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Bo3  ·  ESL Challenger League Season 51 Oceania Cup 4 · 2026-04-26
time waves
vs
skele
16%
84%
Series win probability
SKEL 2–0 55%
SKEL 2–1 29%
TW 2–1 9%
TW 2–0 7%
Model Insights
skele is strongly favored at 84%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a significant ranking advantage (#290 vs #349), a strong dust2 (76% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 38% Inferno · Mirage · Dust2
Scenario 2 37% Inferno · Mirage · Ancient
Scenario 3 25% Inferno · Mirage · Nuke
Inferno
TW 7 – 13 SKEL
25%
75%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
After First Kill
TW
SKEL
Ranking
TW
SKEL
After First Death
TW
SKEL
Pick Rate
TW
SKEL
Opening Score
TW
SKEL
Recent on Inferno
time waves
12-16 vs The Bardolphs Apr 11
5-13 vs Ding Cuts Apr 11
5-13 vs Mindfreak Apr 3
2-13 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER Mar 15
5-13 vs Rooster Mar 11
skele
9-13 vs SemperFi Mar 12
4-13 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER Feb 20
Mirage
TW 7 – 13 SKEL
27%
73%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
TW
SKEL
After First Kill
TW
SKEL
Ranking
TW
SKEL
After First Death
TW
SKEL
Map Player Rating
TW
SKEL
Recent on Mirage
time waves
8-13 vs Ding Cuts Apr 11
1-13 vs Underground Feb 20
13-10 vs Exsto Feb 19
4-13 vs Underground Feb 19
8-13 vs Mindfreak Feb 18
skele
8-13 vs Rooster Apr 6
11-13 vs Arcade Mar 12
1-13 vs SemperFi Mar 12
3-13 vs Mindfreak Feb 22
13-8 vs LE-LUX Feb 21
Dust2
TW 7 – 13 SKEL
24%
76%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Ranking
TW
SKEL
Ban Rate
TW
SKEL
T Side
TW
SKEL
After First Kill
TW
SKEL
Map Win Rate
TW
SKEL
Recent on Dust2
time waves
2-13 vs Rooster Apr 12
16-13 vs The Bardolphs Apr 11
10-13 vs Arcade Apr 5
4-13 vs Mindfreak Apr 3
3-13 vs Rooster Mar 15
skele
5-13 vs Rooster Apr 6
3-13 vs Rooster Apr 3
13-9 vs LE-LUX Feb 21
1-13 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER Feb 20
13-10 vs LE-LUX Feb 18
Inferno
TW 7 – 13 SKEL
25%
75%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
After First Kill
TW
SKEL
Ranking
TW
SKEL
After First Death
TW
SKEL
Pick Rate
TW
SKEL
Opening Score
TW
SKEL
Recent on Inferno
time waves
12-16 vs The Bardolphs Apr 11
5-13 vs Ding Cuts Apr 11
5-13 vs Mindfreak Apr 3
2-13 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER Mar 15
5-13 vs Rooster Mar 11
skele
9-13 vs SemperFi Mar 12
4-13 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER Feb 20
Mirage
TW 7 – 13 SKEL
27%
73%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
TW
SKEL
After First Kill
TW
SKEL
Ranking
TW
SKEL
After First Death
TW
SKEL
Map Player Rating
TW
SKEL
Recent on Mirage
time waves
8-13 vs Ding Cuts Apr 11
1-13 vs Underground Feb 20
13-10 vs Exsto Feb 19
4-13 vs Underground Feb 19
8-13 vs Mindfreak Feb 18
skele
8-13 vs Rooster Apr 6
11-13 vs Arcade Mar 12
1-13 vs SemperFi Mar 12
3-13 vs Mindfreak Feb 22
13-8 vs LE-LUX Feb 21
Ancient
TW 7 – 13 SKEL
15%
85%
Win prob OT 5%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
TW
SKEL
After First Kill
TW
SKEL
After First Death
TW
SKEL
Round Win Rate
TW
SKEL
Ranking
TW
SKEL
Recent on Ancient
time waves
6-13 vs Underground Feb 20
3-13 vs Underground Feb 19
skele
13-16 vs Abyssal Feb 19
Inferno
TW 7 – 13 SKEL
25%
75%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
After First Kill
TW
SKEL
Ranking
TW
SKEL
After First Death
TW
SKEL
Pick Rate
TW
SKEL
Opening Score
TW
SKEL
Recent on Inferno
time waves
12-16 vs The Bardolphs Apr 11
5-13 vs Ding Cuts Apr 11
5-13 vs Mindfreak Apr 3
2-13 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER Mar 15
