Bo3 · PGL Astana 2026
· 2026-05-16
MOUZ
vs
Spirit
✓
10%
90%
Series win probability
SPIR
2–0
59%
SPIR
2–1
31%
MOUZ
2–1
5%
MOUZ
2–0
5%
Actual result
Dust2
13–3
SPIR
Nuke
13–2
SPIR
Model Insights
Spirit is strongly favored at 91%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.10 vs 1.06), a strong overpass (86% win probability).
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
43%
Mirage · Dust2 · Overpass
Scenario 2
29%
Mirage · Dust2 · Ancient
Scenario 3
28%
Mirage · Dust2 · Nuke
Mirage
MOUZ
8
–
13
SPIR
30%
70%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Death
MOUZ
SPIR
Days With Lineup Team
MOUZ
SPIR
Days With Lineup Opp
MOUZ
SPIR
Overall Rating
MOUZ
SPIR
Recent on Mirage
MOUZ
13-10
vs G2
May 10
4-13
vs Gentle Mates
May 9
8-13
vs Spirit
Apr 17
5-13
vs FURIA
Apr 15
13-8
vs Aurora
Apr 14
Spirit
13-11
vs FURIA
May 11
13-16
vs Vitality
Apr 19
13-4
vs Falcons
Apr 18
13-8
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
8-13
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
Dust2
MOUZ
5
–
13
SPIR
15%
85%
Win prob
OT 1%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Kill
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Death
MOUZ
SPIR
Ranking
MOUZ
SPIR
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
MOUZ
13-11
vs Aurora
May 15
13-11
vs Aurora
May 12
14-16
vs G2
May 10
5-13
vs Spirit
Apr 17
9-13
vs FURIA
Apr 15
Spirit
13-6
vs G2
May 15
13-8
vs FURIA
May 11
13-11
vs The MongolZ
May 10
13-6
vs The Huns
May 9
5-13
vs Vitality
Apr 19
Overpass
MOUZ
5
–
13
SPIR
14%
86%
Win prob
OT 2%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Kill
MOUZ
SPIR
Ranking
MOUZ
SPIR
Map ADR
MOUZ
SPIR
Overall Rating
MOUZ
SPIR
Recent on Overpass
MOUZ
13-10
vs FUT
Mar 13
13-11
vs The MongolZ
Mar 8
13-3
vs Astralis
Mar 7
16-14
vs FUT
Feb 17
13-3
vs PARIVISION
Feb 14
Spirit
12-16
vs FURIA
May 11
13-2
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
9-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-6
vs 9z
Mar 22
13-7
vs 3DMAX
Mar 6
Mirage
MOUZ
8
–
13
SPIR
30%
70%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Death
MOUZ
SPIR
Days With Lineup Team
MOUZ
SPIR
Days With Lineup Opp
MOUZ
SPIR
Overall Rating
MOUZ
SPIR
Recent on Mirage
MOUZ
13-10
vs G2
May 10
4-13
vs Gentle Mates
May 9
8-13
vs Spirit
Apr 17
5-13
vs FURIA
Apr 15
13-8
vs Aurora
Apr 14
Spirit
13-11
vs FURIA
May 11
13-16
vs Vitality
Apr 19
13-4
vs Falcons
Apr 18
13-8
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
8-13
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
Dust2
MOUZ
5
–
13
SPIR
15%
85%
Win prob
OT 1%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Kill
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Death
MOUZ
SPIR
Ranking
MOUZ
SPIR
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
MOUZ
13-11
vs Aurora
May 15
13-11
vs Aurora
May 12
14-16
vs G2
May 10
5-13
vs Spirit
Apr 17
9-13
vs FURIA
Apr 15
Spirit
13-6
vs G2
May 15
13-8
vs FURIA
May 11
13-11
vs The MongolZ
May 10
13-6
vs The Huns
May 9
5-13
vs Vitality
Apr 19
Ancient
MOUZ
7
–
13
SPIR
22%
78%
Win prob
OT 5%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Kill
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Death
MOUZ
SPIR
Overall Rating
MOUZ
SPIR
Ranking
MOUZ
SPIR
Recent on Ancient
MOUZ
9-13
vs 9z
May 11
13-5
vs Gentle Mates
May 9
13-1
vs The MongolZ
Mar 8
14-16
vs Astralis
Mar 7
10-13
vs Natus Vincere
Feb 20
Spirit
13-11
vs G2
May 15
19-16
vs The MongolZ
May 10
13-3
vs The Huns
May 9
13-8
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
13-2
vs Liquid
Apr 13
Mirage
MOUZ
8
–
13
SPIR
30%
70%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Death
MOUZ
SPIR
Days With Lineup Team
MOUZ
SPIR
Days With Lineup Opp
MOUZ
SPIR
Overall Rating
MOUZ
SPIR
Recent on Mirage
MOUZ
13-10
vs G2
May 10
4-13
vs Gentle Mates
May 9
8-13
vs Spirit
Apr 17
5-13
vs FURIA
Apr 15
13-8
vs Aurora
Apr 14
Spirit
13-11
vs FURIA
May 11
13-16
vs Vitality
Apr 19
13-4
vs Falcons
Apr 18
13-8
