Project Leggy
‹ Back
Bo3  ·  PGL Astana 2026 · 2026-05-17
MOUZ ✓
vs
magic
76%
24%
Series win probability
MOUZ 2–0 53%
MOUZ 2–1 23%
MAGI 2–1 17%
MAGI 2–0 7%
Actual result
Mirage 13–2 MOUZ
Inferno 13–7 MOUZ
Model Insights
MOUZ is strongly favored at 76%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a strong mirage (79% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 36% Inferno · Mirage · Dust2
Scenario 2 35% Inferno · Mirage · Ancient
Scenario 3 29% Inferno · Mirage · Overpass
Inferno
MOUZ 13 – 7 MAGI
67%
33%
Win prob OT 7% ✓
Key factors
After First Death
MOUZ
MAGI
Ranking
MOUZ
MAGI
After First Kill
MOUZ
MAGI
Map Firepower
MOUZ
MAGI
CT 4v5
MOUZ
MAGI
Recent on Inferno
MOUZ
13-4 vs 9z May 11
13-7 vs G2 May 10
13-10 vs Legacy Apr 13
8-13 vs 9z Mar 21
3-13 vs The MongolZ Mar 19
magic
16-13 vs Gentle Mates May 13
13-6 vs HEROIC May 12
4-13 vs The MongolZ May 9
22-19 vs Gentle Mates May 3
13-5 vs Drama Apr 5
Mirage
MOUZ 13 – 6 MAGI
79%
21%
Win prob OT 3% ✓
Key factors
After First Kill
MOUZ
MAGI
Ranking
MOUZ
MAGI
After First Death
MOUZ
MAGI
Overall Rating
MOUZ
MAGI
Schedule Strength
MOUZ
MAGI
Recent on Mirage
MOUZ
13-10 vs G2 May 10
4-13 vs Gentle Mates May 9
8-13 vs Spirit Apr 17
5-13 vs FURIA Apr 15
13-8 vs Aurora Apr 14
magic
2-13 vs 9z May 15
13-5 vs Gentle Mates May 13
13-8 vs HEROIC May 12
13-9 vs K27 May 11
23-25 vs The MongolZ May 9
Dust2
MOUZ 13 – 11 MAGI
57%
43%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
MOUZ
MAGI
Ranking
MOUZ
MAGI
Map Firepower
MOUZ
MAGI
After First Death
MOUZ
MAGI
Schedule Strength
MOUZ
MAGI
Recent on Dust2
MOUZ
3-13 vs Spirit May 16
13-11 vs Aurora May 15
13-11 vs Aurora May 12
14-16 vs G2 May 10
5-13 vs Spirit Apr 17
magic
5-13 vs Falcons May 16
13-9 vs 9z May 15
4-13 vs HEROIC May 12
7-13 vs Monte May 10
13-4 vs Eternal Fire May 2
Inferno
MOUZ 13 – 7 MAGI
67%
33%
Win prob OT 7% ✓
Key factors
After First Death
MOUZ
MAGI
Ranking
MOUZ
MAGI
After First Kill
MOUZ
MAGI
Map Firepower
MOUZ
MAGI
CT 4v5
MOUZ
MAGI
Recent on Inferno
MOUZ
13-4 vs 9z May 11
13-7 vs G2 May 10
13-10 vs Legacy Apr 13
8-13 vs 9z Mar 21
3-13 vs The MongolZ Mar 19
magic
16-13 vs Gentle Mates May 13
13-6 vs HEROIC May 12
4-13 vs The MongolZ May 9
22-19 vs Gentle Mates May 3
13-5 vs Drama Apr 5
Mirage
MOUZ 13 – 6 MAGI
79%
21%
Win prob OT 3% ✓
Key factors
After First Kill
MOUZ
MAGI
Ranking
MOUZ
MAGI
After First Death
MOUZ
MAGI
Overall Rating
MOUZ
MAGI
Schedule Strength
MOUZ
MAGI
Recent on Mirage
MOUZ
13-10 vs G2 May 10
