Bo3 · ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Finals
· 2026-05-27
SemperFi
vs
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
✗
34%
66%
Series win probability
TD
2–0
34%
TD
2–1
32%
SEMP
2–1
18%
SEMP
2–0
16%
Actual result
Dust2
13–9
SEMP
Nuke
13–10
SEMP
Model Insights
THUNDER dOWNUNDER has a moderate edge at 66%, favored on 3 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.11 vs 1.05), a significant ranking advantage (#57 vs #93), a strong inferno (68% win probability).
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
42%
Ancient · Inferno · Anubis
Scenario 2
32%
Ancient · Inferno · Dust2
Scenario 3
26%
Ancient · Inferno · Nuke
Ancient
SEMP
14
–
16
TD
50%
50%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Ranking
SEMP
TD
After First Kill
SEMP
TD
Pick Rate
SEMP
TD
Overall Rating
SEMP
TD
T 4v5
SEMP
TD
Recent on Ancient
SemperFi
8-13
vs Change The Game
May 11
11-13
vs Rare Atom
Apr 3
13-16
vs FlyQuest
Apr 1
13-11
vs TYLOO
Mar 31
13-9
vs Just Swing
Mar 28
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
13-16
vs Kaleido
May 14
13-5
vs low cortisol
Apr 27
13-6
vs SemperFi
Mar 16
13-10
vs SemperFi
Mar 16
16-19
vs SemperFi
Mar 14
Inferno
SEMP
7
–
13
TD
32%
68%
Win prob
OT 8%
Key factors
After First Kill
SEMP
TD
Ranking
SEMP
TD
CT 4v5
SEMP
TD
Map Win Rate
SEMP
TD
Map ADR
SEMP
TD
Recent on Inferno
SemperFi
4-13
vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER
May 13
13-5
vs Change The Game
May 11
6-13
vs Kaleido
May 11
13-9
vs TYLOO
Mar 31
13-11
vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER
Mar 16
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
5-13
vs Lynn Vision
May 16
16-12
vs Kaleido
May 14
13-4
vs SemperFi
May 13
13-10
vs Abyssal
Apr 29
11-13
vs SemperFi
Mar 16
Anubis
SEMP
8
–
13
TD
36%
64%
Win prob
OT 8%
Key factors
Ranking
SEMP
TD
CT 4v5
SEMP
TD
Map ADR
SEMP
TD
Map Win Rate
SEMP
TD
Overall Rating
SEMP
TD
Recent on Anubis
SemperFi
4-13
vs FlyQuest
Apr 1
9-13
vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER
Mar 16
13-9
vs Mindfreak
Mar 15
6-13
vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER
Mar 14
13-8
vs Ground Zero
Mar 13
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
13-5
vs Kaleido
May 14
13-5
vs Haunted House
May 13
13-7
vs Alter Ego
May 12
10-13
vs Haunted House
May 11
13-5
vs Ground Zero
May 3
Ancient
SEMP
14
–
16
TD
50%
50%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Ranking
SEMP
TD
After First Kill
SEMP
TD
Pick Rate
SEMP
TD
Overall Rating
SEMP
TD
T 4v5
SEMP
TD
Recent on Ancient
SemperFi
8-13
vs Change The Game
May 11
11-13
vs Rare Atom
Apr 3
13-16
vs FlyQuest
Apr 1
13-11
vs TYLOO
Mar 31
13-9
vs Just Swing
Mar 28
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
13-16
vs Kaleido
May 14
13-5
vs low cortisol
Apr 27
13-6
vs SemperFi
Mar 16
13-10
vs SemperFi
Mar 16
16-19
vs SemperFi
