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Bo3  ·  XP Game Fest 2026
mana
vs
atreides ✓
12%
88%
Series win probability
ATRE 2–0 77%
ATRE 2–1 11%
MANA 2–1 11%
MANA 2–0 1%
Actual result
Dust2 13–4
Model Insights
atreides is strongly favored at 88%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#167 vs #112), a strong mirage (95% win probability). mana's best shot is inferno where they hold a 59% edge.
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 47% Dust2 · Mirage · Inferno
Scenario 2 36% Dust2 · Mirage · Ancient
Scenario 3 17% Dust2 · Mirage · Nuke
Dust2
mana pick
MANA 8 – 13 ATRE
14%
86%
Win prob OT 9% ✓
Key factors
Round Win Rate
MANA
ATRE
Head-to-Head
MANA
ATRE
Ranking
MANA
ATRE
Map Win Rate
MANA
ATRE
Utility Score
MANA
ATRE
Recent on Dust2
mana
4-13 vs TDK Apr 15
22-18 vs Hashiras Apr 10
13-3 vs Famalicão Apr 9
9-13 vs TNC Apr 6
13-9 vs UNiTY Apr 5
atreides
8-13 vs Phantom Apr 23
13-11 vs Famalicão Apr 23
13-8 vs VP.Prodigy Apr 22
9-13 vs QWENTRY Mar 17
9-13 vs QWENTRY Feb 14
Mirage
atreides pick
MANA 6 – 13 ATRE
10%
90%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
After First Death
MANA
ATRE
Head-to-Head
MANA
ATRE
Map Player Rating
MANA
ATRE
Ranking
MANA
ATRE
After First Kill
MANA
ATRE
Recent on Mirage
mana
13-3 vs The Last Resort Apr 23
8-13 vs Bebop Apr 19
3-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Apr 17
13-2 vs Persona Grata Apr 12
13-6 vs HEROIC Academy Apr 4
atreides
8-13 vs Phantom Apr 23
13-3 vs BRUTE Apr 23
13-3 vs Famalicão Apr 23
16-13 vs BASEMENT BOYS Apr 22
13-5 vs Clutchain fe Apr 18
Inferno
Decider
MANA 13 – 11 ATRE
50%
50%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Head-to-Head
MANA
ATRE
Ranking
MANA
ATRE
Map Player Rating
MANA
ATRE
After First Kill
MANA
ATRE
After First Death
MANA
ATRE
Recent on Inferno
mana
5-13 vs Bebop Apr 19
13-7 vs Hashiras Apr 10
13-7 vs Famalicão Apr 9
13-6 vs UNiTY Apr 5
8-13 vs ECSTATIC Mar 31
atreides
7-13 vs BRUTE Apr 23
8-13 vs BASEMENT BOYS Apr 22
13-5 vs RUSTEC Apr 20
13-10 vs QUAZAR Apr 3
7-13 vs UNiTY Apr 1
Dust2
mana pick
MANA 8 – 13 ATRE
14%
86%
Win prob OT 9% ✓
Key factors
Round Win Rate
MANA
ATRE
Head-to-Head
MANA
ATRE
Ranking
MANA
ATRE
Map Win Rate
MANA
ATRE
Utility Score
MANA
ATRE
Recent on Dust2
mana
4-13 vs TDK Apr 15
22-18 vs Hashiras Apr 10
13-3 vs Famalicão Apr 9
9-13 vs TNC Apr 6
13-9 vs UNiTY Apr 5
atreides
8-13 vs Phantom Apr 23
13-11 vs Famalicão Apr 23
13-8 vs VP.Prodigy Apr 22
9-13 vs QWENTRY Mar 17
9-13 vs QWENTRY Feb 14
Mirage
atreides pick
MANA 6 – 13 ATRE
10%
90%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
After First Death
MANA
ATRE
Head-to-Head
MANA
ATRE
Map Player Rating
MANA
ATRE
