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Bo3  ·  IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · 2026-06-04
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
vs
FlyQuest
44%
56%
Series win probability
FLYQ 2–0 32%
TD 2–1 27%
FLYQ 2–1 24%
TD 2–0 17%
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — FlyQuest is slightly favored at 56% but only leads on 1 of 3 maps. Key factors: stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#73 vs #58), a strong anubis (69% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 42% Nuke · Anubis · Inferno
Scenario 2 40% Nuke · Inferno · Dust2
Scenario 3 19% Nuke · Inferno · Ancient
Nuke
TD 13 – 10 FLYQ
53%
47%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
TD
FLYQ
Ranking
TD
FLYQ
Map Win Rate
TD
FLYQ
Opening Kills
TD
FLYQ
After First Death
TD
FLYQ
Recent on Nuke
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
10-13 vs SemperFi May 27
10-13 vs Lynn Vision May 16
16-13 vs SemperFi May 13
13-6 vs Haunted House May 13
13-7 vs Arcade Mar 16
FlyQuest
13-3 vs JiJieHao May 10
13-4 vs chinggis warriors Apr 4
8-13 vs TYLOO Apr 4
11-13 vs Chinggis Warriors Mar 9
14-16 vs 100 Thieves Feb 28
Anubis
TD 9 – 13 FLYQ
31%
69%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Ranking
TD
FLYQ
Opening Kills
TD
FLYQ
Flash Assists
TD
FLYQ
T Rating
TD
FLYQ
Map ADR
TD
FLYQ
Recent on Anubis
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
13-5 vs Kaleido May 14
13-5 vs Haunted House May 13
13-7 vs Alter Ego May 12
10-13 vs Haunted House May 11
13-5 vs Ground Zero May 3
FlyQuest
13-7 vs NEXVOID May 12
13-8 vs TYLOO Apr 4
13-4 vs SemperFi Apr 1
13-9 vs UR Mar 31
13-2 vs Rare Atom Mar 11
Inferno
TD 16 – 14 FLYQ
53%
47%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
TD
FLYQ
Ranking
TD
FLYQ
CT 4v5
TD
FLYQ
Map Win Rate
TD
FLYQ
After First Death
TD
FLYQ
Recent on Inferno
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
7-13 vs BIG Jun 3
13-6 vs MIBR Jun 2
5-13 vs Lynn Vision May 16
16-12 vs Kaleido May 14
13-4 vs SemperFi May 13
FlyQuest
11-13 vs GamerLegion Jun 2
9-13 vs 5star May 12
13-10 vs chinggis warriors Apr 4
Nuke
TD 13 – 10 FLYQ
53%
47%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
TD
FLYQ
Ranking
TD
FLYQ
Map Win Rate
TD
FLYQ
Opening Kills
TD
FLYQ
After First Death
TD
FLYQ
Recent on Nuke
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
10-13 vs SemperFi May 27
10-13 vs Lynn Vision May 16
16-13 vs SemperFi May 13
13-6 vs Haunted House May 13
13-7 vs Arcade Mar 16
FlyQuest
13-3 vs JiJieHao May 10
13-4 vs chinggis warriors Apr 4
8-13 vs TYLOO Apr 4
11-13 vs Chinggis Warriors Mar 9
14-16 vs 100 Thieves Feb 28
Inferno
TD 16 – 14 FLYQ
53%
47%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
TD
FLYQ
Ranking
TD
FLYQ
CT 4v5
TD
FLYQ
Map Win Rate
TD
FLYQ
After First Death
TD
FLYQ
Recent on Inferno
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
7-13 vs BIG Jun 3
13-6 vs MIBR Jun 2
5-13 vs Lynn Vision May 16
16-12 vs Kaleido May 14
13-4 vs SemperFi May 13
FlyQuest
11-13 vs GamerLegion Jun 2
9-13 vs 5star May 12
13-10 vs chinggis warriors Apr 4
Dust2
TD 16 – 14 FLYQ
50%
50%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
TD
FLYQ
After First Kill
TD
FLYQ
Map ADR
TD
FLYQ
T Rating
TD
FLYQ
Map Player Rating
TD
FLYQ
Recent on Dust2
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
11-13 vs B8 Jun 2
9-13 vs SemperFi May 27
13-9 vs Lynn Vision May 16
17-19 vs Haunted House May 13
13-8 vs Alter Ego May 12
FlyQuest
13-4 vs NEXVOID May 12
13-7 vs 5star May 12
13-6 vs UR Mar 31
16-13 vs Rare Atom Mar 11
13-16 vs Alter Ego Mar 11
Nuke
TD 13 – 10 FLYQ
53%
47%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
TD
FLYQ
Ranking
TD
FLYQ
Map Win Rate
TD
FLYQ
Opening Kills
TD
FLYQ
After First Death
TD
FLYQ
Recent on Nuke
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
10-13 vs SemperFi May 27
10-13 vs Lynn Vision May 16
16-13 vs SemperFi May 13
13-6 vs Haunted House May 13
13-7 vs Arcade Mar 16
FlyQuest
13-3 vs JiJieHao May 10
13-4 vs chinggis warriors Apr 4
8-13 vs TYLOO Apr 4
11-13 vs Chinggis Warriors Mar 9