Mar 14
Inferno
SEMP
7
–
13
TD
32%
68%
Win prob
OT 8%
Key factors
After First Kill
SEMP
TD
Ranking
SEMP
TD
CT 4v5
SEMP
TD
Map Win Rate
SEMP
TD
Map ADR
SEMP
TD
Recent on Inferno
SemperFi
4-13
vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER
May 13
13-5
vs Change The Game
May 11
6-13
vs Kaleido
May 11
13-9
vs TYLOO
Mar 31
13-11
vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER
Mar 16
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
5-13
vs Lynn Vision
May 16
16-12
vs Kaleido
May 14
13-4
vs SemperFi
May 13
13-10
vs Abyssal
Apr 29
11-13
vs SemperFi
Mar 16
Dust2
SEMP
9
–
13
TD
32%
68%
Win prob
OT 9%
✗
Key factors
Ranking
SEMP
TD
After First Kill
SEMP
TD
After First Death
SEMP
TD
Overall Rating
SEMP
TD
Map Win Rate
SEMP
TD
Recent on Dust2
SemperFi
13-10
vs Ground Zero
Mar 25
13-5
vs Rooster
Mar 23
11-13
vs Muttley Crew
Mar 21
13-8
vs Arcade
Mar 16
13-4
vs Mindfreak
Mar 15
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
13-9
vs Lynn Vision
May 16
17-19
vs Haunted House
May 13
13-8
vs Alter Ego
May 12
10-13
vs Haunted House
May 11
13-7
vs Ground Zero
May 3
Ancient
SEMP
14
–
16
TD
50%
50%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Ranking
SEMP
TD
After First Kill
SEMP
TD
Pick Rate
SEMP
TD
Overall Rating
SEMP
TD
T 4v5
SEMP
TD
Recent on Ancient
SemperFi
8-13
vs Change The Game
May 11
11-13
vs Rare Atom
Apr 3
13-16
vs FlyQuest
Apr 1
13-11
vs TYLOO
Mar 31
13-9
vs Just Swing
Mar 28
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
13-16
vs Kaleido
May 14
13-5
vs low cortisol
Apr 27
13-6
vs SemperFi
Mar 16
13-10
vs SemperFi
Mar 16
16-19
vs SemperFi
Mar 14
Inferno
SEMP
7
–
13
TD
32%
68%
Win prob
OT 8%
Key factors
After First Kill
SEMP
TD
Ranking
SEMP
TD
CT 4v5
SEMP
TD
Map Win Rate
SEMP
TD
Map ADR
SEMP
TD
Recent on Inferno
SemperFi
4-13
vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER
May 13
13-5
vs Change The Game
May 11
6-13
vs Kaleido
May 11
13-9
vs TYLOO
Mar 31
13-11
vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER
Mar 16
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
5-13
vs Lynn Vision
May 16
16-12
vs Kaleido
May 14
13-4
vs SemperFi
May 13
13-10
vs Abyssal
Apr 29
11-13
vs SemperFi
Mar 16
Nuke
SEMP
8
–
13
TD
36%
64%
Win prob
OT 10%
✗
Key factors
Ranking
SEMP
TD
Ban Rate
SEMP
TD
Pick Rate
SEMP
TD
After First Death
SEMP
TD
Map ADR
SEMP
TD
Recent on Nuke
SemperFi
13-16
vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER
May 13
13-6
vs Rooster
Mar 27
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
10-13
vs Lynn Vision
May 16
16-13
vs SemperFi
May 13
13-6
vs Haunted House
May 13
13-7
vs Arcade
Mar 16
13-11
vs Ground Zero
Mar 15
Recent Results
last 11 matches
SemperFi
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
L
0-2
vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER
InfernoNuke
May 13
14d ago
W
2-1
vs Change The Game
