Bo3 · ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 Playoffs
· 2026-04-29
Nemesis
vs
fnatic
84%
16%
Series win probability
NEME
2–0
54%
NEME
2–1
30%
FNAT
2–1
9%
FNAT
2–0
7%
Model Insights
Nemesis is strongly favored at 84%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.07 vs 1.04), a significant ranking advantage (#32 vs #85), a strong mirage (76% win probability).
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
38%
Ancient · Overpass · Mirage
Scenario 2
32%
Ancient · Overpass · Inferno
Scenario 3
30%
Ancient · Overpass · Dust2
Ancient
NEME
13
–
7
FNAT
72%
28%
Win prob
OT 7%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
NEME
FNAT
Ranking
NEME
FNAT
Round Win Rate
NEME
FNAT
After First Death
NEME
FNAT
After First Kill
NEME
FNAT
Recent on Ancient
Nemesis
13-9
vs The Last Resort
Apr 25
13-5
vs big
Apr 10
13-11
vs RUSTEC
Apr 8
16-14
vs ECSTATIC
Apr 3
13-6
vs ESC
Apr 3
fnatic
13-4
vs Leo
Apr 27
13-9
vs Rune Eaters
Apr 25
13-10
vs Project 91
Apr 23
5-13
vs sashi
Apr 12
16-14
vs sashi
Mar 30
Overpass
NEME
13
–
7
FNAT
76%
24%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
After First Kill
NEME
FNAT
Opponent-Rating Diff
NEME
FNAT
Ranking
NEME
FNAT
Round Win Rate
NEME
FNAT
Overall Rating
NEME
FNAT
Recent on Overpass
Nemesis
13-10
vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects
Apr 23
13-8
vs Rebels
Apr 2
4-13
vs Nemiga
Apr 1
13-10
vs Nemiga
Mar 24
13-3
vs TDK
Mar 21
fnatic
11-13
vs tricked
Apr 23
13-5
vs FaZe
Mar 31
16-14
vs ENCE
Mar 5
5-13
vs betboom
Feb 27
8-13
vs inner circle
Feb 26
Mirage
NEME
13
–
7
FNAT
76%
24%
Win prob
OT 5%
Key factors
After First Kill
NEME
FNAT
Ranking
NEME
FNAT
Opponent-Rating Diff
NEME
FNAT
Round Win Rate
NEME
FNAT
After First Death
NEME
FNAT
Recent on Mirage
Nemesis
13-8
vs The Last Resort
Apr 25
13-4
vs eyeballers
Apr 9
13-8
vs RUSTEC
Apr 8
13-9
vs ECSTATIC
Apr 3
7-13
vs heroic
Apr 2
fnatic
10-13
vs Leo
Apr 27
10-13
vs tricked
Apr 23
8-13
vs eyeballers
Apr 14
13-10
vs INFINITE
Mar 30
13-11
vs aimclub
Mar 24
Ancient
NEME
13
–
7
FNAT
72%
28%
Win prob
OT 7%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
NEME
FNAT
Ranking
NEME
FNAT
Round Win Rate
NEME
FNAT
After First Death
NEME
FNAT
After First Kill
NEME
FNAT
Recent on Ancient
Nemesis
13-9
vs The Last Resort
Apr 25
13-5
vs big
Apr 10
13-11
vs RUSTEC
Apr 8
16-14
vs ECSTATIC
Apr 3
13-6
vs ESC
Apr 3
fnatic
13-4
vs Leo
Apr 27
13-9
vs Rune Eaters
Apr 25
13-10
vs Project 91
Apr 23
5-13
vs sashi
Apr 12
16-14
vs sashi
Mar 30
Overpass
NEME
13
–
7
FNAT
76%
24%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
After First Kill
NEME
FNAT
Opponent-Rating Diff
NEME
FNAT
Ranking
NEME
FNAT