4-13 vs Gentle Mates May 9
8-13 vs Spirit Apr 17
5-13 vs FURIA Apr 15
13-8 vs Aurora Apr 14
magic
2-13 vs 9z May 15
13-5 vs Gentle Mates May 13
13-8 vs HEROIC May 12
13-9 vs K27 May 11
23-25 vs The MongolZ May 9
Ancient
MOUZ 13 – 8 MAGI
64%
36%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
Ranking
MOUZ
MAGI
Schedule Strength
MOUZ
MAGI
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
MAGI
After First Death
MOUZ
MAGI
Map Firepower
MOUZ
MAGI
Recent on Ancient
MOUZ
9-13 vs 9z May 11
13-5 vs Gentle Mates May 9
13-1 vs The MongolZ Mar 8
14-16 vs Astralis Mar 7
10-13 vs Natus Vincere Feb 20
magic
7-13 vs Falcons May 16
13-11 vs 9z May 15
11-13 vs Monte May 10
6-13 vs Nuclear TigeRES Apr 25
13-2 vs Drama Apr 5
Inferno
MOUZ 13 – 7 MAGI
67%
33%
Win prob OT 7% ✓
Key factors
After First Death
MOUZ
MAGI
Ranking
MOUZ
MAGI
After First Kill
MOUZ
MAGI
Map Firepower
MOUZ
MAGI
CT 4v5
MOUZ
MAGI
Recent on Inferno
MOUZ
13-4 vs 9z May 11
13-7 vs G2 May 10
13-10 vs Legacy Apr 13
8-13 vs 9z Mar 21
3-13 vs The MongolZ Mar 19
magic
16-13 vs Gentle Mates May 13
13-6 vs HEROIC May 12
4-13 vs The MongolZ May 9
22-19 vs Gentle Mates May 3
13-5 vs Drama Apr 5
Mirage
MOUZ 13 – 6 MAGI
79%
21%
Win prob OT 3% ✓
Key factors
After First Kill
MOUZ
MAGI
Ranking
MOUZ
MAGI
After First Death
MOUZ
MAGI
Overall Rating
MOUZ
MAGI
Schedule Strength
MOUZ
MAGI
Recent on Mirage
MOUZ
13-10 vs G2 May 10
4-13 vs Gentle Mates May 9
8-13 vs Spirit Apr 17
5-13 vs FURIA Apr 15
13-8 vs Aurora Apr 14
magic
2-13 vs 9z May 15
13-5 vs Gentle Mates May 13
13-8 vs HEROIC May 12
13-9 vs K27 May 11
23-25 vs The MongolZ May 9
Overpass
MOUZ 16 – 14 MAGI
52%
48%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Map Win Rate
MOUZ
MAGI
After First Death
MOUZ
MAGI
Ranking
MOUZ
MAGI
CT 4v5
MOUZ
MAGI
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
MAGI
Recent on Overpass
MOUZ
13-10 vs FUT Mar 13
13-11 vs The MongolZ Mar 8
13-3 vs Astralis Mar 7
16-14 vs FUT Feb 17
13-3 vs PARIVISION Feb 14
magic
22-19 vs K27 May 11
11-13 vs big Apr 5
13-11 vs K27 Apr 3
13-9 vs Inner Circle Academy Mar 23
Recent Results last 11 matches
MOUZ
magic
L 0-2 vs Spirit Dust2Nuke May 16 11d ago
W 2-0 vs Aurora Dust2Nuke May 15 12d ago
W 2-0 vs Aurora Dust2Nuke May 12 15d ago
L 1-2 vs 9z NukeInfernoAncient May 11 16d ago
W 2-1 vs G2 Dust2MirageInferno May 10 17d ago
W 2-1 vs Gentle Mates NukeMirageAncient May 9 18d ago
L 0-2 vs Spirit Dust2Mirage Apr 17 40d ago
L 0-2 vs FURIA MirageDust2 Apr 15 42d ago
