Project Leggy
‹ Back
Bo3  ·  IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · 2026-06-08
Astralis
vs
paiN
52%
48%
Series win probability
ASTR 2–1 36%
PAIN 2–0 31%
ASTR 2–0 19%
PAIN 2–1 13%
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — Astralis is slightly favored at 52% but only leads on 1 of 3 maps. Key factors: a strong inferno (73% win probability). paiN's best shot is nuke where they hold a 58% edge.
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 38% Overpass · Nuke · Inferno
Scenario 2 36% Overpass · Nuke · Mirage
Scenario 3 26% Overpass · Nuke · Dust2
Overpass
ASTR 11 – 13 PAIN
46%
54%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
Map Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Multi-Kills
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Overpass
Astralis
8-13 vs GamerLegion May 1
9-13 vs G2 Apr 29
13-10 vs 3DMAX Apr 10
13-5 vs MIBR Apr 4
16-12 vs FUT Mar 15
paiN
9-13 vs BIG Jun 6
13-6 vs TYLOO May 21
7-13 vs MOUZ May 21
13-6 vs GamerLegion May 15
10-13 vs FUT May 12
Nuke
ASTR 9 – 13 PAIN
42%
58%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
5v4 Rounds
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win %
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Nuke
Astralis
6-13 vs TYLOO Jun 7
5-13 vs 9z Jun 6
6-13 vs Legacy May 12
13-10 vs FUT Apr 30
16-14 vs FUT Apr 11
paiN
13-7 vs FlyQuest Jun 7
8-13 vs TYLOO May 21
4-13 vs MOUZ May 21
6-13 vs GamerLegion May 15
13-6 vs BetBoom May 13
Inferno
ASTR 13 – 7 PAIN
73%
27%
Win prob OT 7%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
5v4 Rounds
ASTR
PAIN
Flash Assists
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Inferno
Astralis
13-8 vs SINNERS May 13
14-16 vs GamerLegion May 1
13-2 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
10-13 vs Aurora Mar 14
13-4 vs FURIA Mar 10
paiN
8-13 vs GamerLegion May 15
4-13 vs ShindeN Apr 4
13-6 vs Gaimin Gladiators Mar 30
9-13 vs 9z Mar 29
13-11 vs lp Mar 27
Overpass
ASTR 11 – 13 PAIN
46%
54%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
Map Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Multi-Kills
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Overpass
Astralis
8-13 vs GamerLegion May 1
9-13 vs G2 Apr 29
13-10 vs 3DMAX Apr 10
13-5 vs MIBR Apr 4
16-12 vs FUT Mar 15
paiN
9-13 vs BIG Jun 6
13-6 vs TYLOO May 21
7-13 vs MOUZ May 21
13-6 vs GamerLegion May 15
10-13 vs FUT May 12
Nuke
ASTR 9 – 13 PAIN
42%
58%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
5v4 Rounds
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win %
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Nuke
Astralis
6-13 vs TYLOO Jun 7
5-13 vs 9z Jun 6
6-13 vs Legacy May 12
13-10 vs FUT Apr 30
16-14 vs FUT Apr 11
paiN
13-7 vs FlyQuest Jun 7
8-13 vs TYLOO May 21
4-13 vs MOUZ May 21
6-13 vs GamerLegion May 15
13-6 vs BetBoom May 13
Mirage
ASTR 13 – 11 PAIN
58%
42%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Best Player
ASTR
PAIN
Map Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
5v4 Rounds
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Mirage
Astralis
13-11 vs SINNERS May 13
3-13 vs GamerLegion May 13
13-5 vs FUT Apr 30
5-13 vs FUT Apr 11
8-13 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
paiN
9-13 vs TYLOO Jun 6
13-5 vs TYLOO May 21
8-13 vs M80 May 19
13-8 vs ShindeN Apr 4
13-5 vs Fluxo Apr 4
Overpass
ASTR 11 – 13 PAIN
46%
54%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
Map Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Multi-Kills
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Overpass
Astralis
8-13 vs GamerLegion May 1
9-13 vs G2 Apr 29
13-10 vs 3DMAX Apr 10
13-5 vs MIBR Apr 4
16-12 vs FUT Mar 15
paiN
9-13 vs BIG Jun 6
13-6 vs TYLOO May 21
7-13 vs MOUZ May 21
13-6 vs GamerLegion May 15
10-13 vs FUT May 12
Nuke
ASTR 9 – 13 PAIN
42%
58%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
5v4 Rounds
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win %
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Nuke
Astralis
