edge.
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 39% Dust2 · Mirage · Overpass
Scenario 2 34% Mirage · Overpass · Nuke
Scenario 3 27% Mirage · Overpass · Ancient
Dust2
rustec pick
RUST 10 – 13 ATRE
33%
67%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
RUST
ATRE
After First Death
RUST
ATRE
After First Kill
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
Map Win Rate
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Dust2
rustec
13-9 vs Nemesis Apr 8
8-13 vs MANA Apr 1
6-13 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
13-6 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
13-8 vs Metizport Mar 29
atreides
9-13 vs QWENTRY Mar 17
9-13 vs QWENTRY Feb 14
Mirage
atreides pick
RUST 8 – 13 ATRE
29%
71%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
After First Kill
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
After First Death
RUST
ATRE
Schedule Strength
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Mirage
rustec
8-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
6-13 vs MANA Apr 1
5-13 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
13-2 vs Nigel Mirage Mar 29
13-9 vs MANA Mar 28
atreides
13-5 vs Clutchain fe Apr 18
2-13 vs UNiTY Apr 1
13-0 vs EXSAD Mar 29
10-13 vs Lavked Mar 23
13-8 vs QWENTRY Mar 17
Overpass
Decider
RUST 13 – 5 ATRE
95%
5%
Win prob OT 2% ✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
After First Kill
RUST
ATRE
After First Death
RUST
ATRE
Opening Score
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Overpass
rustec
13-11 vs STATE Apr 3
13-7 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Apr 2
16-12 vs Nigel Mirage Mar 29
13-11 vs Metizport Mar 29
13-3 vs Hashiras Mar 23
atreides
13-16 vs QUAZAR Apr 3
13-9 vs Lavked Mar 23
14-16 vs QWENTRY Mar 17
13-8 vs Aurora Young Blud Feb 26
11-13 vs TDK Feb 11
Mirage
atreides pick
RUST 8 – 13 ATRE
29%
71%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
After First Kill
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
After First Death
RUST
ATRE
Schedule Strength
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Mirage
rustec
8-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
6-13 vs MANA Apr 1
5-13 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
13-2 vs Nigel Mirage Mar 29
13-9 vs MANA Mar 28
atreides
13-5 vs Clutchain fe Apr 18
2-13 vs UNiTY Apr 1
13-0 vs EXSAD Mar 29
10-13 vs Lavked Mar 23
13-8 vs QWENTRY Mar 17
Overpass
Decider
RUST 13 – 5 ATRE
95%
5%
Win prob OT 2% ✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
After First Kill
RUST
ATRE
After First Death
RUST
ATRE
Opening Score
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Overpass
rustec
13-11 vs STATE Apr 3
13-7 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Apr 2
16-12 vs Nigel Mirage Mar 29
13-11 vs Metizport Mar 29
13-3 vs Hashiras Mar 23
atreides
13-16 vs QUAZAR Apr 3
13-9 vs Lavked Mar 23
14-16 vs QWENTRY Mar 17
13-8 vs Aurora Young Blud Feb 26
11-13 vs TDK Feb 11
Nuke
RUST 13 – 9 ATRE
59%
41%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
Map Win Rate
RUST
ATRE
After First Death
RUST
ATRE
Round Win Rate
RUST
ATRE
T Side
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Nuke
rustec
13-9 vs STATE Apr 3
13-6 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Apr 2
13-7 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
13-5 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
2-13 vs Metizport Mar 29
atreides
13-1 vs Clutchain fe Apr 18
9-13 vs QUAZAR Apr 3
9-13 vs Lavked Mar 23
11-13 vs Hashiras Mar 16
5-13 vs brazylijski luz Mar 1
Mirage
atreides pick
RUST 8 – 13 ATRE
29%
71%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
After First Kill
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
After First Death
RUST
ATRE
Schedule Strength
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Mirage
rustec
8-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
6-13 vs MANA Apr 1
5-13 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
13-2 vs Nigel Mirage Mar 29
13-9 vs MANA Mar 28
atreides
13-5 vs Clutchain fe Apr 18
2-13 vs UNiTY Apr 1
13-0 vs EXSAD Mar 29
10-13 vs Lavked Mar 23
