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Bo3  ·  PGL Astana 2026 · 2026-05-16
magic
vs
Falcons
44%
56%
Series win probability
FALC 2–1 30%
FALC 2–0 26%
MAGI 2–0 22%
MAGI 2–1 21%
Actual result
Ancient 13–7 FALC
Dust2 13–5 FALC
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — Falcons is slightly favored at 56% but only leads on 2 of 3 maps. magic's best shot is dust2 where they hold a 56% edge.
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 41% Mirage · Dust2 · Ancient
Scenario 2 37% Mirage · Dust2 · Anubis
Scenario 3 22% Mirage · Dust2 · Inferno
Mirage
MAGI 10 13 FALC
40%
60%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Ranking
MAGI
FALC
After First Kill
MAGI
FALC
Overall Rating
MAGI
FALC
Schedule Strength
MAGI
FALC
Days With Lineup Team
MAGI
FALC
Recent on Mirage
magic
2-13 vs 9z May 15
13-5 vs Gentle Mates May 13
13-8 vs HEROIC May 12
13-9 vs K27 May 11
23-25 vs The MongolZ May 9
Falcons
9-13 vs FURIA May 15
16-12 vs The MongolZ May 12
13-9 vs 9z May 10
13-11 vs FURIA Apr 19
4-13 vs Spirit Apr 18
Dust2
MAGI 13 10 FALC
56%
44%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
MAGI
FALC
Ranking
MAGI
FALC
After First Death
MAGI
FALC
Schedule Strength
MAGI
FALC
Overall Rating
MAGI
FALC
Recent on Dust2
magic
13-9 vs 9z May 15
4-13 vs HEROIC May 12
7-13 vs Monte May 10
13-4 vs Eternal Fire May 2
6-13 vs illwill Apr 5
Falcons
19-17 vs FURIA May 15
13-8 vs The MongolZ May 12
13-11 vs Monte May 11
1-13 vs 9z May 10
13-5 vs K27 May 9
Ancient
MAGI 9 13 FALC
41%
59%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Ranking
MAGI
FALC
After First Death
MAGI
FALC
Overall Rating
MAGI
FALC
Days With Lineup Team
MAGI
FALC
After First Kill
MAGI
FALC
Recent on Ancient
magic
13-11 vs 9z May 15
11-13 vs Monte May 10
6-13 vs Nuclear TigeRES Apr 25
13-2 vs Drama Apr 5
9-13 vs K27 Apr 3
Falcons
13-10 vs Monte May 11
13-11 vs K27 May 9
13-1 vs 3DMAX Apr 13
10-13 vs PARIVISION Mar 27
13-1 vs TYLOO Mar 22
Mirage
MAGI 10 13 FALC
40%
60%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Ranking
MAGI
FALC
After First Kill
MAGI
FALC
Overall Rating
MAGI
FALC
Schedule Strength
MAGI
FALC
Days With Lineup Team
MAGI
FALC
Recent on Mirage
magic
2-13 vs 9z May 15
13-5 vs Gentle Mates May 13
13-8 vs HEROIC May 12
13-9 vs K27 May 11
23-25 vs The MongolZ May 9
Falcons
9-13 vs FURIA May 15
16-12 vs The MongolZ May 12
13-9 vs 9z May 10
13-11 vs FURIA Apr 19
4-13 vs Spirit Apr 18
Dust2
MAGI 13 10 FALC
56%
44%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
MAGI
FALC
Ranking
MAGI
FALC
After First Death
MAGI
FALC
Schedule Strength
MAGI
FALC
Overall Rating
MAGI
FALC
Recent on Dust2
magic
13-9 vs 9z May 15
4-13 vs HEROIC May 12
7-13 vs Monte May 10
13-4 vs Eternal Fire May 2
6-13 vs illwill Apr 5
Falcons
19-17 vs FURIA May 15
13-8 vs The MongolZ May 12
13-11 vs Monte May 11
1-13 vs 9z May 10
13-5 vs K27 May 9
Anubis
MAGI 13 8 FALC
63%
37%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Ranking
MAGI
FALC
After First Kill
MAGI
FALC
Overall Rating
MAGI
FALC
Map ADR
MAGI
FALC
After First Death
MAGI
FALC
Recent on Anubis
magic
9-13 vs Nuclear TigeRES Apr 25
10-13 vs illwill Apr 5
13-3 vs Re Di Apr 4
13-1 vs PIVOSQUAD Apr 4
13-6 vs K27 Apr 3
Falcons
13-4 vs Spirit Apr 14
13-11 vs FURIA Feb 16
13-9 vs FaZe Feb 15
13-5 vs 3DMAX Feb 3
7-13 vs Aurora Feb 1
Mirage
MAGI 10 13 FALC
40%
60%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Ranking
MAGI
FALC
After First Kill
MAGI
FALC
Overall Rating
MAGI
FALC
Schedule Strength
MAGI
FALC
Days With Lineup Team
MAGI
FALC
Recent on Mirage
magic
2-13 vs 9z May 15
