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Bo3  ·  ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4
ex-ruby
vs
rustec ✓
16%
84%
Series win probability
RUST 2–1 62%
RUST 2–0 22%
EX-R 2–0 11%
EX-R 2–1 5%
Actual result
Mirage 13–10
Dust2 16–13
Overpass 16–13
Model Insights
rustec is strongly favored at 84%, holding a map advantage on 2 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#136 vs #91), a strong overpass (98% win probability). ex-ruby's best shot is mirage where they hold a 77% edge.
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 44% Mirage · Dust2 · Overpass
Scenario 2 34% Mirage · Dust2 · Nuke
Scenario 3 22% Mirage · Dust2 · Ancient
Mirage
EX-R 13 – 9 RUST
74%
26%
Win prob OT 9% ✓
Key factors
Head-to-Head
EX-R
RUST
Map Player Rating
EX-R
RUST
Ranking
EX-R
RUST
After First Death
EX-R
RUST
Opening Duels
EX-R
RUST
Recent on Mirage
ex-ruby
13-10 vs Oxuji Apr 20
9-13 vs TDK Apr 18
16-13 vs MOUZ NXT Apr 17
14-16 vs Phantom Apr 14
13-8 vs Metizport Apr 13
rustec
13-5 vs playersclub Apr 23
8-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
6-13 vs MANA Apr 1
5-13 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
13-2 vs Nigel Mirage Mar 29
Dust2
EX-R 8 – 13 RUST
16%
84%
Win prob OT 8% ✓
Key factors
Head-to-Head
EX-R
RUST
After First Kill
EX-R
RUST
Ranking
EX-R
RUST
Experience
EX-R
RUST
Round Win Rate
EX-R
RUST
Recent on Dust2
ex-ruby
6-13 vs playersclub Apr 23
13-6 vs Phantom Apr 14
13-9 vs TNC Apr 3
6-13 vs Nuclear TigeRES Mar 31
16-12 vs Bebop Mar 31
rustec
4-13 vs Hashiras Apr 22
13-9 vs Nemesis Apr 8
8-13 vs MANA Apr 1
6-13 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
13-6 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
Overpass
EX-R 6 – 13 RUST
7%
93%
Win prob OT 2% ✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
EX-R
RUST
After First Kill
EX-R
RUST
Head-to-Head
EX-R
RUST
Ranking
EX-R
RUST
Round Win Rate
EX-R
RUST
Recent on Overpass
ex-ruby
3-13 vs TDK Apr 18
6-13 vs Tricked Apr 8
13-9 vs Omega Mar 19
13-6 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Mar 15
16-12 vs los kogutos Mar 12
rustec
13-7 vs playersclub Apr 23
13-4 vs Atreides Apr 20
13-11 vs STATE Apr 3
13-7 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Apr 2
16-12 vs Nigel Mirage Mar 29
Mirage
EX-R 13 – 9 RUST
74%
26%
Win prob OT 9% ✓
Key factors
Head-to-Head
EX-R
RUST
Map Player Rating
EX-R
RUST
Ranking
EX-R
RUST
After First Death
EX-R
RUST
Opening Duels
EX-R
RUST
Recent on Mirage
ex-ruby
13-10 vs Oxuji Apr 20
9-13 vs TDK Apr 18
16-13 vs MOUZ NXT Apr 17
14-16 vs Phantom Apr 14
13-8 vs Metizport Apr 13
rustec
13-5 vs playersclub Apr 23
8-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
6-13 vs MANA Apr 1
5-13 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
13-2 vs Nigel Mirage Mar 29
Dust2
EX-R 8 – 13 RUST
16%
84%
Win prob OT 8% ✓
Key factors
Head-to-Head
EX-R
RUST