13-8 vs QWENTRY Mar 17
Overpass
Decider
RUST 13 – 5 ATRE
95%
5%
Win prob OT 2% ✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
After First Kill
RUST
ATRE
After First Death
RUST
ATRE
Opening Score
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Overpass
rustec
13-11 vs STATE Apr 3
13-7 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Apr 2
16-12 vs Nigel Mirage Mar 29
13-11 vs Metizport Mar 29
13-3 vs Hashiras Mar 23
atreides
13-16 vs QUAZAR Apr 3
13-9 vs Lavked Mar 23
14-16 vs QWENTRY Mar 17
13-8 vs Aurora Young Blud Feb 26
11-13 vs TDK Feb 11
Ancient
RUST 9 – 13 ATRE
33%
67%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
After First Kill
RUST
ATRE
Round Win Rate
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
Schedule Strength
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Ancient
rustec
11-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
13-7 vs Oxuji Mar 24
13-9 vs Nemesis Mar 9
3-13 vs K27 Feb 2
atreides
13-2 vs EXSAD Mar 29
13-2 vs brazylijski luz Mar 1
5-13 vs Aurora Young Blud Feb 26
13-8 vs CSDIILIT Feb 13
Recent Results last 11 matches
rustec
atreides
L 1-2 vs Nemesis Dust2AncientMirage Apr 8 18d ago
W 2-0 vs STATE NukeOverpass Apr 3 23d ago
W 2-0 vs ex-Zero Tenacity OverpassNuke Apr 2 24d ago
L 0-2 vs MANA MirageDust2 Apr 1 25d ago
W 2-1 vs ASTRAL Dust2AnubisNuke Apr 1 25d ago
W 2-1 vs Rune Eaters MirageDust2Nuke Mar 30 27d ago
W 2-0 vs Nigel Mirage OverpassMirage Mar 29 28d ago
W 2-1 vs Metizport NukeDust2Overpass Mar 29 28d ago
W 2-0 vs MANA Dust2Mirage Mar 28 29d ago
W 2-1 vs Oxuji AncientDust2Mirage Mar 24 33d ago
W 2-0 vs Hashiras Dust2Overpass Mar 23 34d ago
W 2-0 vs Clutchain fe MirageNuke Apr 18 8d ago
L 1-2 vs QUAZAR NukeInfernoOverpass Apr 3 23d ago
L 0-2 vs UNiTY MirageInferno Apr 1 25d ago
W 2-0 vs EXSAD AncientMirage Mar 29 28d ago
L 1-2 vs Lavked MirageOverpassNuke Mar 23 34d ago
L 1-2 vs QWENTRY MirageDust2Overpass Mar 17 40d ago
L 0-2 vs Hashiras InfernoNuke Mar 16 41d ago
W 2-1 vs brazylijski luz InfernoNukeAncient Mar 1 56d ago
W 2-1 vs brazylijski luz NukeInfernoMirage Feb 28 57d ago
W 2-1 vs Aurora Young Blud AncientOverpassMirage Feb 26 59d ago
L 0-2 vs QWENTRY MirageDust2 Feb 14 71d ago
Player Matchups
rustec
Rating 3.0
atreides
YO
youka
AWPADR 72.9KAST 71%
1.12 vs 1.20
SM
smekk
EntryADR 77.1KAST 74%
SU
supra
RiflerADR 75.3KAST 72%
1.09 vs 1.11
DE
DEPRESHN
AWPADR 72.8KAST 74%
JA
jakekeS
RiflerADR 73.7KAST 72%
1.06 vs 1.09
GO
Goody
RiflerADR 82.3KAST 71%
BR
Brilliance
RiflerADR 74.2KAST 71%
1.04 vs 0.96
DA
dan1
AWPADR 65.8KAST 70%
AN
anttzz
AWPADR 67.4KAST 70%
1.00 vs 0.87
CH
Chill
AWPADR 67.4KAST 66%
Unpredicted Maps 3 maps
Inferno
Decider
RUST 7 – 13 ATRE
14%
86%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
After First Death
RUST
ATRE
After First Kill
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
Ban Rate
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Inferno
rustec
no data
atreides
13-10 vs QUAZAR Apr 3
7-13 vs UNiTY Apr 1
10-13 vs Hashiras Mar 16
16-12 vs brazylijski luz Mar 1
13-10 vs brazylijski luz Feb 28
Ancient
RUST 9 – 13 ATRE
33%
67%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
After First Kill
RUST
ATRE
Round Win Rate
RUST
ATRE
Ranking
RUST
ATRE
Schedule Strength
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Ancient
rustec
11-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
13-7 vs Oxuji Mar 24
13-9 vs Nemesis Mar 9
3-13 vs K27 Feb 2
atreides
13-2 vs EXSAD Mar 29
13-2 vs brazylijski luz Mar 1
5-13 vs Aurora Young Blud Feb 26
13-8 vs CSDIILIT Feb 13
Nuke
RUST 13 – 9 ATRE
59%
41%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
ATRE
Map Win Rate
RUST
ATRE
After First Death
RUST
ATRE
Round Win Rate
RUST
ATRE
T Side
RUST
ATRE
Recent on Nuke
rustec
13-9 vs STATE Apr 3
13-6 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Apr 2
13-7 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
13-5 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
2-13 vs Metizport Mar 29
atreides
13-1 vs Clutchain fe Apr 18
9-13 vs QUAZAR Apr 3
9-13 vs Lavked Mar 23
11-13 vs Hashiras Mar 16
5-13 vs brazylijski luz Mar 1