13-5 vs Gentle Mates May 13
13-8 vs HEROIC May 12
13-9 vs K27 May 11
23-25 vs The MongolZ May 9
Falcons
9-13 vs FURIA May 15
16-12 vs The MongolZ May 12
13-9 vs 9z May 10
13-11 vs FURIA Apr 19
4-13 vs Spirit Apr 18
Dust2
MAGI 13 10 FALC
56%
44%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
MAGI
FALC
Ranking
MAGI
FALC
After First Death
MAGI
FALC
Schedule Strength
MAGI
FALC
Overall Rating
MAGI
FALC
Recent on Dust2
magic
13-9 vs 9z May 15
4-13 vs HEROIC May 12
7-13 vs Monte May 10
13-4 vs Eternal Fire May 2
6-13 vs illwill Apr 5
Falcons
19-17 vs FURIA May 15
13-8 vs The MongolZ May 12
13-11 vs Monte May 11
1-13 vs 9z May 10
13-5 vs K27 May 9
Inferno
MAGI 16 14 FALC
51%
49%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
MAGI
FALC
Overall Rating
MAGI
FALC
Map Win Rate
MAGI
FALC
After First Kill
MAGI
FALC
Map ADR
MAGI
FALC
Recent on Inferno
magic
16-13 vs Gentle Mates May 13
13-6 vs HEROIC May 12
4-13 vs The MongolZ May 9
22-19 vs Gentle Mates May 3
13-5 vs Drama Apr 5
Falcons
11-13 vs The MongolZ May 12
13-10 vs 3DMAX Apr 13
14-16 vs TYLOO Mar 22
9-13 vs Natus Vincere Mar 20
13-4 vs FURIA Feb 16
Recent Results last 11 matches
magic
Falcons
W 2-1 vs 9z Dust2MirageAncient May 15 12d ago
W 2-0 vs Gentle Mates MirageInferno May 13 14d ago
W 2-1 vs HEROIC MirageDust2Inferno May 12 15d ago
W 2-0 vs K27 MirageOverpass May 11 16d ago
L 0-2 vs Monte AncientDust2 May 10 17d ago
L 0-2 vs The MongolZ MirageInferno May 9 18d ago
W 2-0 vs Gentle Mates MirageInferno May 3 24d ago
W 2-0 vs Eternal Fire MirageDust2 May 2 25d ago
L 1-2 vs Nuclear TigeRES AnubisMirageAncient Apr 25 32d ago
W 2-0 vs Drama InfernoAncient Apr 5 52d ago
L 0-2 vs big MirageOverpass Apr 5 52d ago
W 2-1 vs FURIA MirageNukeDust2 May 15 12d ago
W 2-1 vs The MongolZ Dust2InfernoMirage May 12 15d ago
W 2-0 vs Monte Dust2Ancient May 11 16d ago
L 1-2 vs 9z NukeMirageDust2 May 10 17d ago
W 2-0 vs K27 Dust2Ancient May 9 18d ago
W 2-0 vs FURIA Dust2Mirage Apr 19 38d ago
L 0-2 vs Spirit Dust2Mirage Apr 18 39d ago
W 2-1 vs Vitality MirageDust2Nuke Apr 15 42d ago
W 2-0 vs Spirit AnubisMirage Apr 14 43d ago
W 2-0 vs 3DMAX InfernoAncient Apr 13 44d ago
L 0-2 vs PARIVISION MirageAncient Mar 27 61d ago
Player Matchups
magic
Ratings
Falcons
MA
MaSvAl
EntryADR 75.3KAST 73%
1.17 vs 1.29
M0
m0NESY
AWPADR 80.2KAST 77%
TE
tenzy
RiflerADR 77.2KAST 72%
1.17 vs 1.13
KY
kyousuke
EntryADR 82.2KAST 73%
MO
mo0N
AWPADR 77.5KAST 72%
1.10 vs 1.08
NI
NiKo
RiflerADR 74.8KAST 72%
AW
AW
RiflerADR 75.0KAST 72%
1.04 vs 1.03
TE
TeSeS
RiflerADR 68.6KAST 73%
SF
sFade8
RiflerADR 75.9KAST 69%
0.98 vs 0.85
KA
karrigan
RiflerADR 60.6KAST 65%
Unpredicted Maps 2 maps
Anubis
MAGI 13 8 FALC
63%
37%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Ranking
MAGI
FALC
After First Kill
MAGI
FALC
Overall Rating
MAGI
FALC
Map ADR
MAGI
FALC
After First Death
MAGI
FALC
Recent on Anubis
magic
9-13 vs Nuclear TigeRES Apr 25
10-13 vs illwill Apr 5
13-3 vs Re Di Apr 4
13-1 vs PIVOSQUAD Apr 4
13-6 vs K27 Apr 3
Falcons
13-4 vs Spirit Apr 14
13-11 vs FURIA Feb 16
13-9 vs FaZe Feb 15
13-5 vs 3DMAX Feb 3
7-13 vs Aurora Feb 1
Inferno
MAGI 16 14 FALC
51%
49%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
MAGI
FALC
Overall Rating
MAGI
FALC
Map Win Rate
MAGI
FALC
After First Kill
MAGI
FALC
Map ADR
MAGI
FALC
Recent on Inferno
magic
16-13 vs Gentle Mates May 13
13-6 vs HEROIC May 12
4-13 vs The MongolZ May 9
22-19 vs Gentle Mates May 3
13-5 vs Drama Apr 5
Falcons
11-13 vs The MongolZ May 12
13-10 vs 3DMAX Apr 13
14-16 vs TYLOO Mar 22
9-13 vs Natus Vincere Mar 20
13-4 vs FURIA Feb 16
More from PGL Astana 2026 1 match