W 2-0 vs Aurora Dust2Mirage Apr 14 43d ago
W 2-1 vs Legacy Dust2InfernoMirage Apr 13 44d ago
L 1-2 vs 9z Dust2InfernoNuke Mar 21 67d ago
L 0-2 vs Falcons AncientDust2 May 16 11d ago
W 2-1 vs 9z Dust2MirageAncient May 15 12d ago
W 2-0 vs Gentle Mates MirageInferno May 13 14d ago
W 2-1 vs HEROIC MirageDust2Inferno May 12 15d ago
W 2-0 vs K27 MirageOverpass May 11 16d ago
L 0-2 vs Monte AncientDust2 May 10 17d ago
L 0-2 vs The MongolZ MirageInferno May 9 18d ago
W 2-0 vs Gentle Mates MirageInferno May 3 24d ago
W 2-0 vs Eternal Fire MirageDust2 May 2 25d ago
L 1-2 vs Nuclear TigeRES AnubisMirageAncient Apr 25 32d ago
W 2-0 vs Drama InfernoAncient Apr 5 52d ago
Player Matchups
MOUZ
Ratings
magic
XE
xelex
RiflerADR 80.5KAST 72%
1.15 vs 1.16
TE
tenzy
RiflerADR 77.0KAST 72%
XE
xertioN
RiflerADR 82.8KAST 74%
1.13 vs 1.15
MA
MaSvAl
EntryADR 74.7KAST 73%
SP
Spinx
EntryADR 72.9KAST 72%
1.06 vs 1.10
MO
mo0N
AWPADR 77.6KAST 72%
JL
jL
RiflerADR 72.1KAST 72%
1.04 vs 1.03
AW
AW
RiflerADR 74.5KAST 72%
TO
torzsi
AWPADR 64.2KAST 71%
0.99 vs 0.98
SF
sFade8
RiflerADR 75.4KAST 69%
Unpredicted Maps 3 maps
Ancient
MOUZ 13 – 8 MAGI
64%
36%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
Ranking
MOUZ
MAGI
Schedule Strength
MOUZ
MAGI
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
MAGI
After First Death
MOUZ
MAGI
Map Firepower
MOUZ
MAGI
Recent on Ancient
MOUZ
9-13 vs 9z May 11
13-5 vs Gentle Mates May 9
13-1 vs The MongolZ Mar 8
14-16 vs Astralis Mar 7
10-13 vs Natus Vincere Feb 20
magic
7-13 vs Falcons May 16
13-11 vs 9z May 15
11-13 vs Monte May 10
6-13 vs Nuclear TigeRES Apr 25
13-2 vs Drama Apr 5
Anubis
MOUZ 13 – 11 MAGI
54%
46%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
MOUZ
MAGI
Ranking
MOUZ
MAGI
Ban Rate
MOUZ
MAGI
CT 4v5
MOUZ
MAGI
Side Balance
MOUZ
MAGI
Recent on Anubis
MOUZ
no data
magic
9-13 vs Nuclear TigeRES Apr 25
10-13 vs illwill Apr 5
13-3 vs Re Di Apr 4
13-1 vs PIVOSQUAD Apr 4
13-6 vs K27 Apr 3
Overpass
MOUZ 16 – 14 MAGI
52%
48%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Map Win Rate
MOUZ
MAGI
After First Death
MOUZ
MAGI
Ranking
MOUZ
MAGI
CT 4v5
MOUZ
MAGI
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
MAGI
Recent on Overpass
MOUZ
13-10 vs FUT Mar 13
13-11 vs The MongolZ Mar 8
13-3 vs Astralis Mar 7
16-14 vs FUT Feb 17
13-3 vs PARIVISION Feb 14
magic
22-19 vs K27 May 11
11-13 vs big Apr 5
13-11 vs K27 Apr 3
13-9 vs Inner Circle Academy Mar 23
More from PGL Astana 2026 1 match
Spirit over Falcons 82%