Ranking
MANA
ATRE
After First Kill
MANA
ATRE
Recent on Mirage
mana
13-3 vs The Last Resort Apr 23
8-13 vs Bebop Apr 19
3-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Apr 17
13-2 vs Persona Grata Apr 12
13-6 vs HEROIC Academy Apr 4
atreides
8-13 vs Phantom Apr 23
13-3 vs BRUTE Apr 23
13-3 vs Famalicão Apr 23
16-13 vs BASEMENT BOYS Apr 22
13-5 vs Clutchain fe Apr 18
Ancient
MANA 5 – 13 ATRE
6%
94%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
After First Kill
MANA
ATRE
Map Player Rating
MANA
ATRE
Head-to-Head
MANA
ATRE
Round Win Rate
MANA
ATRE
Ranking
MANA
ATRE
Recent on Ancient
mana
13-6 vs The Last Resort Apr 23
8-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Apr 17
20-22 vs TNC Apr 6
3-13 vs HEROIC Academy Apr 4
4-13 vs Johnny Speeds Apr 3
atreides
13-6 vs Phantom Apr 23
13-7 vs VP.Prodigy Apr 22
13-2 vs EXSAD Mar 29
13-2 vs brazylijski luz Mar 1
5-13 vs Aurora Young Blud Feb 26
Dust2
mana pick
MANA 8 – 13 ATRE
14%
86%
Win prob OT 9% ✓
Key factors
Round Win Rate
MANA
ATRE
Head-to-Head
MANA
ATRE
Ranking
MANA
ATRE
Map Win Rate
MANA
ATRE
Utility Score
MANA
ATRE
Recent on Dust2
mana
4-13 vs TDK Apr 15
22-18 vs Hashiras Apr 10
13-3 vs Famalicão Apr 9
9-13 vs TNC Apr 6
13-9 vs UNiTY Apr 5
atreides
8-13 vs Phantom Apr 23
13-11 vs Famalicão Apr 23
13-8 vs VP.Prodigy Apr 22
9-13 vs QWENTRY Mar 17
9-13 vs QWENTRY Feb 14
Mirage
atreides pick
MANA 6 – 13 ATRE
10%
90%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
After First Death
MANA
ATRE
Head-to-Head
MANA
ATRE
Map Player Rating
MANA
ATRE
Ranking
MANA
ATRE
After First Kill
MANA
ATRE
Recent on Mirage
mana
13-3 vs The Last Resort Apr 23
8-13 vs Bebop Apr 19
3-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Apr 17
13-2 vs Persona Grata Apr 12
13-6 vs HEROIC Academy Apr 4
atreides
8-13 vs Phantom Apr 23
13-3 vs BRUTE Apr 23
13-3 vs Famalicão Apr 23
16-13 vs BASEMENT BOYS Apr 22
13-5 vs Clutchain fe Apr 18
Nuke
MANA 8 – 13 ATRE
10%
90%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
MANA
ATRE
Head-to-Head
MANA
ATRE
Ranking
MANA
ATRE
Map Win Rate
MANA
ATRE
Utility Score
MANA
ATRE
Recent on Nuke
mana
11-13 vs Hashiras Apr 10
5-13 vs ex-RUBY Mar 23
13-5 vs AKA HERO KAJO Mar 18
13-5 vs CSDIILIT Mar 13
10-13 vs QWENTRY Mar 9
atreides
19-16 vs BASEMENT BOYS Apr 22
11-13 vs RUSTEC Apr 20
13-1 vs Clutchain fe Apr 18
9-13 vs QUAZAR Apr 3
9-13 vs Lavked Mar 23
Recent Results last 11 matches
mana
atreides
W 2-0 vs The Last Resort AncientMirage Apr 23 3d ago
L 0-2 vs Bebop MirageInferno Apr 19 7d ago
L 0-2 vs CYBERSHOKE MirageAncient Apr 17 9d ago
L 0-2 vs TDK Dust2Anubis Apr 15 11d ago
W 2-0 vs Persona Grata MirageOverpass Apr 12 14d ago
