Bo3 · IEM Rio 2026
falcons
✓
vs
furia
80%
20%
Series win probability
FALC
2–0
55%
FALC
2–1
25%
FURI
2–1
14%
FURI
2–0
6%
Actual result
Dust2
13–11
FALC
Mirage
13–11
FALC
Model Insights
falcons is strongly favored at 80%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.15 vs 1.05), a strong mirage (89% win probability).
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
Mirage · Dust2 · Inferno
Mirage
FALC
13
–
7
FURI
83%
17%
Win prob
OT 6%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
FALC
FURI
After First Death
FALC
FURI
Ranking
FALC
FURI
Head-to-Head
FALC
FURI
After First Kill
FALC
FURI
Recent on Mirage
falcons
4-13
vs Spirit
Apr 18
13-10
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-5
vs Spirit
Apr 14
11-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 27
13-11
vs FURIA
Mar 23
furia
13-5
vs MOUZ
Apr 15
3-13
vs Natus Vincere
Apr 14
13-7
vs Passion UA
Apr 13
11-13
vs Falcons
Mar 23
10-13
vs NRG
Mar 22
Dust2
FALC
13
–
10
FURI
66%
34%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
FALC
FURI
Map Player Rating
FALC
FURI
After First Death
FALC
FURI
Ranking
FALC
FURI
Head-to-Head
FALC
FURI
Recent on Dust2
falcons
7-13
vs Spirit
Apr 18
6-13
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-16
vs FURIA
Mar 23
9-13
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 20
13-8
vs NRG
Mar 18
furia
13-9
vs MOUZ
Apr 15
13-4
vs Natus Vincere
Apr 14
16-13
vs Falcons
Mar 23
13-7
vs NRG
Mar 22
14-16
vs Aurora
Mar 20
Inferno
FALC
13
–
9
FURI
64%
36%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
Ranking
FALC
FURI
Head-to-Head
FALC
FURI
Round Win Rate
FALC
FURI
Opening Kills
FALC
FURI
Map Player Rating
FALC
FURI
Recent on Inferno
falcons
13-10
vs 3DMAX
Apr 13
14-16
vs TYLOO
Mar 22
9-13
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 20
13-4
vs FURIA
Feb 16
14-16
vs MOUZ
Feb 3
furia
13-3
vs Passion UA
Apr 13
6-13
vs Aurora
Mar 20
4-13
vs Astralis
Mar 10
13-6
vs paiN
Mar 9
13-9
vs HEROIC
Mar 8
Player Matchups
Player data not available for this match
Unpredicted Maps
6 maps
Ancient
FALC
13
–
5
FURI
91%
9%
Win prob
OT 3%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
FALC
FURI
After First Kill
FALC
FURI
Round Win Rate
FALC
FURI
Ranking
FALC
FURI
Head-to-Head
FALC
FURI
Recent on Ancient
falcons
13-1
vs 3DMAX
Apr 13
10-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 27
13-1
vs TYLOO
Mar 22
13-6
vs NRG
Mar 18
8-13
vs PARIVISION
Feb 20
furia
10-13
vs Vitality
Apr 18
Anubis
FALC
13
–
8
FURI
72%
28%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
After First Death
FALC
FURI
Map Player Rating
FALC
FURI
Head-to-Head
FALC
FURI
Ranking
FALC
FURI
Opening Kills
FALC
FURI
Recent on Anubis
falcons
13-4
vs Spirit
Apr 14
13-11
vs FURIA
Feb 16
13-9
vs FaZe
Feb 15
13-5
vs 3DMAX
Feb 3
7-13
vs Aurora
Feb 1
furia
11-13
vs Falcons
Feb 16
13-9
vs FUT
Feb 15
Nuke
FALC
13
–
9
FURI
68%
32%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
FALC
FURI
After First Death
FALC
FURI
After First Kill
FALC
FURI
Ranking
FALC
FURI
Map Win Rate
FALC
FURI
Recent on Nuke
falcons
16-14
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-10
vs FURIA
Mar 23
13-7
vs 3DMAX
Feb 14
furia
16-13
vs Natus Vincere
Apr 14
10-13
vs Falcons
Mar 23
13-2
vs NRG
Mar 22
4-13
vs Astralis
Mar 10
10-13
vs The MongolZ
Feb 20
Mirage
FALC
13
–
7
FURI
83%
17%
Win prob
OT 6%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
FALC
FURI
After First Death
FALC
FURI
Ranking
FALC
FURI
Head-to-Head
FALC
FURI
After First Kill
FALC
FURI
Recent on Mirage
falcons
4-13
vs Spirit
Apr 18
13-10
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-5
vs Spirit
Apr 14
11-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 27
13-11
vs FURIA
Mar 23
furia
13-5
vs MOUZ
Apr 15
3-13
vs Natus Vincere
Apr 14
13-7
vs Passion UA
Apr 13
11-13
vs Falcons
Mar 23
10-13
vs NRG
Mar 22
Dust2
FALC
13
–
10
FURI
66%
34%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
FALC
FURI
Map Player Rating
FALC
FURI
After First Death
FALC
FURI
Ranking
FALC
FURI
Head-to-Head
FALC
FURI
Recent on Dust2
falcons
7-13
vs Spirit
Apr 18
6-13
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-16
vs FURIA
Mar 23
9-13
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 20
13-8
vs NRG
Mar 18
furia
13-9
vs MOUZ
Apr 15
13-4
vs Natus Vincere
Apr 14
16-13
vs Falcons
Mar 23
13-7
vs NRG
Mar 22
14-16
vs Aurora
Mar 20
Inferno
FALC
13
–
9
FURI
64%
36%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
Ranking
FALC
FURI
Head-to-Head
FALC
FURI
Round Win Rate
FALC
FURI
Opening Kills
FALC
FURI
Map Player Rating
FALC
FURI
Recent on Inferno
falcons
13-10
vs 3DMAX
Apr 13
14-16
vs TYLOO
Mar 22
9-13
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 20
13-4
vs FURIA
Feb 16
14-16
vs MOUZ
Feb 3
furia
13-3
vs Passion UA
Apr 13
6-13
vs Aurora
Mar 20
4-13
vs Astralis
Mar 10
13-6
vs paiN
Mar 9
13-9
vs HEROIC
Mar 8
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