Round Win Rate
NEME
FNAT
Overall Rating
NEME
FNAT
Recent on Overpass
Nemesis
13-10
vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects
Apr 23
13-8
vs Rebels
Apr 2
4-13
vs Nemiga
Apr 1
13-10
vs Nemiga
Mar 24
13-3
vs TDK
Mar 21
fnatic
11-13
vs tricked
Apr 23
13-5
vs FaZe
Mar 31
16-14
vs ENCE
Mar 5
5-13
vs betboom
Feb 27
8-13
vs inner circle
Feb 26
Inferno
NEME
13
–
10
FNAT
58%
42%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
NEME
FNAT
Ranking
NEME
FNAT
Opponent-Rating Diff
NEME
FNAT
After First Kill
NEME
FNAT
Opening Score
NEME
FNAT
Recent on Inferno
Nemesis
13-11
vs Hashiras
Apr 27
13-8
vs big
Apr 10
13-8
vs STATE
Mar 31
13-11
vs rottweilers
Mar 19
9-13
vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Mar 17
fnatic
13-8
vs Project 91
Apr 23
13-4
vs Qual4
Apr 21
13-16
vs alliance
Mar 31
7-13
vs sashi
Mar 30
13-10
vs SAW
Feb 20
Ancient
NEME
13
–
7
FNAT
72%
28%
Win prob
OT 7%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
NEME
FNAT
Ranking
NEME
FNAT
Round Win Rate
NEME
FNAT
After First Death
NEME
FNAT
After First Kill
NEME
FNAT
Recent on Ancient
Nemesis
13-9
vs The Last Resort
Apr 25
13-5
vs big
Apr 10
13-11
vs RUSTEC
Apr 8
16-14
vs ECSTATIC
Apr 3
13-6
vs ESC
Apr 3
fnatic
13-4
vs Leo
Apr 27
13-9
vs Rune Eaters
Apr 25
13-10
vs Project 91
Apr 23
5-13
vs sashi
Apr 12
16-14
vs sashi
Mar 30
Overpass
NEME
13
–
7
FNAT
76%
24%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
After First Kill
NEME
FNAT
Opponent-Rating Diff
NEME
FNAT
Ranking
NEME
FNAT
Round Win Rate
NEME
FNAT
Overall Rating
NEME
FNAT
Recent on Overpass
Nemesis
13-10
vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects
Apr 23
13-8
vs Rebels
Apr 2
4-13
vs Nemiga
Apr 1
13-10
vs Nemiga
Mar 24
13-3
vs TDK
Mar 21
fnatic
11-13
vs tricked
Apr 23
13-5
vs FaZe
Mar 31
16-14
vs ENCE
Mar 5
5-13
vs betboom
Feb 27
8-13
vs inner circle
Feb 26
Dust2
NEME
13
–
7
FNAT
73%
27%
Win prob
OT 7%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
NEME
FNAT
After First Death
NEME
FNAT
Ranking
NEME
FNAT
Opening Score
NEME
FNAT
4v5 Rounds
NEME
FNAT
Recent on Dust2
Nemesis
13-7
vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects
Apr 23
13-6
vs ESC
Apr 10
9-13
vs RUSTEC
Apr 8
13-10
vs ESC
Apr 3
12-16
vs Rebels
Apr 2
fnatic
13-5
vs Qual4
Apr 21
5-13
vs sashi
Mar 30
13-11
vs aimclub
Mar 24
10-13
vs inner circle
Feb 26
1-13
vs hotu
Feb 22
Recent Results
last 11 matches
Nemesis
fnatic
W
2-0
vs Hashiras
InfernoNuke
Apr 27
2d ago
W
2-0
vs The Last Resort
AncientMirage
Apr 25
4d ago
W
2-0
vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects
Dust2Overpass
Apr 23
6d ago
W
2-0
vs ESC
NukeDust2
Apr 10
19d ago
W
2-0
vs big