5-13 vs Rooster Mar 11
skele
9-13 vs SemperFi Mar 12
4-13 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER Feb 20
Mirage
TW 7 – 13 SKEL
27%
73%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
TW
SKEL
After First Kill
TW
SKEL
Ranking
TW
SKEL
After First Death
TW
SKEL
Map Player Rating
TW
SKEL
Recent on Mirage
time waves
8-13 vs Ding Cuts Apr 11
1-13 vs Underground Feb 20
13-10 vs Exsto Feb 19
4-13 vs Underground Feb 19
8-13 vs Mindfreak Feb 18
skele
8-13 vs Rooster Apr 6
11-13 vs Arcade Mar 12
1-13 vs SemperFi Mar 12
3-13 vs Mindfreak Feb 22
13-8 vs LE-LUX Feb 21
Nuke
TW 7 – 13 SKEL
15%
85%
Win prob OT 5%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
TW
SKEL
After First Death
TW
SKEL
After First Kill
TW
SKEL
Ranking
TW
SKEL
Best Player
TW
SKEL
Recent on Nuke
time waves
13-7 vs The Bardolphs Apr 11
7-13 vs Arcade Apr 5
3-13 vs Rooster Mar 15
6-13 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER Mar 11
6-13 vs BBBMBCBS Feb 21
skele
9-13 vs Arcade Mar 12
10-13 vs Abyssal Feb 19
Recent Results last 11 matches
time waves
skele
L 0-2 vs Rooster AnubisDust2 Apr 12 14d ago
W 2-1 vs The Bardolphs Dust2InfernoNuke Apr 11 15d ago
L 0-2 vs Ding Cuts MirageInferno Apr 11 15d ago
L 0-2 vs Arcade NukeDust2 Apr 5 21d ago
L 0-2 vs Mindfreak InfernoDust2 Apr 3 23d ago
L 0-2 vs Rooster NukeDust2 Mar 15 42d ago
L 0-1 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER Inferno Mar 15 42d ago
L 0-2 vs Rooster InfernoOverpass Mar 11 46d ago
L 0-2 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER InfernoNuke Mar 11 46d ago
L 0-2 vs BBBMBCBS NukeInferno Feb 21 64d ago
L 0-2 vs Underground AncientMirage Feb 20 65d ago
L 0-2 vs Rooster MirageDust2 Apr 6 20d ago
L 0-2 vs Rooster Dust2Overpass Apr 3 23d ago
L 0-2 vs Arcade MirageNuke Mar 12 45d ago
L 0-2 vs SemperFi MirageInferno Mar 12 45d ago
L 0-2 vs Mindfreak MirageOverpass Feb 22 63d ago
W 2-0 vs LE-LUX MirageDust2 Feb 21 64d ago
L 0-2 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER Dust2Inferno Feb 20 65d ago
L 1-2 vs Abyssal MirageNukeAncient Feb 19 66d ago
W 2-0 vs LE-LUX Dust2Mirage Feb 18 67d ago
Player Matchups
time waves
Rating 3.0
skele
LA
lawlkay
RiflerADR 68.6KAST 64%
0.98 vs 0.95
TI
tidy
AWPADR 64.6KAST 67%
CA
camille
RiflerADR 66.6KAST 64%
0.89 vs 0.90
MO
motion
AWPADR 65.1KAST 64%
EL
ElephanT
AWPADR 67.2KAST 63%
0.85 vs 0.86
OA
Oath
RiflerADR 68.6KAST 64%
HA
Harbor
AWPADR 63.0KAST 65%
0.82 vs 0.83
NE
neo
AWPADR 69.6KAST 62%
KE
Kezza
RiflerADR 60.1KAST 62%
0.79 vs —
Unpredicted Maps 3 maps
Overpass
TW 6 – 13 SKEL
4%
96%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
TW
SKEL
After First Kill
TW
SKEL
Ranking
TW
SKEL
Round Win Rate
TW
SKEL
After First Death
TW
SKEL
Recent on Overpass
time waves
5-13 vs Rooster Mar 11
skele
11-13 vs Rooster Apr 3
6-13 vs Mindfreak Feb 22
Ancient
TW 7 – 13 SKEL
15%
85%
Win prob OT 5%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
TW
SKEL
After First Kill
TW
SKEL
After First Death
TW
SKEL
Round Win Rate
TW
SKEL
Ranking
TW
SKEL
Recent on Ancient
time waves
6-13 vs Underground Feb 20
3-13 vs Underground Feb 19
skele
13-16 vs Abyssal Feb 19
Nuke
TW 7 – 13 SKEL
15%
85%
Win prob OT 5%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
TW
SKEL
After First Death
TW
SKEL
After First Kill
TW
SKEL
Ranking
TW
SKEL
Best Player
TW
SKEL
Recent on Nuke
time waves
13-7 vs The Bardolphs Apr 11
7-13 vs Arcade Apr 5
3-13 vs Rooster Mar 15
6-13 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER Mar 11
6-13 vs BBBMBCBS Feb 21
skele
9-13 vs Arcade Mar 12
10-13 vs Abyssal Feb 19