After First Kill
EX-R
RUST
Ranking
EX-R
RUST
Experience
EX-R
RUST
Round Win Rate
EX-R
RUST
Recent on Dust2
ex-ruby
6-13 vs playersclub Apr 23
13-6 vs Phantom Apr 14
13-9 vs TNC Apr 3
6-13 vs Nuclear TigeRES Mar 31
16-12 vs Bebop Mar 31
rustec
4-13 vs Hashiras Apr 22
13-9 vs Nemesis Apr 8
8-13 vs MANA Apr 1
6-13 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
13-6 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
Nuke
EX-R 10 – 13 RUST
36%
64%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
EX-R
RUST
Head-to-Head
EX-R
RUST
After First Death
EX-R
RUST
Ranking
EX-R
RUST
Map Player Rating
EX-R
RUST
Recent on Nuke
ex-ruby
5-13 vs playersclub Apr 23
13-5 vs MOUZ NXT Apr 17
13-4 vs Phantom Apr 14
10-13 vs Metizport Apr 13
9-13 vs STATE Apr 11
rustec
13-11 vs Atreides Apr 20
13-9 vs STATE Apr 3
13-6 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Apr 2
13-7 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
13-5 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
Mirage
EX-R 13 – 9 RUST
74%
26%
Win prob OT 9% ✓
Key factors
Head-to-Head
EX-R
RUST
Map Player Rating
EX-R
RUST
Ranking
EX-R
RUST
After First Death
EX-R
RUST
Opening Duels
EX-R
RUST
Recent on Mirage
ex-ruby
13-10 vs Oxuji Apr 20
9-13 vs TDK Apr 18
16-13 vs MOUZ NXT Apr 17
14-16 vs Phantom Apr 14
13-8 vs Metizport Apr 13
rustec
13-5 vs playersclub Apr 23
8-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
6-13 vs MANA Apr 1
5-13 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
13-2 vs Nigel Mirage Mar 29
Dust2
EX-R 8 – 13 RUST
16%
84%
Win prob OT 8% ✓
Key factors
Head-to-Head
EX-R
RUST
After First Kill
EX-R
RUST
Ranking
EX-R
RUST
Experience
EX-R
RUST
Round Win Rate
EX-R
RUST
Recent on Dust2
ex-ruby
6-13 vs playersclub Apr 23
13-6 vs Phantom Apr 14
13-9 vs TNC Apr 3
6-13 vs Nuclear TigeRES Mar 31
16-12 vs Bebop Mar 31
rustec
4-13 vs Hashiras Apr 22
13-9 vs Nemesis Apr 8
8-13 vs MANA Apr 1
6-13 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
13-6 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
Ancient
EX-R 11 – 13 RUST
45%
55%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
EX-R
RUST
After First Kill
EX-R
RUST
Head-to-Head
EX-R
RUST
Ranking
EX-R
RUST
After First Death
EX-R
RUST
Recent on Ancient
ex-ruby
13-8 vs playersclub Apr 23
13-10 vs Oxuji Apr 20
8-13 vs Metizport Apr 13
13-3 vs TNC Apr 3
14-16 vs Lavked Apr 1
rustec
11-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
13-7 vs Oxuji Mar 24
13-9 vs Nemesis Mar 9
3-13 vs K27 Feb 2
Recent Results last 11 matches
ex-ruby
rustec
L 1-2 vs playersclub AncientNukeDust2 Apr 23 3d ago
W 2-0 vs Oxuji AncientMirage Apr 20 6d ago
L 0-2 vs TDK MirageOverpass Apr 18 8d ago
W 2-0 vs MOUZ NXT NukeMirage Apr 17 9d ago
W 2-1 vs Phantom NukeMirageDust2 Apr 14 12d ago
L 1-2 vs Metizport MirageNukeAncient Apr 13 13d ago
W 2-1 vs STATE NukeMirageAnubis Apr 11 15d ago
L 0-2 vs Tricked OverpassMirage Apr 8 18d ago