InfernoAncient
Apr 10
19d ago
W
2-0
vs eyeballers
NukeMirage
Apr 9
20d ago
W
2-1
vs RUSTEC
Dust2AncientMirage
Apr 8
21d ago
W
2-0
vs ECSTATIC
MirageAncient
Apr 3
26d ago
W
2-0
vs ESC
Dust2Ancient
Apr 3
26d ago
W
2-1
vs Rebels
OverpassDust2Ancient
Apr 2
27d ago
L
0-2
vs heroic
NukeMirage
Apr 2
27d ago
W
2-1
vs Leo
AncientMirageAnubis
Apr 27
2d ago
W
2-0
vs Rune Eaters
AncientAnubis
Apr 25
4d ago
L
0-2
vs tricked
OverpassMirage
Apr 23
6d ago
W
2-0
vs Project 91
AncientInferno
Apr 23
6d ago
W
2-0
vs Qual4
Dust2Inferno
Apr 21
8d ago
L
0-1
vs eyeballers
Mirage
Apr 14
15d ago
L
0-1
vs sashi
Ancient
Apr 12
17d ago
W
2-0
vs FaZe
AnubisOverpass
Mar 31
29d ago
L
0-2
vs alliance
AnubisInferno
Mar 31
29d ago
L
1-2
vs sashi
AncientDust2Inferno
Mar 30
30d ago
W
2-0
vs INFINITE
AncientMirage
Mar 30
30d ago
Player Matchups
Nemesis
Rating 3.0
fnatic
R3
r3salt
EntryADR 80.7KAST 7450%
JA
jackasmo
EntryADR 86.5KAST 7460%
TE
tex1y
RiflerADR 74.6KAST 7420%
JA
jambo
AWPADR 72.2KAST 7240%
SD
Sdaim
RiflerADR 75.5KAST 7250%
KR
KRIMZ
RiflerADR 70.7KAST 7300%
MA
mag1k3Y
AWPADR 68.8KAST 7410%
BR
Br4tkO
RiflerADR 72.9KAST 7260%
SE
SELLTER
RiflerADR 70.8KAST 7110%
FE
fEAR
RiflerADR 68.2KAST 7250%
Unpredicted Maps
3 maps
Dust2
NEME
13
–
7
FNAT
73%
27%
Win prob
OT 7%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
NEME
FNAT
After First Death
NEME
FNAT
Ranking
NEME
FNAT
Opening Score
NEME
FNAT
4v5 Rounds
NEME
FNAT
Recent on Dust2
Nemesis
13-7
vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects
Apr 23
13-6
vs ESC
Apr 10
9-13
vs RUSTEC
Apr 8
13-10
vs ESC
Apr 3
12-16
vs Rebels
Apr 2
fnatic
13-5
vs Qual4
Apr 21
5-13
vs sashi
Mar 30
13-11
vs aimclub
Mar 24
10-13
vs inner circle
Feb 26
1-13
vs hotu
Feb 22
Anubis
NEME
8
–
13
FNAT
35%
65%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
NEME
FNAT
After First Death
NEME
FNAT
Ranking
NEME
FNAT
Opponent-Rating Diff
NEME
FNAT
Opening Kills
NEME
FNAT
Recent on Anubis
Nemesis
no data
fnatic
13-10
vs Leo
Apr 27
13-4
vs Rune Eaters
Apr 25
13-6
vs FaZe
Mar 31
9-13
vs alliance
Mar 31
10-13
vs MOUZ NXT
Mar 24
Inferno
NEME
13
–
10
FNAT
58%
42%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
NEME
FNAT
Ranking
NEME
FNAT
Opponent-Rating Diff
NEME
FNAT
After First Kill
NEME
FNAT
Opening Score
NEME
FNAT
Recent on Inferno
Nemesis
13-11
vs Hashiras
Apr 27
13-8
vs big
Apr 10
13-8
vs STATE
Mar 31
13-11
vs rottweilers
Mar 19
9-13
vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Mar 17
fnatic
13-8
vs Project 91
Apr 23
13-4
vs Qual4
Apr 21
13-16
vs alliance
Mar 31
7-13
vs sashi
Mar 30
13-10
vs SAW
Feb 20
More from ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 Playoffs
3 matches