Bo3 · ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 Playoffs
· 2026-04-30
fnatic
vs
Phantom
44%
56%
Series win probability
PHAN
2–1
33%
FNAT
2–0
27%
PHAN
2–0
22%
FNAT
2–1
18%
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — Phantom is slightly favored at 55% but only leads on 2 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.06 vs 1.03), stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#93 vs #42), a strong dust2 (65% win probability). fnatic's best shot is anubis where they hold a 59% edge.
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
38%
Anubis · Overpass · Dust2
Scenario 2
35%
Anubis · Overpass · Mirage
Scenario 3
27%
Anubis · Overpass · Ancient
Anubis
FNAT
13
–
10
PHAN
59%
41%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
After First Death
FNAT
PHAN
Ranking
FNAT
PHAN
After First Kill
FNAT
PHAN
Clutch Score
FNAT
PHAN
Overall Rating
FNAT
PHAN
Recent on Anubis
fnatic
13-10
vs Leo
Apr 27
13-4
vs Rune Eaters
Apr 25
13-6
vs FaZe
Mar 31
9-13
vs alliance
Mar 31
10-13
vs MOUZ NXT
Mar 24
Phantom
13-8
vs ASTRAL
Mar 24
13-5
vs ASTRAL
Mar 5
9-13
vs Lazer Cats
Feb 26
10-13
vs alliance
Feb 17
13-10
vs Lazer Cats
Feb 8
Overpass
FNAT
9
–
13
PHAN
45%
55%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
FNAT
PHAN
Ranking
FNAT
PHAN
Clutch Score
FNAT
PHAN
CT Side
FNAT
PHAN
Round Win Rate
FNAT
PHAN
Recent on Overpass
fnatic
11-13
vs Tricked
Apr 23
13-5
vs FaZe
Mar 31
16-14
vs ENCE
Mar 5
5-13
vs betboom
Feb 27
8-13
vs inner circle
Feb 26
Phantom
9-13
vs metizport
Apr 14
13-10
vs illwill
Feb 23
11-13
vs sashi
Feb 23
13-8
vs sinners
Feb 22
13-7
vs acend
Feb 21
Dust2
FNAT
9
–
13
PHAN
35%
65%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
Ranking
FNAT
PHAN
Clutch Score
FNAT
PHAN
After First Kill
FNAT
PHAN
After First Death
FNAT
PHAN
Round Win Rate
FNAT
PHAN
Recent on Dust2
fnatic
13-5
vs Qual4
Apr 21
5-13
vs sashi
Mar 30
13-11
vs aimclub
Mar 24
10-13
vs inner circle
Feb 26
1-13
vs hotu
Feb 22
Phantom
13-7
vs GenOne
Apr 29
4-13
vs aAa
Apr 28
13-3
vs RUSTEC
Apr 26
16-12
vs Hashiras
Apr 25
13-8
vs Atreides
Apr 23
Anubis
FNAT
13
–
10
PHAN
59%
41%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
After First Death
FNAT
PHAN
Ranking
FNAT
PHAN
After First Kill
FNAT
PHAN
Clutch Score
FNAT
PHAN
Overall Rating
FNAT
PHAN
Recent on Anubis
fnatic
13-10
vs Leo
Apr 27
13-4
vs Rune Eaters
Apr 25
13-6
vs FaZe
Mar 31
9-13
vs alliance
Mar 31
10-13
vs MOUZ NXT
Mar 24
Phantom
13-8
vs ASTRAL
Mar 24
13-5
vs ASTRAL
Mar 5
9-13
vs Lazer Cats
Feb 26
10-13
vs alliance
