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Bo3  ·  CCT 2026 Europe Series 1 Closed Qualifier · 2026-05-01
STATE
vs
Ursa
36%
64%
Series win probability
URSA 2–0 34%
URSA 2–1 30%
STAT 2–1 19%
STAT 2–0 17%
Model Insights
Ursa has a moderate edge at 64%, favored on 3 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.10 vs 1.04), a strong inferno (65% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 47% Inferno · Nuke · Overpass
Scenario 2 28% Inferno · Nuke · Mirage
Scenario 3 25% Inferno · Nuke · Anubis
Inferno
STAT 9 – 13 URSA
35%
65%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
STAT
URSA
Clutch Score
STAT
URSA
After First Death
STAT
URSA
Ranking
STAT
URSA
Elo Diff
STAT
URSA
Recent on Inferno
STATE
13-10 vs BRUTE Apr 28
10-13 vs Sashi Academy Apr 26
13-4 vs ESC Apr 7
8-13 vs Nemesis Mar 31
13-4 vs Bebop Mar 30
Ursa
5-13 vs Lilmix Apr 28
13-3 vs BRUTE Apr 27
5-13 vs Walczaki Apr 26
13-7 vs GenOne Apr 22
6-13 vs ESC Apr 16
Nuke
STAT 11 – 13 URSA
47%
53%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
STAT
URSA
After First Kill
STAT
URSA
Clutch Score
STAT
URSA
Ranking
STAT
URSA
Round Win Rate
STAT
URSA
Recent on Nuke
STATE
13-5 vs Sashi Academy Apr 26
13-7 vs MASONIC Apr 26
9-13 vs XI Apr 25
13-9 vs ex-ruby Apr 11
9-13 vs ESC Apr 7
Ursa
5-13 vs Walczaki Apr 26
9-13 vs betboom Apr 24
16-14 vs Bebop Apr 21
17-19 vs ESC Apr 16
13-5 vs Leo Apr 12
Overpass
STAT 11 – 13 URSA
39%
61%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
STAT
URSA
Round Win Rate
STAT
URSA
T Side
STAT
URSA
After First Death
STAT
URSA
Ranking
STAT
URSA
Recent on Overpass
STATE
10-13 vs Lilmix Apr 27
13-3 vs MASONIC Apr 26
13-0 vs XI Apr 25
13-10 vs ENCE Apr 6
11-13 vs RUSTEC Apr 3
Ursa
8-13 vs BRUTE Apr 27
19-16 vs GenOne Apr 22
9-13 vs big Apr 9
6-13 vs johnny speeds Apr 7
5-13 vs ECSTATIC Apr 2
Inferno
STAT 9 – 13 URSA
35%
65%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
STAT
URSA
Clutch Score
STAT
URSA
After First Death
STAT
URSA
Ranking
STAT
URSA
Elo Diff
STAT
URSA
Recent on Inferno
STATE
13-10 vs BRUTE Apr 28
10-13 vs Sashi Academy Apr 26
13-4 vs ESC Apr 7
8-13 vs Nemesis Mar 31
13-4 vs Bebop Mar 30
Ursa
5-13 vs Lilmix Apr 28
13-3 vs BRUTE Apr 27
5-13 vs Walczaki Apr 26
13-7 vs GenOne Apr 22
6-13 vs ESC Apr 16
Nuke
STAT 11 – 13 URSA
47%
53%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
STAT
URSA
After First Kill
STAT
URSA
Clutch Score
STAT
URSA
Ranking
STAT
URSA
Round Win Rate
STAT
URSA
Recent on Nuke
STATE
13-5 vs Sashi Academy Apr 26
13-7 vs MASONIC Apr 26
9-13 vs XI Apr 25
13-9 vs ex-ruby Apr 11
9-13 vs ESC Apr 7
Ursa
5-13 vs Walczaki Apr 26
9-13 vs betboom Apr 24
16-14 vs Bebop Apr 21
17-19 vs ESC Apr 16
13-5 vs Leo Apr 12
Mirage
STAT 9 – 13 URSA
38%
62%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
Clutch Score
STAT
URSA
T Side
STAT
URSA
After First Death
STAT
URSA
After First Kill
STAT
URSA
Round Win Rate
STAT
URSA
Recent on Mirage
STATE
16-12 vs Lilmix Apr 27
7-13 vs ex-ruby Apr 11
7-13 vs ENCE Apr 6
4-13 vs ex-ruby Apr 5
13-10 vs Bebop Mar 30
Ursa
10-13 vs Lilmix Apr 28
4-13 vs MOUZ NXT Apr 19
14-16 vs Phantom Apr 10
13-10 vs Persona Grata Apr 3
8-13 vs Just Players Apr 1
Inferno
STAT 9 – 13 URSA
35%
65%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
STAT
URSA
Clutch Score
STAT
URSA
After First Death
STAT
URSA
Ranking
STAT
URSA
Elo Diff
STAT
URSA
Recent on Inferno
STATE
13-10 vs BRUTE Apr 28
10-13 vs Sashi Academy Apr 26
13-4 vs ESC Apr 7
8-13 vs Nemesis Mar 31
13-4 vs Bebop Mar 30
Ursa
5-13 vs Lilmix Apr 28
13-3 vs BRUTE Apr 27
5-13 vs Walczaki Apr 26
13-7 vs GenOne Apr 22
6-13 vs ESC Apr 16
Nuke
STAT 11 – 13 URSA
47%
53%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
