Project Leggy
‹ Back
Bo3  ·  PGL Astana 2026 · 2026-05-14
MOUZ ✓
vs
Aurora
91%
9%
Series win probability
MOUZ 2–0 60%
MOUZ 2–1 31%
AURO 2–0 5%
AURO 2–1 4%
Actual result
Dust2 13–11 MOUZ
Nuke 13–8 MOUZ
Model Insights
MOUZ is strongly favored at 91%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a strong mirage (90% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 42% Inferno · Dust2 · Mirage
Scenario 2 37% Inferno · Dust2 · Overpass
Scenario 3 21% Inferno · Dust2 · Nuke
Inferno
MOUZ 13 – 8 AURO
76%
24%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
AURO
After First Kill
MOUZ
AURO
After First Death
MOUZ
AURO
Sniper Score
MOUZ
AURO
Ranking
MOUZ
AURO
Recent on Inferno
MOUZ
13-4 vs 9z May 11
13-7 vs G2 May 10
13-10 vs Legacy Apr 13
8-13 vs 9z Mar 21
3-13 vs The MongolZ Mar 19
Aurora
4-13 vs Natus Vincere Apr 15
13-2 vs Alliance Apr 1
13-3 vs M80 Mar 31
5-13 vs Vitality Mar 28
13-6 vs The MongolZ Mar 27
Dust2
MOUZ 13 – 8 AURO
79%
21%
Win prob OT 8% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
AURO
After First Death
MOUZ
AURO
Ranking
MOUZ
AURO
After First Kill
MOUZ
AURO
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
AURO
Recent on Dust2
MOUZ
13-11 vs Aurora May 12
14-16 vs G2 May 10
5-13 vs Spirit Apr 17
9-13 vs FURIA Apr 15
13-4 vs Aurora Apr 14
Aurora
11-13 vs MOUZ May 12
13-3 vs The Huns May 10
16-14 vs PARIVISION May 10
11-13 vs HEROIC May 9
4-13 vs Natus Vincere Apr 15
Mirage
MOUZ 13 – 5 AURO
90%
10%
Win prob OT 1%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
AURO
After First Kill
MOUZ
AURO
Ranking
MOUZ
AURO
After First Death
MOUZ
AURO
Map ADR
MOUZ
AURO
Recent on Mirage
MOUZ
13-10 vs G2 May 10
4-13 vs Gentle Mates May 9
8-13 vs Spirit Apr 17
5-13 vs FURIA Apr 15
13-8 vs Aurora Apr 14
Aurora
13-10 vs The MongolZ May 13
13-7 vs B8 Apr 15
13-11 vs Natus Vincere Apr 15
8-13 vs MOUZ Apr 14
13-4 vs HOTU Apr 13
Inferno
MOUZ 13 – 8 AURO
76%
24%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
AURO
After First Kill
MOUZ
AURO
After First Death
MOUZ
AURO
Sniper Score
MOUZ
AURO
Ranking
MOUZ
AURO
Recent on Inferno
MOUZ
13-4 vs 9z May 11
13-7 vs G2 May 10
13-10 vs Legacy Apr 13
8-13 vs 9z Mar 21
3-13 vs The MongolZ Mar 19
Aurora
4-13 vs Natus Vincere Apr 15
13-2 vs Alliance Apr 1
13-3 vs M80 Mar 31
5-13 vs Vitality Mar 28
13-6 vs The MongolZ Mar 27
Dust2
MOUZ 13 – 8 AURO
79%
21%
Win prob OT 8% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
AURO
After First Death
MOUZ
AURO
Ranking
MOUZ
AURO
After First Kill
MOUZ
AURO
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
AURO
Recent on Dust2
MOUZ
13-11 vs Aurora May 12
14-16 vs G2 May 10