Feb 17
13-10
vs Lazer Cats
Feb 8
Overpass
FNAT
9
–
13
PHAN
45%
55%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
FNAT
PHAN
Ranking
FNAT
PHAN
Clutch Score
FNAT
PHAN
CT Side
FNAT
PHAN
Round Win Rate
FNAT
PHAN
Recent on Overpass
fnatic
11-13
vs Tricked
Apr 23
13-5
vs FaZe
Mar 31
16-14
vs ENCE
Mar 5
5-13
vs betboom
Feb 27
8-13
vs inner circle
Feb 26
Phantom
9-13
vs metizport
Apr 14
13-10
vs illwill
Feb 23
11-13
vs sashi
Feb 23
13-8
vs sinners
Feb 22
13-7
vs acend
Feb 21
Mirage
FNAT
14
–
16
PHAN
49%
51%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
FNAT
PHAN
After First Kill
FNAT
PHAN
Clutch Score
FNAT
PHAN
Round Win Rate
FNAT
PHAN
Side Balance
FNAT
PHAN
Recent on Mirage
fnatic
10-13
vs Leo
Apr 27
10-13
vs Tricked
Apr 23
8-13
vs eyeballers
Apr 14
13-10
vs INFINITE
Mar 30
13-11
vs aimclub
Mar 24
Phantom
13-8
vs The Last Resort
Apr 27
13-11
vs RUSTEC
Apr 26
13-8
vs Atreides
Apr 23
14-16
vs Lavked
Apr 15
16-14
vs ex-ruby
Apr 14
Anubis
FNAT
13
–
10
PHAN
59%
41%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
After First Death
FNAT
PHAN
Ranking
FNAT
PHAN
After First Kill
FNAT
PHAN
Clutch Score
FNAT
PHAN
Overall Rating
FNAT
PHAN
Recent on Anubis
fnatic
13-10
vs Leo
Apr 27
13-4
vs Rune Eaters
Apr 25
13-6
vs FaZe
Mar 31
9-13
vs alliance
Mar 31
10-13
vs MOUZ NXT
Mar 24
Phantom
13-8
vs ASTRAL
Mar 24
13-5
vs ASTRAL
Mar 5
9-13
vs Lazer Cats
Feb 26
10-13
vs alliance
Feb 17
13-10
vs Lazer Cats
Feb 8
Overpass
FNAT
9
–
13
PHAN
45%
55%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
FNAT
PHAN
Ranking
FNAT
PHAN
Clutch Score
FNAT
PHAN
CT Side
FNAT
PHAN
Round Win Rate
FNAT
PHAN
Recent on Overpass
fnatic
11-13
vs Tricked
Apr 23
13-5
vs FaZe
Mar 31
16-14
vs ENCE
Mar 5
5-13
vs betboom
Feb 27
8-13
vs inner circle
Feb 26
Phantom
9-13
vs metizport
Apr 14
13-10
vs illwill
Feb 23
11-13
vs sashi
Feb 23
13-8
vs sinners
Feb 22
13-7
vs acend
Feb 21
Ancient
FNAT
10
–
13
PHAN
42%
58%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Ranking
FNAT
PHAN
Clutch Score
FNAT
PHAN
After First Death
FNAT
PHAN
Overall Rating
FNAT
PHAN
Opening Score
FNAT
PHAN
Recent on Ancient
fnatic
8-13
vs Nemesis
Apr 29
13-4
vs Leo
Apr 27
13-9
vs Rune Eaters
Apr 25
13-10
vs Project 91
Apr 23
5-13
vs sashi
Apr 12
Phantom
13-11
vs GenOne
Apr 29
13-7
vs aAa
Apr 28
11-13
vs The Last Resort
Apr 27
11-13
vs Hashiras
Apr 25
6-13
vs Atreides
Apr 23
Recent Results
last 11 matches
fnatic
Phantom
W
2-1
vs Leo
AncientMirageAnubis
Apr 27
3d ago
W
2-0
vs Rune Eaters
AncientAnubis
Apr 25
5d ago
L
0-2
vs Tricked
OverpassMirage