6-13 vs TYLOO Jun 7
5-13 vs 9z Jun 6
6-13 vs Legacy May 12
13-10 vs FUT Apr 30
16-14 vs FUT Apr 11
paiN
13-7 vs FlyQuest Jun 7
8-13 vs TYLOO May 21
4-13 vs MOUZ May 21
6-13 vs GamerLegion May 15
13-6 vs BetBoom May 13
Dust2
ASTR 9 – 13 PAIN
38%
62%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win %
ASTR
PAIN
Best Player
ASTR
PAIN
5v4 Rounds
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Dust2
Astralis
8-13 vs Legacy May 12
13-4 vs Liquid May 11
5-13 vs G2 Apr 29
3-13 vs FUT Apr 11
13-11 vs 3DMAX Apr 10
paiN
13-8 vs BC.Game May 20
11-13 vs BetBoom May 13
13-11 vs FUT May 12
13-6 vs FaZe May 11
13-7 vs Gaimin Gladiators Apr 5
Recent Results last 11 matches
Astralis
paiN
L 0-1 vs TYLOO Nuke Jun 7 1d ago
W 1-0 vs GamerLegion Ancient Jun 6 2d ago
L 0-1 vs 9z Nuke Jun 6 2d ago
W 2-0 vs SINNERS MirageInferno May 13 26d ago
L 0-2 vs GamerLegion MirageAncient May 13 26d ago
L 0-2 vs Legacy Dust2Nuke May 12 27d ago
W 2-0 vs Liquid Dust2Ancient May 11 28d ago
L 0-2 vs GamerLegion OverpassInferno May 1 38d ago
W 2-0 vs FUT MirageNuke Apr 30 39d ago
L 0-2 vs G2 Dust2Overpass Apr 29 40d ago
L 1-3 vs FUT AncientMirageNukeDust2 Apr 11 58d ago
W 2-0 vs FlyQuest NukeAnubis Jun 7 1d ago
L 0-1 vs TYLOO Mirage Jun 6 2d ago
L 0-1 vs BIG Overpass Jun 6 2d ago
W 2-1 vs TYLOO MirageNukeOverpass May 21 18d ago
L 0-2 vs MOUZ NukeOverpass May 21 18d ago
W 2-0 vs BC.Game Dust2Anubis May 20 19d ago
L 0-1 vs M80 Mirage May 19 20d ago
L 1-2 vs GamerLegion OverpassNukeInferno May 15 24d ago
L 1-2 vs BetBoom Dust2NukeAnubis May 13 26d ago
W 2-1 vs FUT NukeOverpassDust2 May 12 27d ago
W 2-0 vs FaZe Dust2Anubis May 11 28d ago
Player Matchups
Astralis
Ratings
paiN
ST
Staehr
RiflerADR 81.4KAST 72%
1.19 vs 1.09
SN
snow
RiflerADR 75.1KAST 72%
JA
jabbi
EntryADR 75.8KAST 72%
1.13 vs 1.07
PI
piriajr
RiflerADR 76.7KAST 71%
PH
phzy
AWPADR 70.8KAST 72%
1.06 vs 1.02
SA
saffee
AWPADR 68.0KAST 70%
RY
ryu
RiflerADR 71.2KAST 70%
0.98 vs 1.01
BI
biguzera
EntryADR 70.5KAST 73%
HO
HooXi
RiflerADR 62.5KAST 69%
0.88 vs 1.00
VS
vsm
RiflerADR 69.7KAST 70%
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Ancient
ASTR 13 – 5 PAIN
90%
10%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Experience
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Ban Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win %
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Ancient
Astralis
13-4 vs GamerLegion Jun 6
8-13 vs GamerLegion May 13
13-11 vs Liquid May 11
5-13 vs FUT Apr 11
16-14 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
paiN
no data
Anubis
ASTR 7 – 13 PAIN
22%
78%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
Ban Rate
ASTR
PAIN
After First Death
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win %
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Anubis
Astralis
no data
paiN
13-10 vs FlyQuest Jun 7
13-4 vs BC.Game May 20
5-13 vs BetBoom May 13
13-8 vs FaZe May 11
13-4 vs Gaimin Gladiators Apr 5
Dust2
ASTR 9 – 13 PAIN
38%
62%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win %
ASTR
PAIN
Best Player
ASTR
PAIN
5v4 Rounds
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Dust2
Astralis
8-13 vs Legacy May 12
13-4 vs Liquid May 11
5-13 vs G2 Apr 29
3-13 vs FUT Apr 11
13-11 vs 3DMAX Apr 10
paiN
13-8 vs BC.Game May 20
11-13 vs BetBoom May 13
13-11 vs FUT May 12
13-6 vs FaZe May 11
13-7 vs Gaimin Gladiators Apr 5
Mirage
ASTR 13 – 11 PAIN
58%
42%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Best Player
ASTR
PAIN
Map Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
5v4 Rounds
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Mirage
Astralis
13-11 vs SINNERS May 13
3-13 vs GamerLegion May 13
13-5 vs FUT Apr 30
5-13 vs FUT Apr 11
8-13 vs EYEBALLERS Apr 9
paiN
9-13 vs TYLOO Jun 6
13-5 vs TYLOO May 21
8-13 vs M80 May 19
13-8 vs ShindeN Apr 4
13-5 vs Fluxo Apr 4
More from IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 5 matches
MIBR over B8 93% BetBoom over Monte 84% TYLOO over 9z 74% G2 over BIG 75% Legacy over M80 86%