W 2-1 vs STATE NukeMirageAnubis Apr 5 21d ago
W 2-0 vs TNC AncientDust2 Apr 3 23d ago
L 0-2 vs Lavked AncientNuke Apr 1 25d ago
W 2-0 vs playersclub OverpassMirage Apr 23 3d ago
L 0-2 vs Hashiras Dust2Inferno Apr 22 4d ago
W 2-1 vs Atreides InfernoNukeOverpass Apr 20 6d ago
L 1-2 vs Nemesis Dust2AncientMirage Apr 8 18d ago
W 2-0 vs STATE NukeOverpass Apr 3 23d ago
W 2-0 vs ex-Zero Tenacity OverpassNuke Apr 2 24d ago
L 0-2 vs MANA MirageDust2 Apr 1 25d ago
W 2-1 vs ASTRAL Dust2AnubisNuke Apr 1 25d ago
W 2-1 vs Rune Eaters MirageDust2Nuke Mar 30 27d ago
W 2-0 vs Nigel Mirage OverpassMirage Mar 29 28d ago
W 2-1 vs Metizport NukeDust2Overpass Mar 29 28d ago
Player Matchups
ex-ruby
Rating 3.0
rustec
KA
Kaide
AWPADR 83.9KAST 73%
1.13 vs 1.11
YO
youka
AWPADR 73.8KAST 72%
YU
YumsaN
AWPADR 72.0KAST 72%
1.05 vs 1.10
SU
supra
RiflerADR 75.7KAST 71%
SH
sh1nejezzz
RiflerADR 68.8KAST 74%
1.03 vs 1.06
BR
Brilliance
AWPADR 75.2KAST 71%
H4
H4SAN4TOR
AWPADR 76.6KAST 73%
1.03 vs 1.05
JA
jakekeS
AWPADR 72.5KAST 72%
— vs 1.00
AN
anttzz
AWPADR 66.6KAST 70%
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Inferno
EX-R 6 – 13 RUST
5%
95%
Win prob OT 3%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
EX-R
RUST
Head-to-Head
EX-R
RUST
After First Kill
EX-R
RUST
After First Death
EX-R
RUST
Round Win Rate
EX-R
RUST
Recent on Inferno
ex-ruby
no data
rustec
10-13 vs Hashiras Apr 22
5-13 vs Atreides Apr 20
Anubis
EX-R 7 – 13 RUST
10%
90%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
EX-R
RUST
After First Death
EX-R
RUST
Head-to-Head
EX-R
RUST
Ranking
EX-R
RUST
After First Kill
EX-R
RUST
Recent on Anubis
ex-ruby
16-14 vs STATE Apr 11
13-10 vs STATE Apr 5
10-13 vs Friendly Campers Mar 17
13-7 vs CYBERSHOKE Mar 13
7-13 vs TDK Feb 25
rustec
13-3 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
9-13 vs K27 Feb 2
Nuke
EX-R 10 – 13 RUST
36%
64%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
EX-R
RUST
Head-to-Head
EX-R
RUST
After First Death
EX-R
RUST
Ranking
EX-R
RUST
Map Player Rating
EX-R
RUST
Recent on Nuke
ex-ruby
5-13 vs playersclub Apr 23
13-5 vs MOUZ NXT Apr 17
13-4 vs Phantom Apr 14
10-13 vs Metizport Apr 13
9-13 vs STATE Apr 11
rustec
13-11 vs Atreides Apr 20
13-9 vs STATE Apr 3
13-6 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Apr 2
13-7 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
13-5 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
Ancient
EX-R 11 – 13 RUST
45%
55%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
EX-R
RUST
After First Kill
EX-R
RUST
Head-to-Head
EX-R
RUST
Ranking
EX-R
RUST
After First Death
EX-R
RUST
Recent on Ancient
ex-ruby
13-8 vs playersclub Apr 23
13-10 vs Oxuji Apr 20
8-13 vs Metizport Apr 13
13-3 vs TNC Apr 3
14-16 vs Lavked Apr 1
rustec
11-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
13-7 vs Oxuji Mar 24
13-9 vs Nemesis Mar 9
3-13 vs K27 Feb 2