Bo5 · IEM Rio 2026
vitality
✓
vs
spirit
96%
4%
Series win probability
VIT
3–0
65%
VIT
3–1
19%
VIT
3–2
11%
SPIR
3–2
3%
SPIR
3–1
1%
Actual result
Mirage
16–13
VIT
Nuke
13–10
VIT
Dust2
13–5
VIT
Model Insights
vitality is strongly favored at 95%, holding a map advantage on 5 of 5 predicted maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.18 vs 1.09), a strong nuke (99% win probability).
Predicted Maps
5 maps
Scenario 1
Dust2 · Nuke · Overpass · Anubis · Mirage
Dust2
VIT
13
–
5
SPIR
94%
6%
Win prob
OT 2%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
VIT
SPIR
After First Death
VIT
SPIR
Round Win Rate
VIT
SPIR
Ranking
VIT
SPIR
After First Kill
VIT
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
vitality
13-6
vs Natus Vincere
Apr 17
13-6
vs Falcons
Apr 15
13-11
vs G2
Apr 14
13-10
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 29
13-4
vs PARIVISION
Feb 22
spirit
13-7
vs Falcons
Apr 18
13-5
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
13-11
vs G2
Apr 15
13-11
vs Liquid
Apr 13
13-6
vs 9z
Mar 22
Nuke
VIT
13
–
5
SPIR
93%
7%
Win prob
OT 1%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
VIT
SPIR
After First Death
VIT
SPIR
Round Win Rate
VIT
SPIR
After First Kill
VIT
SPIR
Ranking
VIT
SPIR
Recent on Nuke
vitality
14-16
vs Falcons
Apr 15
13-4
vs RED Canids
Apr 13
13-5
vs Aurora
Mar 28
13-5
vs 9z
Mar 19
13-4
vs The MongolZ
Feb 15
spirit
11-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-9
vs B8
Mar 7
13-10
vs 3DMAX
Mar 6
7-13
vs FURIA
Feb 7
Overpass
VIT
13
–
7
SPIR
74%
26%
Win prob
OT 8%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
VIT
SPIR
After First Death
VIT
SPIR
Ranking
VIT
SPIR
Opening Kills
VIT
SPIR
Head-to-Head
VIT
SPIR
Recent on Overpass
vitality
13-10
vs FURIA
Apr 18
13-6
vs RED Canids
Apr 13
16-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 21
13-3
vs 9z
Mar 19
13-10
vs PARIVISION
Feb 22
spirit
13-2
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
9-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-6
vs 9z
Mar 22
13-7
vs 3DMAX
Mar 6
8-13
vs G2
Feb 3
Anubis
VIT
13
–
9
SPIR
61%
39%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
VIT
SPIR
After First Death
VIT
SPIR
Map Player Rating
VIT
SPIR
Ranking
VIT
SPIR
Opening Kills
VIT
SPIR
Recent on Anubis
vitality
13-10
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 29
13-8
vs G2
Feb 14
spirit
4-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
3-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
13-10
vs G2
Mar 8
13-7
vs B8
Mar 7
13-8
vs G2
Feb 3
Mirage
VIT
13
–
8
SPIR
78%
22%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
Head-to-Head
VIT
SPIR
Ranking
VIT
SPIR
After First Kill
VIT
SPIR
Opening Kills
VIT
SPIR
After First Death
VIT
SPIR
Recent on Mirage
vitality
13-4
vs Natus Vincere
Apr 17
10-13
vs Falcons
Apr 15
5-13
vs G2
Apr 14
13-9
vs PARIVISION
Mar 23
13-4
vs The MongolZ
Mar 21
spirit
13-4
vs Falcons
Apr 18
13-8
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
13-7
vs G2
Apr 15
8-13
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
5-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
Player Matchups
Player data not available for this match
Unpredicted Maps
6 maps
Ancient
VIT
13
–
8
SPIR
78%
22%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
After First Death
VIT
SPIR
Ranking
VIT
SPIR
Map Player Rating
VIT
SPIR
Head-to-Head
VIT
SPIR
After First Kill
VIT
SPIR
Recent on Ancient
vitality
13-10
vs FURIA
Apr 18
25-22
vs Aurora
Feb 3
spirit
13-8
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
13-2
vs Liquid
Apr 13
8-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
13-11
vs Liquid
Mar 19
7-13
vs Astralis
Mar 13
Dust2
VIT
13
–
5
SPIR
94%
6%
Win prob
OT 2%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
VIT
SPIR
After First Death
VIT
SPIR
Round Win Rate
VIT
SPIR
Ranking
VIT
SPIR
After First Kill
VIT
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
vitality
13-6
vs Natus Vincere
Apr 17
13-6
vs Falcons
Apr 15
13-11
vs G2
Apr 14
13-10
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 29
13-4
vs PARIVISION
Feb 22
spirit
13-7
vs Falcons
Apr 18
13-5
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
13-11
vs G2
Apr 15
13-11
vs Liquid
Apr 13
13-6
vs 9z
Mar 22
Nuke
VIT
13
–
5
SPIR
93%
7%
Win prob
OT 1%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
VIT
SPIR
After First Death
VIT
SPIR
Round Win Rate
VIT
SPIR
After First Kill
VIT
SPIR
Ranking
VIT
SPIR
Recent on Nuke
vitality
14-16
vs Falcons
Apr 15
13-4
vs RED Canids
Apr 13
13-5
vs Aurora
Mar 28
13-5
vs 9z
Mar 19
13-4
vs The MongolZ
Feb 15
spirit
11-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-9
vs B8
Mar 7
13-10
vs 3DMAX
Mar 6
7-13
vs FURIA
Feb 7
Overpass
VIT
13
–
7
SPIR
74%
26%
Win prob
OT 8%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
VIT
SPIR
After First Death
VIT
SPIR
Ranking
VIT
SPIR
Opening Kills
VIT
SPIR
Head-to-Head
VIT
SPIR
Recent on Overpass
vitality
13-10
vs FURIA
Apr 18
13-6
vs RED Canids
Apr 13
16-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 21
13-3
vs 9z
Mar 19
13-10
vs PARIVISION
Feb 22
spirit
13-2
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
9-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-6
vs 9z
Mar 22
13-7
vs 3DMAX
Mar 6
8-13
vs G2
Feb 3
Anubis
VIT
13
–
9
SPIR
61%
39%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
VIT
SPIR
After First Death
VIT
SPIR
Map Player Rating
VIT
SPIR
Ranking
VIT
SPIR
Opening Kills
VIT
SPIR
Recent on Anubis
vitality
13-10
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 29
13-8
vs G2
Feb 14
spirit
4-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
3-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
13-10
vs G2
Mar 8
13-7
vs B8
Mar 7
13-8
vs G2
Feb 3
Mirage
VIT
13
–
8
SPIR
78%
22%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
Head-to-Head
VIT
SPIR
Ranking
VIT
SPIR
After First Kill
VIT
SPIR
Opening Kills
VIT
SPIR
After First Death
VIT
SPIR
Recent on Mirage
vitality
13-4
vs Natus Vincere
Apr 17
10-13
vs Falcons
Apr 15
5-13
vs G2
Apr 14
13-9
vs PARIVISION
Mar 23
13-4
vs The MongolZ
Mar 21
spirit
13-4
vs Falcons
Apr 18
13-8
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
13-7
vs G2
Apr 15
8-13
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
5-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
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