InfernoAncientMirage
May 11
16d ago
L
0-2
vs Kaleido
InfernoMirage
May 11
16d ago
L
0-2
vs Rare Atom
AncientMirage
Apr 3
54d ago
L
0-2
vs FlyQuest
AncientAnubis
Apr 1
56d ago
W
2-0
vs TYLOO
AncientInferno
Mar 31
57d ago
W
1-0
vs Just Swing
Ancient
Mar 28
60d ago
W
2-0
vs Rooster
NukeMirage
Mar 27
61d ago
W
1-0
vs XDM
Mirage
Mar 27
61d ago
W
2-0
vs Ground Zero
Dust2Mirage
Mar 25
63d ago
W
2-0
vs Rooster
Dust2Mirage
Mar 23
65d ago
L
1-2
vs Lynn Vision
Dust2NukeInferno
May 16
11d ago
W
2-1
vs Kaleido
AnubisAncientInferno
May 14
13d ago
W
2-0
vs SemperFi
InfernoNuke
May 13
14d ago
W
2-1
vs Haunted House
AnubisDust2Nuke
May 13
14d ago
W
2-0
vs Alter Ego
AnubisDust2
May 12
15d ago
L
0-2
vs Haunted House
Dust2Anubis
May 11
16d ago
W
2-0
vs Ground Zero
Dust2Anubis
May 3
24d ago
W
2-1
vs Abyssal
OverpassAnubisInferno
Apr 29
28d ago
W
2-0
vs low cortisol
AnubisAncient
Apr 27
30d ago
W
1-0
vs Arcade
Nuke
Mar 16
72d ago
W
2-1
vs SemperFi
AncientInfernoAnubis
Mar 16
72d ago
Player Matchups
SemperFi
Ratings
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
SL
sliimey
EntryADR 83.7KAST 76%
AS
asap
RiflerADR 81.5KAST 75%
KE
keen
AWPADR 78.6KAST 72%
AL
aliStair
AWPADR 73.9KAST 74%
SH
shadiy
RiflerADR 76.7KAST 74%
LI
Liazz
EntryADR 75.6KAST 76%
SA
SaVage
RiflerADR 67.4KAST 71%
TJ
TjP
RiflerADR 72.2KAST 71%
HA
hazr
RiflerADR 66.7KAST 71%
DE
dexter
RiflerADR 76.7KAST 68%
Unpredicted Maps
3 maps
Dust2
SEMP
9
–
13
TD
32%
68%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
Ranking
SEMP
TD
After First Kill
SEMP
TD
After First Death
SEMP
TD
Overall Rating
SEMP
TD
Map Win Rate
SEMP
TD
Recent on Dust2
SemperFi
13-10
vs Ground Zero
Mar 25
13-5
vs Rooster
Mar 23
11-13
vs Muttley Crew
Mar 21
13-8
vs Arcade
Mar 16
13-4
vs Mindfreak
Mar 15
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
13-9
vs Lynn Vision
May 16
17-19
vs Haunted House
May 13
13-8
vs Alter Ego
May 12
10-13
vs Haunted House
May 11
13-7
vs Ground Zero
May 3
Nuke
SEMP
8
–
13
TD
36%
64%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
Ranking
SEMP
TD
Ban Rate
SEMP
TD
Pick Rate
SEMP
TD
After First Death
SEMP
TD
Map ADR
SEMP
TD
Recent on Nuke
SemperFi
13-16
vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER
May 13
13-6
vs Rooster
Mar 27
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
10-13
vs Lynn Vision
May 16
16-13
vs SemperFi
May 13
13-6
vs Haunted House
May 13
13-7
vs Arcade
Mar 16
13-11
vs Ground Zero
Mar 15
Overpass
SEMP
13
–
11
TD
61%
39%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
SEMP
TD
Opening Kills
SEMP
TD
After First Kill
SEMP
TD
Map ADR
SEMP
TD
Flash Assists
SEMP
TD
Recent on Overpass
SemperFi
13-5
vs Mindfreak
Mar 12
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
11-13
vs Abyssal
Apr 29
13-10
vs Mindfreak
Feb 25
13-6
vs Rooster
Feb 8
13-3
vs Underground
Feb 6
13-7
vs Mindfreak
Feb 6