Bo3 · PGL Astana 2026
· 2026-05-13
The MongolZ
vs
Aurora
28%
72%
Series win probability
AURO
2–0
39%
AURO
2–1
33%
TM
2–1
14%
TM
2–0
14%
Model Insights
Aurora is strongly favored at 71%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.05 vs 1.02), stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#10 vs #5), a strong inferno (70% win probability).
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
40%
Mirage · Dust2 · Inferno
Scenario 2
37%
Mirage · Dust2 · Nuke
Scenario 3
23%
Mirage · Dust2 · Overpass
Mirage
TM
10
–
13
AURO
40%
60%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TM
AURO
Overall Rating
TM
AURO
After First Kill
TM
AURO
Ranking
TM
AURO
T Side
TM
AURO
Recent on Mirage
The MongolZ
12-16
vs Falcons
May 12
25-23
vs magic
May 8
14-16
vs FUT
Apr 10
13-8
vs PARIVISION
Apr 9
4-13
vs Astralis
Apr 6
Aurora
13-7
vs B8
Apr 15
13-11
vs Natus Vincere
Apr 15
8-13
vs MOUZ
Apr 14
13-4
vs HOTU
Apr 13
13-9
vs The MongolZ
Mar 27
Dust2
TM
8
–
13
AURO
36%
64%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TM
AURO
After First Death
TM
AURO
Overall Rating
TM
AURO
Ranking
TM
AURO
After First Kill
TM
AURO
Recent on Dust2
The MongolZ
8-13
vs Falcons
May 12
11-13
vs Spirit
May 10
13-2
vs G2
May 10
6-13
vs PARIVISION
Apr 9
13-11
vs Wildcard
Apr 7
Aurora
11-13
vs MOUZ
May 11
13-3
vs The Huns
May 10
16-14
vs PARIVISION
May 10
11-13
vs HEROIC
May 8
4-13
vs Natus Vincere
Apr 15
Inferno
TM
8
–
13
AURO
30%
70%
Win prob
OT 7%
Key factors
After First Kill
TM
AURO
Opponent-Rating Diff
TM
AURO
Overall Rating
TM
AURO
Ranking
TM
AURO
Round Win Rate
TM
AURO
Recent on Inferno
The MongolZ
13-11
vs Falcons
May 12
19-15
vs G2
May 10
13-4
vs magic
May 8
13-5
vs 3DMAX
Apr 11
6-13
vs Aurora
Mar 27
Aurora
4-13
vs Natus Vincere
Apr 15
13-2
vs Alliance
Apr 1
13-3
vs M80
Mar 31
5-13
vs Vitality
Mar 28
13-6
vs The MongolZ
Mar 27
Mirage
TM
10
–
13
AURO
40%
60%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TM
AURO
Overall Rating
TM
AURO
After First Kill
TM
AURO
Ranking
TM
AURO
T Side
TM
AURO
Recent on Mirage
The MongolZ
12-16
vs Falcons
May 12
25-23
vs magic
May 8
14-16
vs FUT
Apr 10
13-8
vs PARIVISION
Apr 9
4-13
vs Astralis
Apr 6
Aurora
13-7
vs B8
Apr 15
13-11
vs Natus Vincere
Apr 15
8-13
vs MOUZ
Apr 14
13-4
vs HOTU
Apr 13
13-9
vs The MongolZ
Mar 27
Dust2
TM
8
–
13
AURO
36%
64%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TM
AURO
After First Death
TM
AURO
Overall Rating
TM
AURO
Ranking
TM
AURO
After First Kill
TM
AURO
Recent on Dust2
The MongolZ
8-13
vs Falcons
May 12
11-13
vs Spirit
May 10
13-2
vs G2
May 10
6-13
vs PARIVISION
Apr 9
13-11
vs Wildcard
Apr 7
Aurora
11-13
vs MOUZ
May 11
13-3
vs The Huns
May 10
16-14
vs PARIVISION
May 10
11-13
vs HEROIC
May 8
4-13
vs Natus Vincere
Apr 15
Nuke
TM
13
–
9
AURO
58%
42%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TM
AURO
After First Kill
TM
AURO
After First Death
TM
AURO
Overall Rating
TM
AURO
Ranking
TM
AURO
Recent on Nuke
The MongolZ
10-13
vs FUT
Apr 10
13-8
vs Wildcard
Apr 7
13-11
vs Spirit
Mar 23
13-11
vs MOUZ
Mar 19
19-17
vs paiN
Mar 6
Aurora
15-19
vs MOUZ
May 11
13-4
vs The Huns
May 10
8-13
vs HEROIC
May 8
13-10
vs INFINITE
Mar 30
5-13
vs Vitality
Mar 28
Mirage
TM
10
–
13
AURO
40%
60%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TM
AURO
Overall Rating
TM
AURO
After First Kill
TM
AURO
Ranking
TM
AURO
T Side
TM
AURO
Recent on Mirage
The MongolZ
12-16
vs Falcons
May 12
25-23
vs magic
May 8
14-16
vs FUT
Apr 10
13-8
vs PARIVISION
Apr 9
4-13
vs Astralis
Apr 6
Aurora
13-7
vs B8
Apr 15
13-11
vs Natus Vincere
Apr 15
8-13
vs MOUZ
Apr 14
13-4
vs HOTU
Apr 13
13-9
vs The MongolZ
Mar 27
Dust2
TM
8
–
13
AURO
36%
64%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TM
AURO
After First Death
TM
AURO
Overall Rating
TM
AURO
Ranking
TM
AURO
After First Kill
TM
AURO
Recent on Dust2
The MongolZ
8-13
