Project Leggy
‹ Back
Bo3  ·  ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 Playoffs · 2026-04-26
rustec
vs
phantom
26%
74%
Series win probability
PHAN 2–0 52%
PHAN 2–1 21%
RUST 2–1 19%
RUST 2–0 8%
Model Insights
phantom is strongly favored at 74%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a significant ranking advantage (#101 vs #122), a strong dust2 (76% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 44% Dust2 · Nuke · Overpass
Scenario 2 29% Dust2 · Overpass · Mirage
Scenario 3 26% Dust2 · Overpass · Ancient
Dust2
rustec pick
RUST 10 – 13 PHAN
24%
76%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
After First Kill
RUST
PHAN
Round Win Rate
RUST
PHAN
Map Win Rate
RUST
PHAN
Ranking
RUST
PHAN
Map Player Rating
RUST
PHAN
Recent on Dust2
rustec
13-8 vs aimclub Apr 25
16-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 24
4-13 vs Hashiras Apr 22
13-9 vs Nemesis Apr 8
8-13 vs MANA Apr 1
phantom
16-12 vs Hashiras Apr 25
13-8 vs Atreides Apr 23
10-13 vs FAVBET Apr 18
7-13 vs GenOne Apr 16
6-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 14
Nuke
phantom pick
RUST 10 – 13 PHAN
31%
69%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Ranking
RUST
PHAN
After First Death
RUST
PHAN
Rating Spread
RUST
PHAN
Map Player Rating
RUST
PHAN
Map Win Rate
RUST
PHAN
Recent on Nuke
rustec
13-11 vs Atreides Apr 20
13-9 vs STATE Apr 3
13-6 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Apr 2
13-7 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
13-5 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
phantom
10-13 vs Hashiras Apr 25
6-13 vs GenOne Apr 16
7-13 vs Lavked Apr 15
4-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 14
9-13 vs Metizport Apr 14
Overpass
Decider
RUST 14 – 16 PHAN
47%
53%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
PHAN
After First Kill
RUST
PHAN
After First Death
RUST
PHAN
Round Win Rate
RUST
PHAN
Ranking
RUST
PHAN
Recent on Overpass
rustec
16-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 24
13-7 vs playersclub Apr 23
13-4 vs Atreides Apr 20
13-11 vs STATE Apr 3
13-7 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Apr 2
phantom
9-13 vs Metizport Apr 14
11-13 vs Sashi Feb 23
13-10 vs illwill Feb 23
13-8 vs SINNERS Feb 22
12-16 vs Young Ninjas Feb 21
Dust2
rustec pick
RUST 10 – 13 PHAN
24%
76%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
After First Kill
RUST
PHAN
Round Win Rate
RUST
PHAN
Map Win Rate
RUST
PHAN
Ranking
RUST
PHAN
Map Player Rating
RUST
PHAN
Recent on Dust2
rustec
13-8 vs aimclub Apr 25
16-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 24
4-13 vs Hashiras Apr 22
13-9 vs Nemesis Apr 8
8-13 vs MANA Apr 1
phantom
16-12 vs Hashiras Apr 25
13-8 vs Atreides Apr 23
10-13 vs FAVBET Apr 18
7-13 vs GenOne Apr 16
6-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 14
Overpass
Decider
RUST 14 – 16 PHAN
47%
53%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
PHAN
After First Kill
RUST
PHAN
After First Death
RUST
PHAN
Round Win Rate
RUST
PHAN
Ranking
RUST
PHAN
Recent on Overpass
rustec
16-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 24
13-7 vs playersclub Apr 23
13-4 vs Atreides Apr 20
13-11 vs STATE Apr 3
13-7 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Apr 2
phantom
9-13 vs Metizport Apr 14
11-13 vs Sashi Feb 23
13-10 vs illwill Feb 23
13-8 vs SINNERS Feb 22
12-16 vs Young Ninjas Feb 21
Mirage
RUST 7 – 13 PHAN
16%
84%
Win prob OT 7%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
PHAN
After First Death
RUST
PHAN
Ranking
RUST
PHAN
CT 4v5
RUST
PHAN
Sniper Score
RUST
PHAN
Recent on Mirage
rustec
10-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 24
13-5 vs playersclub Apr 23
8-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
6-13 vs MANA Apr 1
5-13 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
phantom
13-8 vs Atreides Apr 23
14-16 vs Lavked Apr 15
16-14 vs ex-RUBY Apr 14
16-14 vs Ursa Apr 10
14-16 vs BESTIA Apr 1
Dust2
rustec pick
RUST 10 – 13 PHAN
24%
76%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
After First Kill
RUST
PHAN
Round Win Rate
RUST
PHAN
Map Win Rate
RUST
PHAN
Ranking
RUST
PHAN
Map Player Rating
RUST
PHAN
Recent on Dust2
rustec
13-8 vs aimclub Apr 25
16-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 24
4-13 vs Hashiras Apr 22
13-9 vs Nemesis Apr 8
8-13 vs MANA Apr 1
phantom
16-12 vs Hashiras Apr 25
13-8 vs Atreides Apr 23
10-13 vs FAVBET Apr 18
7-13 vs GenOne Apr 16