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
8-13
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
Dust2
MOUZ
5
–
13
SPIR
15%
85%
Win prob
OT 1%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Kill
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Death
MOUZ
SPIR
Ranking
MOUZ
SPIR
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
MOUZ
13-11
vs Aurora
May 15
13-11
vs Aurora
May 12
14-16
vs G2
May 10
5-13
vs Spirit
Apr 17
9-13
vs FURIA
Apr 15
Spirit
13-6
vs G2
May 15
13-8
vs FURIA
May 11
13-11
vs The MongolZ
May 10
13-6
vs The Huns
May 9
5-13
vs Vitality
Apr 19
Nuke
MOUZ
5
–
13
SPIR
16%
84%
Win prob
OT 2%
✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Kill
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Death
MOUZ
SPIR
Ranking
MOUZ
SPIR
Overall Rating
MOUZ
SPIR
Recent on Nuke
MOUZ
13-8
vs Aurora
May 15
19-15
vs Aurora
May 12
10-13
vs 9z
May 11
16-12
vs Gentle Mates
May 9
9-13
vs 9z
Mar 21
Spirit
10-13
vs Vitality
Apr 19
11-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-9
vs B8
Mar 7
13-10
vs 3DMAX
Mar 6
7-13
vs FURIA
Feb 7
Recent Results
last 11 matches
MOUZ
Spirit
W
2-0
vs Aurora
Dust2Nuke
May 15
12d ago
W
2-0
vs Aurora
Dust2Nuke
May 12
15d ago
L
1-2
vs 9z
NukeInfernoAncient
May 11
16d ago
W
2-1
vs G2
Dust2MirageInferno
May 10
17d ago
W
2-1
vs Gentle Mates
NukeMirageAncient
May 9
18d ago
L
0-2
vs Spirit
Dust2Mirage
Apr 17
40d ago
L
0-2
vs FURIA
MirageDust2
Apr 15
42d ago
W
2-0
vs Aurora
Dust2Mirage
Apr 14
43d ago
W
2-1
vs Legacy
Dust2InfernoMirage
Apr 13
44d ago
L
1-2
vs 9z
Dust2InfernoNuke
Mar 21
67d ago
L
0-2
vs The MongolZ
NukeInferno
Mar 19
69d ago
W
2-0
vs G2
Dust2Ancient
May 15
12d ago
W
2-1
vs FURIA
Dust2OverpassMirage
May 11
16d ago
W
2-0
vs The MongolZ
Dust2Ancient
May 10
17d ago
W
2-0
vs The Huns
Dust2Ancient
May 9
18d ago
L
0-3
vs Vitality
MirageNukeDust2
Apr 19
38d ago
W
2-0
vs Falcons
Dust2Mirage
Apr 18
39d ago
W
2-0
vs MOUZ
Dust2Mirage
Apr 17
40d ago
W
2-1
vs RED Canids
MirageAncientOverpass
Apr 15
42d ago
W
2-0
vs G2
MirageDust2
Apr 15
42d ago
L
0-2
vs Falcons
AnubisMirage
Apr 14
43d ago
W
2-0
vs Liquid
AncientDust2
Apr 13
44d ago
Player Matchups
MOUZ
Ratings
Spirit
XE
xertioN
RiflerADR 83.3KAST 75%
DO
donk
EntryADR 94.0KAST 77%
XE
xelex
RiflerADR 80.8KAST 72%
SH
sh1ro
AWPADR 74.4KAST 77%
SP
Spinx
EntryADR 74.4KAST 73%
MA
magixx
RiflerADR 67.9KAST 73%
JL
jL
RiflerADR 73.5KAST 73%
TN
tN1R
RiflerADR 70.8KAST 72%
TO
torzsi
AWPADR 64.4KAST 72%
ZO
zont1x
RiflerADR 65.6KAST 74%
Unpredicted Maps
3 maps
Nuke
MOUZ
5
–
13
SPIR
16%
84%
Win prob
OT 2%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Kill
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Death
MOUZ
SPIR
Ranking
MOUZ
SPIR
Overall Rating
MOUZ
SPIR
Recent on Nuke
MOUZ
13-8
vs Aurora
May 15
19-15
vs Aurora
May 12
10-13
vs 9z
May 11
16-12
vs Gentle Mates
May 9
9-13
vs 9z
Mar 21
Spirit
10-13
vs Vitality
Apr 19
11-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-9
vs B8
Mar 7
13-10
vs 3DMAX
Mar 6
7-13
vs FURIA
Feb 7
Anubis
MOUZ
7
–
13
SPIR
19%
81%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Kill
MOUZ
SPIR
Ranking
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Death
MOUZ
SPIR
Map ADR
MOUZ
SPIR
Recent on Anubis
MOUZ
no data
Spirit
4-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
3-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
13-10
vs G2
Mar 8
13-7
vs B8
Mar 7
13-8
vs G2
Feb 3
Ancient
MOUZ
7
–
13
SPIR
22%
78%
Win prob
OT 5%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Kill
MOUZ
SPIR
After First Death
MOUZ
SPIR
Overall Rating
MOUZ
SPIR
Ranking
MOUZ
SPIR
Recent on Ancient
MOUZ
9-13
vs 9z
May 11
13-5
vs Gentle Mates
May 9
13-1
vs The MongolZ
Mar 8
14-16
vs Astralis
Mar 7
10-13
vs Natus Vincere
Feb 20
Spirit
13-11
vs G2
May 15
19-16
vs The MongolZ
May 10
13-3
vs The Huns
May 9
13-8
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
13-2
vs Liquid
Apr 13
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