Apr 23
7d ago
W
2-0
vs Project 91
AncientInferno
Apr 23
7d ago
W
2-0
vs Qual4
Dust2Inferno
Apr 21
9d ago
L
0-1
vs eyeballers
Mirage
Apr 14
16d ago
L
0-1
vs sashi
Ancient
Apr 12
18d ago
W
2-0
vs FaZe
AnubisOverpass
Mar 31
30d ago
L
0-2
vs alliance
AnubisInferno
Mar 31
30d ago
L
1-2
vs sashi
AncientDust2Inferno
Mar 30
31d ago
W
2-0
vs INFINITE
AncientMirage
Mar 30
31d ago
W
2-1
vs aAa
Dust2AncientNuke
Apr 28
2d ago
W
2-1
vs The Last Resort
AncientMirageNuke
Apr 27
3d ago
W
2-0
vs RUSTEC
Dust2Mirage
Apr 26
4d ago
L
1-2
vs Hashiras
Dust2AncientNuke
Apr 25
5d ago
W
2-1
vs Atreides
MirageAncientDust2
Apr 23
7d ago
L
0-2
vs favbet
AncientDust2
Apr 18
12d ago
L
0-2
vs GenOne
Dust2Nuke
Apr 16
14d ago
L
0-2
vs Lavked
NukeMirage
Apr 15
15d ago
L
0-2
vs metizport
NukeOverpass
Apr 14
16d ago
L
1-2
vs ex-ruby
NukeMirageDust2
Apr 14
16d ago
W
2-0
vs HEROIC Academy
NukeDust2
Apr 13
17d ago
Player Matchups
fnatic
Ratings
Phantom
JA
jackasmo
EntryADR 86.5KAST 75%
KY
Kylar
EntryADR 72.8KAST 72%
JA
jambo
AWPADR 72.2KAST 72%
KE
KEi
RiflerADR 77.9KAST 72%
KR
KRIMZ
RiflerADR 70.7KAST 73%
MW
mwlky
AWPADR 70.5KAST 71%
BR
Br4tkO
RiflerADR 72.9KAST 73%
KU
Kunai
RiflerADR 73.7KAST 70%
FE
fEAR
RiflerADR 68.2KAST 72%
Unpredicted Maps
3 maps
Inferno
FNAT
13
–
5
PHAN
85%
15%
Win prob
OT 2%
Key factors
Ranking
FNAT
PHAN
After First Death
FNAT
PHAN
After First Kill
FNAT
PHAN
Opening Kills
FNAT
PHAN
Map Player Rating
FNAT
PHAN
Recent on Inferno
fnatic
5-13
vs Nemesis
Apr 29
13-8
vs Project 91
Apr 23
13-4
vs Qual4
Apr 21
13-16
vs alliance
Mar 31
7-13
vs sashi
Mar 30
Phantom
no data
Ancient
FNAT
10
–
13
PHAN
42%
58%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Ranking
FNAT
PHAN
Clutch Score
FNAT
PHAN
After First Death
FNAT
PHAN
Overall Rating
FNAT
PHAN
Opening Score
FNAT
PHAN
Recent on Ancient
fnatic
8-13
vs Nemesis
Apr 29
13-4
vs Leo
Apr 27
13-9
vs Rune Eaters
Apr 25
13-10
vs Project 91
Apr 23
5-13
vs sashi
Apr 12
Phantom
13-11
vs GenOne
Apr 29
13-7
vs aAa
Apr 28
11-13
vs The Last Resort
Apr 27
11-13
vs Hashiras
Apr 25
6-13
vs Atreides
Apr 23
Mirage
FNAT
14
–
16
PHAN
49%
51%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
FNAT
PHAN
After First Kill
FNAT
PHAN
Clutch Score
FNAT
PHAN
Round Win Rate
FNAT
PHAN
Side Balance
FNAT
PHAN
Recent on Mirage
fnatic
10-13
vs Leo
Apr 27
10-13
vs Tricked
Apr 23
8-13
vs eyeballers
Apr 14
13-10
vs INFINITE
Mar 30
13-11
vs aimclub
Mar 24
Phantom
13-8
vs The Last Resort
Apr 27
13-11
vs RUSTEC
Apr 26
13-8
vs Atreides
Apr 23
14-16
vs Lavked
Apr 15
16-14
vs ex-ruby
Apr 14