14-16 vs 100 Thieves Feb 28
Inferno
TD 16 – 14 FLYQ
53%
47%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
TD
FLYQ
Ranking
TD
FLYQ
CT 4v5
TD
FLYQ
Map Win Rate
TD
FLYQ
After First Death
TD
FLYQ
Recent on Inferno
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
7-13 vs BIG Jun 3
13-6 vs MIBR Jun 2
5-13 vs Lynn Vision May 16
16-12 vs Kaleido May 14
13-4 vs SemperFi May 13
FlyQuest
11-13 vs GamerLegion Jun 2
9-13 vs 5star May 12
13-10 vs chinggis warriors Apr 4
Ancient
TD 13 – 8 FLYQ
60%
40%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
After First Kill
TD
FLYQ
Ranking
TD
FLYQ
CT 4v5
TD
FLYQ
T Rating
TD
FLYQ
Ban Rate
TD
FLYQ
Recent on Ancient
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
13-16 vs Kaleido May 14
13-5 vs low cortisol Apr 27
13-6 vs SemperFi Mar 16
13-10 vs SemperFi Mar 16
16-19 vs SemperFi Mar 14
FlyQuest
16-14 vs SINNERS Jun 2
13-16 vs 5star May 12
8-13 vs JiJieHao May 10
16-13 vs SemperFi Apr 1
Recent Results last 11 matches
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
FlyQuest
L 0-1 vs BIG Inferno Jun 3 1d ago
W 1-0 vs MIBR Inferno Jun 2 2d ago
L 0-1 vs B8 Dust2 Jun 2 2d ago
L 0-2 vs SemperFi Dust2Nuke May 27 8d ago
L 1-2 vs Lynn Vision Dust2NukeInferno May 16 19d ago
W 2-1 vs Kaleido AnubisAncientInferno May 14 21d ago
W 2-0 vs SemperFi InfernoNuke May 13 22d ago
W 2-1 vs Haunted House AnubisDust2Nuke May 13 22d ago
W 2-0 vs Alter Ego AnubisDust2 May 12 23d ago
L 0-2 vs Haunted House Dust2Anubis May 11 24d ago
W 2-0 vs Ground Zero Dust2Anubis May 3 32d ago
L 0-1 vs NRG Mirage Jun 3 1d ago
W 1-0 vs SINNERS Ancient Jun 2 2d ago
L 0-1 vs GamerLegion Inferno Jun 2 2d ago
W 2-0 vs NEXVOID AnubisDust2 May 12 23d ago
L 1-2 vs 5star Dust2AncientInferno May 12 23d ago
L 1-2 vs JiJieHao AncientNukeMirage May 10 25d ago
W 2-0 vs chinggis warriors NukeInferno Apr 4 61d ago
L 1-2 vs TYLOO MirageAnubisNuke Apr 4 61d ago
W 2-0 vs SemperFi AncientAnubis Apr 1 64d ago
W 2-0 vs UR Dust2Anubis Mar 31 65d ago
W 2-0 vs Rare Atom Dust2Anubis Mar 11 85d ago
Player Matchups
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
Ratings
FlyQuest
AS
asap
RiflerADR 83.0KAST 76%
1.24 vs 1.18
VE
Vexite
RiflerADR 77.6KAST 75%
AL
aliStair
AWPADR 74.4KAST 74%
1.16 vs 1.14
JK
jks
EntryADR 80.4KAST 75%
LI
Liazz
EntryADR 74.2KAST 75%
1.13 vs 1.11
NE
nettik
RiflerADR 74.3KAST 79%
TJ
TjP
RiflerADR 71.7KAST 72%
1.02 vs 1.11
ST
story
AWPADR 70.5KAST 75%
DE
dexter
RiflerADR 76.1KAST 68%
0.96 vs 1.08
IN
INS
RiflerADR 77.3KAST 73%
Unpredicted Maps 3 maps
Overpass
TD 13 – 7 FLYQ
78%
22%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
After First Kill
TD
FLYQ
Ranking
TD
FLYQ
Ban Rate
TD
FLYQ
Map ADR
TD
FLYQ
Map Win Rate
TD
FLYQ
Recent on Overpass
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
11-13 vs Abyssal Apr 29
13-10 vs Mindfreak Feb 25
13-6 vs Rooster Feb 8
13-3 vs Underground Feb 6
13-7 vs Mindfreak Feb 6
FlyQuest
8-13 vs Alter Ego Mar 11
Ancient
TD 13 – 8 FLYQ
60%
40%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
After First Kill
TD
FLYQ
Ranking
TD
FLYQ
CT 4v5
TD
FLYQ
T Rating
TD
FLYQ
Ban Rate
TD
FLYQ
Recent on Ancient
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
13-16 vs Kaleido May 14
13-5 vs low cortisol Apr 27
13-6 vs SemperFi Mar 16
13-10 vs SemperFi Mar 16
16-19 vs SemperFi Mar 14
FlyQuest
16-14 vs SINNERS Jun 2
13-16 vs 5star May 12
8-13 vs JiJieHao May 10
16-13 vs SemperFi Apr 1
Dust2
TD 16 – 14 FLYQ
50%
50%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
TD
FLYQ
After First Kill
TD
FLYQ
Map ADR
TD
FLYQ
T Rating
TD
FLYQ
Map Player Rating
TD
FLYQ
Recent on Dust2
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
11-13 vs B8 Jun 2
9-13 vs SemperFi May 27
13-9 vs Lynn Vision May 16
17-19 vs Haunted House May 13
13-8 vs Alter Ego May 12
FlyQuest
13-4 vs NEXVOID May 12
13-7 vs 5star May 12
13-6 vs UR Mar 31
16-13 vs Rare Atom Mar 11
13-16 vs Alter Ego Mar 11
More from IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 5 matches
TYLOO over Sharks 67% GamerLegion over BIG 54% Lynn Vision over MIBR 52% Liquid over HEROIC 60% M80 over NRG 77%