STAT
URSA
After First Kill
STAT
URSA
Clutch Score
STAT
URSA
Ranking
STAT
URSA
Round Win Rate
STAT
URSA
Recent on Nuke
STATE
13-5 vs Sashi Academy Apr 26
13-7 vs MASONIC Apr 26
9-13 vs XI Apr 25
13-9 vs ex-ruby Apr 11
9-13 vs ESC Apr 7
Ursa
5-13 vs Walczaki Apr 26
9-13 vs betboom Apr 24
16-14 vs Bebop Apr 21
17-19 vs ESC Apr 16
13-5 vs Leo Apr 12
Anubis
STAT 8 – 13 URSA
37%
63%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
STAT
URSA
Opening Kills
STAT
URSA
Clutch Score
STAT
URSA
After First Death
STAT
URSA
T Side
STAT
URSA
Recent on Anubis
STATE
13-8 vs BRUTE Apr 28
14-16 vs ex-ruby Apr 11
10-13 vs ex-ruby Apr 5
7-13 vs BIG Academy Mar 26
8-13 vs Rune Eaters Mar 13
Ursa
13-9 vs betboom Apr 24
9-13 vs big Apr 9
13-2 vs Persona Grata Apr 3
13-11 vs ECSTATIC Apr 2
13-10 vs Leo Mar 25
Recent Results last 11 matches
STATE
Ursa
W 2-0 vs BRUTE InfernoAnubis Apr 28 2d ago
L 1-2 vs Lilmix AncientMirageOverpass Apr 27 3d ago
W 2-1 vs Sashi Academy InfernoNukeAncient Apr 26 4d ago
W 2-1 vs MASONIC AncientOverpassNuke Apr 26 4d ago
W 2-1 vs XI AncientNukeOverpass Apr 25 5d ago
L 1-2 vs ex-ruby NukeMirageAnubis Apr 11 19d ago
L 1-2 vs ESC InfernoAncientNuke Apr 7 23d ago
W 2-1 vs ENCE OverpassMirageAncient Apr 6 24d ago
L 1-2 vs ex-ruby NukeMirageAnubis Apr 5 25d ago
L 0-2 vs RUSTEC NukeOverpass Apr 3 27d ago
W 2-1 vs Qwentry AncientNukeOverpass Apr 1 29d ago
L 1-2 vs Lilmix Dust2MirageInferno Apr 28 2d ago
W 2-1 vs BRUTE Dust2OverpassInferno Apr 27 3d ago
L 0-2 vs Walczaki InfernoNuke Apr 26 4d ago
W 2-1 vs betboom Dust2NukeAnubis Apr 24 6d ago
W 2-1 vs GenOne Dust2OverpassInferno Apr 22 8d ago
W 2-0 vs Bebop NukeDust2 Apr 21 9d ago
L 0-2 vs MOUZ NXT Dust2Mirage Apr 19 11d ago
L 0-2 vs ESC InfernoNuke Apr 16 14d ago
W 2-0 vs acend Dust2Inferno Apr 15 15d ago
W 2-0 vs Leo Dust2Nuke Apr 12 18d ago
W 2-0 vs ASTRAL InfernoNuke Apr 11 19d ago
Player Matchups
STATE
Ratings
Ursa
SL
sL1m3
AWPADR 74.7KAST 71%
1.09 vs 1.18
AL
Alv
AWPADR 79.6KAST 74%
ZA
Zanto
RiflerADR 71.1KAST 72%
1.06 vs 1.14
KA
karnez
EntryADR 80.2KAST 73%
TH
thamlike
EntryADR 71.6KAST 74%
1.04 vs 1.10
4X
4X1s
RiflerADR 78.1KAST 72%
KW
kwezz
RiflerADR 75.6KAST 71%
1.04 vs 0.97
SA
Salazar
RiflerADR 65.6KAST 73%
PA
Patti
RiflerADR 68.2KAST 70%
0.94 vs —
Unpredicted Maps 3 maps
Anubis
STAT 8 – 13 URSA
37%
63%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
STAT
URSA
Opening Kills
STAT
URSA
Clutch Score
STAT
URSA
After First Death
STAT
URSA
T Side
STAT
URSA
Recent on Anubis
STATE
13-8 vs BRUTE Apr 28
14-16 vs ex-ruby Apr 11
10-13 vs ex-ruby Apr 5
7-13 vs BIG Academy Mar 26
8-13 vs Rune Eaters Mar 13
Ursa
13-9 vs betboom Apr 24
9-13 vs big Apr 9
13-2 vs Persona Grata Apr 3
13-11 vs ECSTATIC Apr 2
13-10 vs Leo Mar 25
Mirage
STAT 9 – 13 URSA
38%
62%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
Clutch Score
STAT
URSA
T Side
STAT
URSA
After First Death
STAT
URSA
After First Kill
STAT
URSA
Round Win Rate
STAT
URSA
Recent on Mirage
STATE
16-12 vs Lilmix Apr 27
7-13 vs ex-ruby Apr 11
7-13 vs ENCE Apr 6
4-13 vs ex-ruby Apr 5
13-10 vs Bebop Mar 30
Ursa
10-13 vs Lilmix Apr 28
4-13 vs MOUZ NXT Apr 19
14-16 vs Phantom Apr 10
13-10 vs Persona Grata Apr 3
8-13 vs Just Players Apr 1
Ancient
STAT 13 – 11 URSA
57%
43%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
STAT
URSA
After First Kill
STAT
URSA
Clutch Score
STAT
URSA
Round Win Rate
STAT
URSA
Experience
STAT
URSA
Recent on Ancient
STATE
7-13 vs Lilmix Apr 27
13-7 vs Sashi Academy Apr 26
5-13 vs MASONIC Apr 26
13-6 vs XI Apr 25
10-13 vs ESC Apr 7
Ursa
11-13 vs ASTRAL Mar 17
More from CCT 2026 Europe Series 1 Closed Qualifier 1 match
Bebop over Just Players 68%