5-13 vs Spirit Apr 17
9-13 vs FURIA Apr 15
13-4 vs Aurora Apr 14
Aurora
11-13 vs MOUZ May 12
13-3 vs The Huns May 10
16-14 vs PARIVISION May 10
11-13 vs HEROIC May 9
4-13 vs Natus Vincere Apr 15
Overpass
MOUZ 13 – 8 AURO
68%
32%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
AURO
After First Death
MOUZ
AURO
After First Kill
MOUZ
AURO
Ranking
MOUZ
AURO
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
AURO
Recent on Overpass
MOUZ
13-10 vs FUT Mar 13
13-11 vs The MongolZ Mar 8
13-3 vs Astralis Mar 7
16-14 vs FUT Feb 17
13-3 vs PARIVISION Feb 14
Aurora
13-11 vs The MongolZ May 13
13-6 vs B8 Apr 15
11-13 vs Alliance Apr 1
13-7 vs Sashi Mar 31
11-13 vs M80 Mar 31
Inferno
MOUZ 13 – 8 AURO
76%
24%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
AURO
After First Kill
MOUZ
AURO
After First Death
MOUZ
AURO
Sniper Score
MOUZ
AURO
Ranking
MOUZ
AURO
Recent on Inferno
MOUZ
13-4 vs 9z May 11
13-7 vs G2 May 10
13-10 vs Legacy Apr 13
8-13 vs 9z Mar 21
3-13 vs The MongolZ Mar 19
Aurora
4-13 vs Natus Vincere Apr 15
13-2 vs Alliance Apr 1
13-3 vs M80 Mar 31
5-13 vs Vitality Mar 28
13-6 vs The MongolZ Mar 27
Dust2
MOUZ 13 – 8 AURO
79%
21%
Win prob OT 8% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
AURO
After First Death
MOUZ
AURO
Ranking
MOUZ
AURO
After First Kill
MOUZ
AURO
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
AURO
Recent on Dust2
MOUZ
13-11 vs Aurora May 12
14-16 vs G2 May 10
5-13 vs Spirit Apr 17
9-13 vs FURIA Apr 15
13-4 vs Aurora Apr 14
Aurora
11-13 vs MOUZ May 12
13-3 vs The Huns May 10
16-14 vs PARIVISION May 10
11-13 vs HEROIC May 9
4-13 vs Natus Vincere Apr 15
Nuke
MOUZ 13 – 6 AURO
82%
18%
Win prob OT 6% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
AURO
After First Kill
MOUZ
AURO
After First Death
MOUZ
AURO
Ban Rate
MOUZ
AURO
Days With Lineup Opp
MOUZ
AURO
Recent on Nuke
MOUZ
19-15 vs Aurora May 12
10-13 vs 9z May 11
16-12 vs Gentle Mates May 9
9-13 vs 9z Mar 21
11-13 vs The MongolZ Mar 19
Aurora
15-19 vs MOUZ May 12
13-4 vs The Huns May 10
8-13 vs HEROIC May 9
13-10 vs INFINITE Mar 30
5-13 vs Vitality Mar 28
Recent Results last 11 matches
MOUZ
Aurora
W 2-0 vs Aurora Dust2Nuke May 12 15d ago
L 1-2 vs 9z NukeInfernoAncient May 11 16d ago
W 2-1 vs G2 Dust2MirageInferno May 10 17d ago
W 2-1 vs Gentle Mates NukeMirageAncient May 9 18d ago
L 0-2 vs Spirit Dust2Mirage Apr 17 40d ago
L 0-2 vs FURIA MirageDust2 Apr 15 42d ago
W 2-0 vs Aurora Dust2Mirage Apr 14 43d ago
W 2-1 vs Legacy Dust2InfernoMirage Apr 13 44d ago
L 1-2 vs 9z Dust2InfernoNuke Mar 21 67d ago
L 0-2 vs The MongolZ NukeInferno Mar 19 69d ago
L 1-2 vs FUT Dust2OverpassMirage Mar 13 75d ago