W 2-1 vs Hashiras NukeDust2Inferno Apr 10 16d ago
W 2-1 vs Famalicão AnubisDust2Inferno Apr 9 17d ago
L 0-2 vs TNC Dust2Ancient Apr 6 20d ago
W 2-0 vs UNiTY Dust2Inferno Apr 5 21d ago
W 2-1 vs HEROIC Academy AncientDust2Mirage Apr 4 22d ago
L 0-2 vs Johnny Speeds AncientMirage Apr 3 23d ago
L 1-2 vs Phantom MirageAncientDust2 Apr 23 3d ago
L 1-2 vs BRUTE MirageOverpassInferno Apr 23 3d ago
W 2-0 vs Famalicão Dust2Mirage Apr 23 3d ago
W 2-1 vs BASEMENT BOYS InfernoNukeMirage Apr 22 4d ago
W 2-0 vs VP.Prodigy AncientDust2 Apr 22 4d ago
L 1-2 vs RUSTEC InfernoNukeOverpass Apr 20 6d ago
W 2-0 vs Clutchain fe MirageNuke Apr 18 8d ago
L 1-2 vs QUAZAR NukeInfernoOverpass Apr 3 23d ago
L 0-2 vs UNiTY MirageInferno Apr 1 25d ago
W 2-0 vs EXSAD AncientMirage Mar 29 28d ago
L 1-2 vs Lavked MirageOverpassNuke Mar 23 34d ago
Player Matchups
mana
Rating 3.0
atreides
AM
ammar
AWPADR 72.2KAST 74%
1.11 vs 1.14
DE
DEPRESHN
AWPADR 73.8KAST 74%
CA
Caleyy
RiflerADR 76.6KAST 70%
1.08 vs 1.14
SM
smekk
RiflerADR 74.2KAST 75%
BL
BledarD
AWPADR 74.7KAST 71%
1.06 vs 1.09
GO
Goody
AWPADR 81.9KAST 72%
SE
SENER1
AWPADR 72.8KAST 72%
1.03 vs 1.02
DA
dan1
RiflerADR 67.6KAST 71%
CE
cerber
AWPADR 72.0KAST 71%
1.01 vs 0.95
CH
Chill
RiflerADR 72.4KAST 68%
Unpredicted Maps 3 maps
Ancient
MANA 5 – 13 ATRE
6%
94%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
After First Kill
MANA
ATRE
Map Player Rating
MANA
ATRE
Head-to-Head
MANA
ATRE
Round Win Rate
MANA
ATRE
Ranking
MANA
ATRE
Recent on Ancient
mana
13-6 vs The Last Resort Apr 23
8-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Apr 17
20-22 vs TNC Apr 6
3-13 vs HEROIC Academy Apr 4
4-13 vs Johnny Speeds Apr 3
atreides
13-6 vs Phantom Apr 23
13-7 vs VP.Prodigy Apr 22
13-2 vs EXSAD Mar 29
13-2 vs brazylijski luz Mar 1
5-13 vs Aurora Young Blud Feb 26
Nuke
MANA 8 – 13 ATRE
10%
90%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
MANA
ATRE
Head-to-Head
MANA
ATRE
Ranking
MANA
ATRE
Map Win Rate
MANA
ATRE
Utility Score
MANA
ATRE
Recent on Nuke
mana
11-13 vs Hashiras Apr 10
5-13 vs ex-RUBY Mar 23
13-5 vs AKA HERO KAJO Mar 18
13-5 vs CSDIILIT Mar 13
10-13 vs QWENTRY Mar 9
atreides
19-16 vs BASEMENT BOYS Apr 22
11-13 vs RUSTEC Apr 20
13-1 vs Clutchain fe Apr 18
9-13 vs QUAZAR Apr 3
9-13 vs Lavked Mar 23
Overpass
Decider
MANA 8 – 13 ATRE
18%
82%
Win prob OT 7%
Key factors
Head-to-Head
MANA
ATRE
Ranking
MANA
ATRE
After First Kill
MANA
ATRE
Map Win Rate
MANA
ATRE
Ban Rate
MANA
ATRE
Recent on Overpass
mana
13-11 vs Persona Grata Apr 12
8-13 vs ECSTATIC Mar 31
13-4 vs The Last Resort Mar 21
4-13 vs HOTU Feb 13
atreides
13-16 vs BRUTE Apr 23
4-13 vs RUSTEC Apr 20
13-16 vs QUAZAR Apr 3
13-9 vs Lavked Mar 23
14-16 vs QWENTRY Mar 17