vs Falcons
May 12
11-13
vs Spirit
May 10
13-2
vs G2
May 10
6-13
vs PARIVISION
Apr 9
13-11
vs Wildcard
Apr 7
Aurora
11-13
vs MOUZ
May 11
13-3
vs The Huns
May 10
16-14
vs PARIVISION
May 10
11-13
vs HEROIC
May 8
4-13
vs Natus Vincere
Apr 15
Overpass
TM
9
–
13
AURO
34%
66%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TM
AURO
After First Death
TM
AURO
After First Kill
TM
AURO
Overall Rating
TM
AURO
Ranking
TM
AURO
Recent on Overpass
The MongolZ
13-7
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 5
13-9
vs Spirit
Mar 23
13-16
vs Vitality
Mar 21
11-13
vs MOUZ
Mar 8
Aurora
13-6
vs B8
Apr 15
11-13
vs Alliance
Apr 1
13-7
vs Sashi
Mar 31
11-13
vs M80
Mar 31
8-13
vs Legacy
Mar 13
Recent Results
last 11 matches
The MongolZ
Aurora
L
1-2
vs Falcons
Dust2InfernoMirage
May 12
1d ago
L
0-2
vs Spirit
Dust2Ancient
May 10
3d ago
W
2-0
vs G2
Dust2Inferno
May 10
3d ago
W
2-0
vs magic
MirageInferno
May 8
5d ago
W
2-0
vs 3DMAX
InfernoAncient
Apr 11
32d ago
L
0-2
vs FUT
NukeMirage
Apr 10
33d ago
W
2-1
vs PARIVISION
Dust2MirageAncient
Apr 9
34d ago
W
2-0
vs Wildcard
Dust2Nuke
Apr 7
36d ago
L
0-2
vs Astralis
MirageAncient
Apr 6
37d ago
W
2-0
vs EYEBALLERS
OverpassMirage
Apr 5
38d ago
W
2-0
vs BC.Game
Dust2Ancient
Apr 4
39d ago
L
0-2
vs MOUZ
Dust2Nuke
May 11
2d ago
W
2-0
vs The Huns
NukeDust2
May 10
3d ago
W
2-0
vs PARIVISION
AnubisDust2
May 10
3d ago
L
0-2
vs HEROIC
NukeDust2
May 8
5d ago
W
2-0
vs B8
MirageOverpass
Apr 15
28d ago
L
1-2
vs Natus Vincere
InfernoMirageDust2
Apr 15
28d ago
L
0-2
vs MOUZ
Dust2Mirage
Apr 14
29d ago
W
2-0
vs HOTU
MirageDust2
Apr 13
30d ago
L
1-2
vs Alliance
InfernoAnubisOverpass
Apr 1
42d ago
W
2-0
vs Sashi
OverpassDust2
Mar 31
43d ago
L
1-2
vs M80
InfernoAnubisOverpass
Mar 31
43d ago
Player Matchups
The MongolZ
Ratings
Aurora
91
910
AWPADR 75.1KAST 72%
WI
Wicadia
RiflerADR 80.8KAST 72%
MZ
mzinho
RiflerADR 72.9KAST 72%
XA
XANTARES
EntryADR 81.2KAST 74%
CO
cobrazera
RiflerADR 74.0KAST 69%
WO
woxic
AWPADR 71.9KAST 73%
BL
bLitz
EntryADR 74.0KAST 69%
SO
soulfly
RiflerADR 69.0KAST 73%
TE
Techno
RiflerADR 66.2KAST 69%
MA
MAJ3R
RiflerADR 62.8KAST 70%
Unpredicted Maps
4 maps
Anubis
TM
7
–
13
AURO
24%
76%
Win prob
OT 6%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TM
AURO
After First Kill
TM
AURO
Overall Rating
TM
AURO
Map ADR
TM
AURO
Ranking
TM
AURO
Recent on Anubis
The MongolZ
no data
Aurora
13-7
vs PARIVISION
May 10
9-13
vs Alliance
Apr 1
10-13
vs M80
Mar 31
8-13
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 23
13-11
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 15
Overpass
TM
9
–
13
AURO
34%
66%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TM
AURO
After First Death
TM
AURO
After First Kill
TM
AURO
Overall Rating
TM
AURO
Ranking
TM
AURO
Recent on Overpass
The MongolZ
13-7
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 5
13-9
vs Spirit
Mar 23
13-16
vs Vitality
Mar 21
11-13
vs MOUZ
Mar 8
Aurora
13-6
vs B8
Apr 15
11-13
vs Alliance
Apr 1
13-7
vs Sashi
Mar 31
11-13
vs M80
Mar 31
8-13
vs Legacy
Mar 13
Nuke
TM
13
–
9
AURO
58%
42%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TM
AURO
After First Kill
TM
AURO
After First Death
TM
AURO
Overall Rating
TM
AURO
Ranking
TM
AURO
Recent on Nuke
The MongolZ
10-13
vs FUT
Apr 10
13-8
vs Wildcard
Apr 7
13-11
vs Spirit
Mar 23
13-11
vs MOUZ
Mar 19
19-17
vs paiN
Mar 6
Aurora
15-19
vs MOUZ
May 11
13-4
vs The Huns
May 10
8-13
vs HEROIC
May 8
13-10
vs INFINITE
Mar 30
5-13
vs Vitality
Mar 28
Ancient
TM
13
–
11
AURO
54%
46%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
TM
AURO
After First Kill
TM
AURO
Overall Rating
TM
AURO
Ranking
TM
AURO
Pick Rate
TM
AURO
Recent on Ancient
The MongolZ
16-19
vs Spirit
May 10
13-2
vs 3DMAX
Apr 11
13-9
vs PARIVISION
Apr 9
9-13
vs Astralis
Apr 6
13-11
vs BC.Game
Apr 4
Aurora
22-25
vs Vitality
Feb 3
More from PGL Astana 2026
1 match