6-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 14
Overpass
Decider
RUST 14 – 16 PHAN
47%
53%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
PHAN
After First Kill
RUST
PHAN
After First Death
RUST
PHAN
Round Win Rate
RUST
PHAN
Ranking
RUST
PHAN
Recent on Overpass
rustec
16-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 24
13-7 vs playersclub Apr 23
13-4 vs Atreides Apr 20
13-11 vs STATE Apr 3
13-7 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Apr 2
phantom
9-13 vs Metizport Apr 14
11-13 vs Sashi Feb 23
13-10 vs illwill Feb 23
13-8 vs SINNERS Feb 22
12-16 vs Young Ninjas Feb 21
Ancient
RUST 7 – 13 PHAN
17%
83%
Win prob OT 7%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
PHAN
After First Death
RUST
PHAN
Ranking
RUST
PHAN
After First Kill
RUST
PHAN
Experience
RUST
PHAN
Recent on Ancient
rustec
5-13 vs INOX Division Apr 25
11-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
13-7 vs Oxuji Mar 24
13-9 vs Nemesis Mar 9
3-13 vs K27 Feb 2
phantom
11-13 vs Hashiras Apr 25
6-13 vs Atreides Apr 23
14-16 vs FAVBET Apr 18
5-13 vs B8 Apr 1
16-13 vs AM Apr 1
Recent Results last 11 matches
rustec
phantom
W 2-0 vs aimclub Dust2Inferno Apr 25 1d ago
L 0-2 vs INOX Division AncientAnubis Apr 25 1d ago
W 2-1 vs ex-RUBY OverpassMirageDust2 Apr 24 2d ago
W 2-0 vs playersclub OverpassMirage Apr 23 3d ago
L 0-2 vs Hashiras Dust2Inferno Apr 22 4d ago
W 2-1 vs Atreides InfernoNukeOverpass Apr 20 6d ago
L 1-2 vs Nemesis Dust2AncientMirage Apr 8 18d ago
W 2-0 vs STATE NukeOverpass Apr 3 23d ago
W 2-0 vs ex-Zero Tenacity OverpassNuke Apr 2 24d ago
L 0-2 vs MANA MirageDust2 Apr 1 25d ago
W 2-1 vs ASTRAL Dust2AnubisNuke Apr 1 25d ago
L 1-2 vs Hashiras Dust2AncientNuke Apr 25 1d ago
W 2-1 vs Atreides MirageAncientDust2 Apr 23 3d ago
L 0-2 vs FAVBET AncientDust2 Apr 18 8d ago
L 0-2 vs GenOne Dust2Nuke Apr 16 10d ago
L 0-2 vs Lavked NukeMirage Apr 15 11d ago
L 1-2 vs ex-RUBY NukeMirageDust2 Apr 14 12d ago
L 0-2 vs Metizport NukeOverpass Apr 14 12d ago
W 2-0 vs HEROIC Academy NukeDust2 Apr 13 13d ago
W 2-1 vs Ursa Dust2NukeMirage Apr 10 16d ago
L 0-2 vs BESTIA NukeMirage Apr 1 25d ago
L 1-2 vs B8 NukeMirageAncient Apr 1 25d ago
Player Matchups
rustec
Rating 3.0
phantom
YO
youka
AWPADR 73.8KAST 72%
1.11 vs 1.10
KY
Kylar
RiflerADR 72.4KAST 72%
SU
supra
RiflerADR 75.7KAST 71%
1.10 vs 1.06
KE
KEi
AWPADR 77.8KAST 72%
BR
Brilliance
AWPADR 75.2KAST 71%
1.06 vs 1.02
MW
mwlky
AWPADR 68.2KAST 70%
JA
jakekeS
AWPADR 72.5KAST 72%
1.05 vs 1.00
KU
Kunai
RiflerADR 73.0KAST 69%
AN
anttzz
AWPADR 66.6KAST 70%
1.00 vs —
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Mirage
RUST 7 – 13 PHAN
16%
84%
Win prob OT 7%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
PHAN
After First Death
RUST
PHAN
Ranking
RUST
PHAN
CT 4v5
RUST
PHAN
Sniper Score
RUST
PHAN
Recent on Mirage
rustec
10-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 24
13-5 vs playersclub Apr 23
8-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
6-13 vs MANA Apr 1
5-13 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
phantom
13-8 vs Atreides Apr 23
14-16 vs Lavked Apr 15
16-14 vs ex-RUBY Apr 14
16-14 vs Ursa Apr 10
14-16 vs BESTIA Apr 1
Ancient
RUST 7 – 13 PHAN
17%
83%
Win prob OT 7%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
PHAN
After First Death
RUST
PHAN
Ranking
RUST
PHAN
After First Kill
RUST
PHAN
Experience
RUST
PHAN
Recent on Ancient
rustec
5-13 vs INOX Division Apr 25
11-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
13-7 vs Oxuji Mar 24
13-9 vs Nemesis Mar 9
3-13 vs K27 Feb 2
phantom
11-13 vs Hashiras Apr 25
6-13 vs Atreides Apr 23
14-16 vs FAVBET Apr 18
5-13 vs B8 Apr 1
16-13 vs AM Apr 1
Inferno
Decider
RUST 13 – 10 PHAN
64%
36%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
PHAN
After First Death
RUST
PHAN
After First Kill
RUST
PHAN
Ranking
RUST
PHAN
Star Player
RUST
PHAN
Recent on Inferno
rustec
13-4 vs aimclub Apr 25
10-13 vs Hashiras Apr 22
5-13 vs Atreides Apr 20
phantom
no data
Anubis
Decider
RUST 10 – 13 PHAN
37%
63%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
PHAN
After First Death
RUST
PHAN
Ranking
RUST
PHAN
Round Win Rate
RUST
PHAN
Map Win Rate
RUST
PHAN
Recent on Anubis
rustec
8-13 vs INOX Division Apr 25
13-3 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
9-13 vs K27 Feb 2
phantom
13-8 vs ASTRAL Mar 24
13-5 vs ASTRAL Mar 5
9-13 vs Lazer Cats Feb 26
10-13 vs Alliance Feb 17
13-10 vs Lazer Cats Feb 8