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 ·  Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · 2026-05-24
megoshort
vs
ASTRAL
44%
56%
Series win probability
ASTR 2–1 40%
ASTR 2–0 28%
MEGO 2–0 21%
MEGO 2–1 10%
Model Insights
ASTRAL has a moderate edge at 69%, favored on 2 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.05 vs 0.94), a significant ranking advantage (#119 vs #160), a strong dust2 (80% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 43% Mirage · Anubis · Dust2
Scenario 2 34% Mirage · Dust2 · Ancient
Scenario 3 23% Mirage · Dust2 · Inferno
Mirage
MEGO 13 – 11 ASTR
53%
47%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
MEGO
ASTR
Ban Rate
MEGO
ASTR
After First Kill
MEGO
ASTR
After First Death
MEGO
ASTR
Entry Score
MEGO
ASTR
Recent on Mirage
megoshort
3-13 vs fnatic May 22
13-10 vs EAC May 21
6-13 vs AM May 18
9-13 vs CYBERSHOKE May 4
13-11 vs TNC May 3
ASTRAL
5-13 vs Ursa May 22
11-13 vs Project 91 May 20
7-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects May 19
13-4 vs ex-RUBY May 18
8-13 vs CYBERSHOKE May 6
Anubis
MEGO 9 – 13 ASTR
39%
61%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Ranking
MEGO
ASTR
After First Death
MEGO
ASTR
Entry Score
MEGO
ASTR
After First Kill
MEGO
ASTR
Round Swing
MEGO
ASTR
Recent on Anubis
megoshort
13-11 vs TNC May 3
ASTRAL
13-7 vs Project 91 May 20
4-13 vs Passion UA Apr 4
3-13 vs RUSTEC Apr 1
13-8 vs DALUYONG Mar 26
8-13 vs Phantom Mar 24
Dust2
MEGO 5 – 13 ASTR
20%
80%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
Ranking
MEGO
ASTR
After First Kill
MEGO
ASTR
After First Death
MEGO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
MEGO
ASTR
Entry Score
MEGO
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
megoshort
8-13 vs fnatic May 22
13-7 vs AM May 18
7-13 vs CYBERSHOKE May 4
10-13 vs SPARTA Apr 28
ASTRAL
13-9 vs MASONIC May 23
6-13 vs Omega May 23
8-13 vs Eternal Fire May 21
12-16 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects May 19
13-11 vs CYBERSHOKE May 6
Mirage
MEGO 13 – 11 ASTR
53%
47%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
MEGO
ASTR
Ban Rate
MEGO
ASTR
After First Kill
MEGO
ASTR
After First Death
MEGO
ASTR
Entry Score
MEGO
ASTR
Recent on Mirage
megoshort
3-13 vs fnatic May 22
13-10 vs EAC May 21
6-13 vs AM May 18
9-13 vs CYBERSHOKE May 4
13-11 vs TNC May 3
ASTRAL
5-13 vs Ursa May 22
11-13 vs Project 91 May 20
7-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects May 19
13-4 vs ex-RUBY May 18
8-13 vs CYBERSHOKE May 6
Dust2
MEGO 5 – 13 ASTR
20%
80%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
Ranking
MEGO
ASTR
After First Kill
MEGO
ASTR
After First Death
MEGO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
MEGO
ASTR
Entry Score
MEGO
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
megoshort
8-13 vs fnatic May 22
13-7 vs AM May 18
7-13 vs CYBERSHOKE May 4
10-13 vs SPARTA Apr 28
ASTRAL
13-9 vs MASONIC May 23
6-13 vs Omega May 23
8-13 vs Eternal Fire May 21
12-16 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects May 19
13-11 vs CYBERSHOKE May 6
Ancient
MEGO 8 – 13 ASTR
32%
68%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Ranking
MEGO
ASTR
After First Kill
MEGO
ASTR
Entry Score
MEGO
ASTR
After First Death
MEGO
ASTR
Map ADR
MEGO
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
megoshort
16-14 vs EAC May 21
ASTRAL
13-9 vs MASONIC May 23
13-16 vs Omega May 23
13-4 vs Project 91 May 20
13-9 vs ex-RUBY May 18
7-13 vs CYBERSHOKE May 6
Mirage
MEGO 13 – 11 ASTR
53%
47%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
MEGO
ASTR
Ban Rate
MEGO
ASTR
After First Kill
MEGO
ASTR
After First Death
MEGO
ASTR
Entry Score
MEGO
ASTR
Recent on Mirage
megoshort
3-13 vs fnatic May 22
13-10 vs EAC May 21
6-13 vs AM May 18
9-13 vs CYBERSHOKE May 4
13-11 vs TNC May 3
ASTRAL