W 2-0 vs The MongolZ OverpassMirage May 13 14d ago
L 0-2 vs MOUZ Dust2Nuke May 12 15d ago
W 2-0 vs The Huns NukeDust2 May 10 17d ago
W 2-0 vs PARIVISION AnubisDust2 May 10 17d ago
L 0-2 vs HEROIC NukeDust2 May 9 18d ago
W 2-0 vs B8 MirageOverpass Apr 15 42d ago
L 1-2 vs Natus Vincere InfernoMirageDust2 Apr 15 42d ago
L 0-2 vs MOUZ Dust2Mirage Apr 14 43d ago
W 2-0 vs HOTU MirageDust2 Apr 13 44d ago
L 1-2 vs Alliance InfernoAnubisOverpass Apr 1 56d ago
W 2-0 vs Sashi OverpassDust2 Mar 31 57d ago
Player Matchups
MOUZ
Ratings
Aurora
XE
xelex
RiflerADR 82.0KAST 73%
1.18 vs 1.13
WI
Wicadia
RiflerADR 80.7KAST 72%
XE
xertioN
RiflerADR 82.2KAST 75%
1.13 vs 1.12
XA
XANTARES
EntryADR 81.2KAST 74%
SP
Spinx
EntryADR 75.2KAST 74%
1.10 vs 1.08
WO
woxic
AWPADR 72.0KAST 73%
JL
jL
RiflerADR 73.4KAST 73%
1.06 vs 1.02
SO
soulfly
RiflerADR 69.3KAST 73%
TO
torzsi
AWPADR 65.4KAST 72%
1.01 vs 0.92
MA
MAJ3R
RiflerADR 63.1KAST 70%
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Ancient
MOUZ 13 – 5 AURO
88%
12%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
AURO
After First Kill
MOUZ
AURO
After First Death
MOUZ
AURO
Ban Rate
MOUZ
AURO
Ranking
MOUZ
AURO
Recent on Ancient
MOUZ
9-13 vs 9z May 11
13-5 vs Gentle Mates May 9
13-1 vs The MongolZ Mar 8
14-16 vs Astralis Mar 7
10-13 vs Natus Vincere Feb 20
Aurora
22-25 vs Vitality Feb 3
Nuke
MOUZ 13 – 6 AURO
82%
18%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
AURO
After First Kill
MOUZ
AURO
After First Death
MOUZ
AURO
Ban Rate
MOUZ
AURO
Days With Lineup Opp
MOUZ
AURO
Recent on Nuke
MOUZ
19-15 vs Aurora May 12
10-13 vs 9z May 11
16-12 vs Gentle Mates May 9
9-13 vs 9z Mar 21
11-13 vs The MongolZ Mar 19
Aurora
15-19 vs MOUZ May 12
13-4 vs The Huns May 10
8-13 vs HEROIC May 9
13-10 vs INFINITE Mar 30
5-13 vs Vitality Mar 28
Overpass
MOUZ 13 – 8 AURO
68%
32%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
AURO
After First Death
MOUZ
AURO
After First Kill
MOUZ
AURO
Ranking
MOUZ
AURO
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
AURO
Recent on Overpass
MOUZ
13-10 vs FUT Mar 13
13-11 vs The MongolZ Mar 8
13-3 vs Astralis Mar 7
16-14 vs FUT Feb 17
13-3 vs PARIVISION Feb 14
Aurora
13-11 vs The MongolZ May 13
13-6 vs B8 Apr 15
11-13 vs Alliance Apr 1
13-7 vs Sashi Mar 31
11-13 vs M80 Mar 31
Anubis
MOUZ 13 – 10 AURO
59%
41%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
AURO
Ban Rate
MOUZ
AURO
After First Kill
MOUZ
AURO
After First Death
MOUZ
AURO
Ranking
MOUZ
AURO
Recent on Anubis
MOUZ
no data
Aurora
13-7 vs PARIVISION May 10
9-13 vs Alliance Apr 1
10-13 vs M80 Mar 31
8-13 vs Natus Vincere Mar 23
13-11 vs Natus Vincere Mar 15