Bo5 · PGL Astana 2026
· 2026-05-17
Spirit
✓
vs
Falcons
82%
18%
Series win probability
SPIR
3–0
39%
SPIR
3–1
28%
SPIR
3–2
14%
FALC
3–2
11%
FALC
3–1
5%
Actual result
Dust2
16–12
SPIR
Mirage
13–7
SPIR
Ancient
13–10
SPIR
Model Insights
Spirit is strongly favored at 82%, holding a map advantage on 5 of 5 predicted maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.11 vs 1.06), a strong dust2 (76% win probability).
Predicted Maps
5 maps
Scenario 1
100%
Dust2 · Anubis · Ancient · Mirage · Nuke
Dust2
SPIR
13
–
6
FALC
76%
24%
Win prob
OT 3%
✓
Key factors
After First Kill
SPIR
FALC
Ranking
SPIR
FALC
After First Death
SPIR
FALC
Map Win Rate
SPIR
FALC
Utility Score
SPIR
FALC
Recent on Dust2
Spirit
13-3
vs MOUZ
May 16
13-6
vs G2
May 15
13-8
vs FURIA
May 11
13-11
vs The MongolZ
May 10
13-6
vs The Huns
May 9
Falcons
13-5
vs magic
May 16
19-17
vs FURIA
May 15
13-8
vs The MongolZ
May 12
13-11
vs Monte
May 11
1-13
vs 9z
May 10
Anubis
SPIR
13
–
7
FALC
76%
24%
Win prob
OT 6%
Key factors
Ranking
SPIR
FALC
After First Death
SPIR
FALC
Map ADR
SPIR
FALC
Round Win Rate
SPIR
FALC
Map Win Rate
SPIR
FALC
Recent on Anubis
Spirit
4-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
3-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
13-10
vs G2
Mar 8
13-7
vs B8
Mar 7
13-8
vs G2
Feb 3
Falcons
13-4
vs Spirit
Apr 14
13-11
vs FURIA
Feb 16
13-9
vs FaZe
Feb 15
13-5
vs 3DMAX
Feb 3
7-13
vs Aurora
Feb 1
Ancient
SPIR
13
–
9
FALC
65%
35%
Win prob
OT 10%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
SPIR
FALC
Ranking
SPIR
FALC
After First Kill
SPIR
FALC
Round Win Rate
SPIR
FALC
Overall Rating
SPIR
FALC
Recent on Ancient
Spirit
13-11
vs G2
May 15
19-16
vs The MongolZ
May 10
13-3
vs The Huns
May 9
13-8
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
13-2
vs Liquid
Apr 13
Falcons
13-7
vs magic
May 16
13-10
vs Monte
May 11
13-11
vs K27
May 9
13-1
vs 3DMAX
Apr 13
10-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 27
Mirage
SPIR
13
–
8
FALC
68%
32%
Win prob
OT 8%
✓
Key factors
Ranking
SPIR
FALC
Round Win Rate
SPIR
FALC
After First Death
SPIR
FALC
Sniper Score
SPIR
FALC
CT 4v5
SPIR
FALC
Recent on Mirage
Spirit
13-11
vs FURIA
May 11
13-16
vs Vitality
Apr 19
13-4
vs Falcons
Apr 18
13-8
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
8-13
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
Falcons
9-13
vs FURIA
May 15
16-12
vs The MongolZ
May 12
13-9
vs 9z
May 10
13-11
vs FURIA
Apr 19
4-13
vs Spirit
Apr 18
Nuke
SPIR
13
–
10
FALC
57%
43%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
SPIR
FALC
Ranking
SPIR
FALC
Map ADR
SPIR
FALC
CT 4v5
SPIR
FALC
Map Win Rate
SPIR
FALC
Recent on Nuke
Spirit
13-2
vs MOUZ
May 16
10-13
vs Vitality
Apr 19
11-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-9
vs B8
Mar 7
13-10
vs 3DMAX
Mar 6
Falcons
22-20
vs FURIA
May 15
8-13
vs 9z
May 10
16-14
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-10
vs FURIA
Mar 23
13-7
vs 3DMAX
Feb 14
Recent Results
last 11 matches
Spirit
Falcons
W
2-0
vs MOUZ
Dust2Nuke
May 16
11d ago
W
2-0
vs G2
Dust2Ancient
May 15
12d ago
W
2-1
vs FURIA
Dust2OverpassMirage
May 11
16d ago
W
2-0
vs The MongolZ
Dust2Ancient
May 10
17d ago
W
2-0
vs The Huns
Dust2Ancient
May 9
18d ago
L
0-3
vs Vitality
MirageNukeDust2
Apr 19
38d ago
W
2-0
vs Falcons
Dust2Mirage
Apr 18
39d ago
W
2-0
vs MOUZ
Dust2Mirage
Apr 17
40d ago
W
2-1
vs RED Canids
MirageAncientOverpass
Apr 15
42d ago
W
2-0
vs G2
MirageDust2
Apr 15
42d ago
L
0-2
vs Falcons
AnubisMirage
Apr 14
43d ago
W
2-0
vs magic
AncientDust2
May 16
11d ago
W
2-1
vs FURIA
MirageNukeDust2
May 15
12d ago
W
2-1
vs The MongolZ
Dust2InfernoMirage
May 12
15d ago
W
2-0
vs Monte
Dust2Ancient
May 11
16d ago
L
1-2
vs 9z
NukeMirageDust2
May 10
17d ago
W
2-0
vs K27
Dust2Ancient
May 9
18d ago
W
2-0
vs FURIA
Dust2Mirage
Apr 19
38d ago
L
0-2
vs Spirit
Dust2Mirage
Apr 18
39d ago
W
2-1
vs Vitality
MirageDust2Nuke
Apr 15
42d ago
W
2-0
vs Spirit
AnubisMirage
Apr 14
43d ago
W
2-0
vs 3DMAX
InfernoAncient
Apr 13
44d ago
Player Matchups
Spirit
Ratings
Falcons
DO
donk
EntryADR 94.5KAST 78%
M0
m0NESY
AWPADR 81.2KAST 77%
SH
sh1ro
AWPADR 74.6KAST 77%
KY
kyousuke
RiflerADR 81.5KAST 73%
TN
tN1R
RiflerADR 71.5KAST 73%
NI
NiKo
EntryADR 75.4KAST 72%
MA
magixx
RiflerADR 68.3KAST 74%
TE
TeSeS
RiflerADR 68.7KAST 73%
ZO
zont1x
RiflerADR 66.6KAST 74%
KA
karrigan
RiflerADR 60.8KAST 65%
More from PGL Astana 2026
1 match