5-13 vs Ursa May 22
11-13 vs Project 91 May 20
7-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects May 19
13-4 vs ex-RUBY May 18
8-13 vs CYBERSHOKE May 6
Dust2
MEGO 5 – 13 ASTR
20%
80%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
Ranking
MEGO
ASTR
After First Kill
MEGO
ASTR
After First Death
MEGO
ASTR
Map Win Rate
MEGO
ASTR
Entry Score
MEGO
ASTR
Recent on Dust2
megoshort
8-13 vs fnatic May 22
13-7 vs AM May 18
7-13 vs CYBERSHOKE May 4
10-13 vs SPARTA Apr 28
ASTRAL
13-9 vs MASONIC May 23
6-13 vs Omega May 23
8-13 vs Eternal Fire May 21
12-16 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects May 19
13-11 vs CYBERSHOKE May 6
Inferno
MEGO 10 – 13 ASTR
43%
57%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
MEGO
ASTR
After First Kill
MEGO
ASTR
Entry Score
MEGO
ASTR
Ban Rate
MEGO
ASTR
After First Death
MEGO
ASTR
Recent on Inferno
megoshort
no data
ASTRAL
14-16 vs MASONIC May 23
13-11 vs Ursa May 22
13-8 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects May 19
11-13 vs AM May 5
9-13 vs Bebop May 2
Recent Results last 11 matches
megoshort
ASTRAL
L 0-2 vs fnatic MirageDust2 May 22 5d ago
W 2-1 vs EAC MirageOverpassAncient May 21 6d ago
L 1-2 vs AM MirageDust2Overpass May 18 9d ago
L 0-2 vs CYBERSHOKE MirageDust2 May 4 23d ago
W 2-0 vs TNC MirageAnubis May 3 24d ago
L 0-2 vs SPARTA MirageDust2 Apr 28 29d ago
W 2-1 vs MASONIC InfernoDust2Ancient May 23 4d ago
L 0-2 vs Omega Dust2Ancient May 23 4d ago
L 1-2 vs Ursa MirageInfernoNuke May 22 5d ago
L 0-2 vs Eternal Fire NukeDust2 May 21 6d ago
W 2-1 vs Project 91 AncientMirageAnubis May 20 7d ago
L 1-2 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Dust2InfernoMirage May 19 8d ago
W 2-0 vs ex-RUBY AncientMirage May 18 9d ago
L 1-2 vs CYBERSHOKE MirageDust2Ancient May 6 21d ago
L 0-2 vs AM AncientInferno May 5 22d ago
L 0-2 vs Bebop Dust2Inferno May 2 25d ago
L 1-2 vs ex-Zero Tenacity InfernoDust2Nuke May 2 25d ago
Player Matchups
megoshort
Ratings
ASTRAL
B0
b0denmaster
AWPADR 74.5KAST 73%
1.06 vs 1.16
SW
swiz
EntryADR 83.8KAST 72%
MO
mogv
EntryADR 72.0KAST 66%
0.95 vs 1.06
GX
gxx-
AWPADR 75.1KAST 72%
ZE
zen
RiflerADR 67.4KAST 65%
0.92 vs 1.03
RA
RaY5ive
RiflerADR 74.7KAST 71%
TW
Twinkey
RiflerADR 67.6KAST 67%
0.91 vs 1.01
NE
Neqy
RiflerADR 76.7KAST 71%
— vs 0.99
ME
meowpop
RiflerADR 64.9KAST 71%
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Nuke
MEGO 4 – 13 ASTR
12%
88%
Win prob OT 1%
Key factors
Ranking
MEGO
ASTR
Ban Rate
MEGO
ASTR
After First Kill
MEGO
ASTR
Entry Score
MEGO
ASTR
After First Death
MEGO
ASTR
Recent on Nuke
megoshort
no data
ASTRAL
14-16 vs Ursa May 22
14-16 vs Eternal Fire May 21
11-13 vs ex-Zero Tenacity May 2
13-4 vs Clutchain fe Apr 29
6-13 vs Ursa Apr 11
Overpass
MEGO 13 – 5 ASTR
84%
16%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
Ranking
MEGO
ASTR
After First Death
MEGO
ASTR
After First Kill
MEGO
ASTR
Ban Rate
MEGO
ASTR
Side Balance
MEGO
ASTR
Recent on Overpass
megoshort
6-13 vs EAC May 21
9-13 vs AM May 18
ASTRAL
no data
Ancient
MEGO 8 – 13 ASTR
32%
68%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Ranking
MEGO
ASTR
After First Kill
MEGO
ASTR
Entry Score
MEGO
ASTR
After First Death
MEGO
ASTR
Map ADR
MEGO
ASTR
Recent on Ancient
megoshort
16-14 vs EAC May 21
ASTRAL
13-9 vs MASONIC May 23
13-16 vs Omega May 23
13-4 vs Project 91 May 20
13-9 vs ex-RUBY May 18
7-13 vs CYBERSHOKE May 6
Inferno
MEGO 10 – 13 ASTR
43%
57%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
MEGO
ASTR
After First Kill
MEGO
ASTR
Entry Score
MEGO
ASTR
Ban Rate
MEGO
ASTR
After First Death
MEGO
ASTR
Recent on Inferno
megoshort
no data
ASTRAL
14-16 vs MASONIC May 23
13-11 vs Ursa May 22
13-8 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects May 19
11-13 vs AM May 5
9-13 vs Bebop May 2
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