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Bo3  ·  Parken Challenger Championship Season 8 · 2026-05-24
Fortress
vs
STATE
31%
69%
Series win probability
STAT 2–0 87%
STAT 2–1 12%
FORT 2–1 1%
FORT 2–0 0%
Actual result
Inferno 13–6 STAT
Nuke 13–7 STAT
Model Insights
STATE is strongly favored at 99%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.04 vs 0.97), a significant ranking advantage (#110 vs #181), a strong nuke (96% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 42% Ancient · Nuke · Overpass
Scenario 2 41% Ancient · Overpass · Inferno
Scenario 3 17% Ancient · Overpass · Mirage
Ancient
FORT 4 13 STAT
9%
91%
Win prob OT 0%
Key factors
Ranking
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
After First Death
FORT
STAT
Map ADR
FORT
STAT
Map Firepower
FORT
STAT
Recent on Ancient
Fortress
16-14 vs Strael Bora May 24
13-7 vs 95 Vikings May 23
6-13 vs AaB Mar 14
5-13 vs Tricked Mar 14
STATE
6-13 vs 100 Thieves May 24
13-1 vs 95 Vikings May 23
7-13 vs Lilmix Apr 27
13-7 vs Sashi Academy Apr 26
5-13 vs MASONIC Apr 26
Nuke
FORT 2 13 STAT
4%
96%
Win prob
Key factors
Ranking
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
Ban Rate
FORT
STAT
Map ADR
FORT
STAT
Map Firepower
FORT
STAT
Recent on Nuke
Fortress
no data
STATE
13-11 vs Invicta May 23
13-5 vs Sashi Academy Apr 26
13-7 vs MASONIC Apr 26
9-13 vs XI Apr 25
13-9 vs ex-RUBY Apr 11
Overpass
FORT 2 13 STAT
7%
93%
Win prob OT 0%
Key factors
Ranking
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
After First Death
FORT
STAT
Map Firepower
FORT
STAT
Map ADR
FORT
STAT
Recent on Overpass
Fortress
13-9 vs Strael Bora May 24
16-12 vs Sashi Academy May 23
8-13 vs Tricked Mar 14
STATE
10-13 vs Lilmix Apr 27
13-3 vs MASONIC Apr 26
13-0 vs XI Apr 25
13-10 vs ENCE Apr 6
11-13 vs RUSTEC Apr 3
Ancient
FORT 4 13 STAT
9%
91%
Win prob OT 0%
Key factors
Ranking
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
After First Death
FORT
STAT
Map ADR
FORT
STAT
Map Firepower
FORT
STAT
Recent on Ancient
Fortress
16-14 vs Strael Bora May 24
13-7 vs 95 Vikings May 23
6-13 vs AaB Mar 14
5-13 vs Tricked Mar 14
STATE
6-13 vs 100 Thieves May 24
13-1 vs 95 Vikings May 23
7-13 vs Lilmix Apr 27
13-7 vs Sashi Academy Apr 26
5-13 vs MASONIC Apr 26
Overpass
FORT 2 13 STAT
7%
93%
Win prob OT 0%
Key factors
Ranking
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
After First Death
FORT
STAT
Map Firepower
FORT
STAT
Map ADR
FORT
STAT
Recent on Overpass
Fortress
13-9 vs Strael Bora May 24
16-12 vs Sashi Academy May 23
8-13 vs Tricked Mar 14
STATE
10-13 vs Lilmix Apr 27
13-3 vs MASONIC Apr 26
13-0 vs XI Apr 25
13-10 vs ENCE Apr 6
11-13 vs RUSTEC Apr 3
Inferno
FORT 6 13 STAT
19%
81%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
Ranking
FORT
STAT
After First Death
FORT
STAT
Map Firepower
FORT
STAT
Map ADR
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
Recent on Inferno
Fortress
14-16 vs Invicta May 23
13-5 vs Sashi Academy May 23
STATE
6-13 vs 100 Thieves May 24
13-10 vs BRUTE Apr 28
10-13 vs Sashi Academy Apr 26
13-4 vs ESC Apr 7
8-13 vs Nemesis Mar 31
Ancient
FORT 4 13 STAT
9%
91%
Win prob OT 0%
Key factors
Ranking
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
After First Death
FORT
STAT
Map ADR
FORT
STAT
Map Firepower
FORT
STAT
Recent on Ancient
Fortress
16-14 vs Strael Bora May 24
13-7 vs 95 Vikings May 23
6-13 vs AaB Mar 14
5-13 vs Tricked Mar 14
STATE
6-13 vs 100 Thieves May 24
13-1 vs 95 Vikings May 23
7-13 vs Lilmix Apr 27
13-7 vs Sashi Academy Apr 26
5-13 vs MASONIC Apr 26
Overpass
FORT 2 13 STAT
7%
93%
Win prob OT 0%
Key factors
Ranking
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
After First Death
FORT
STAT
Map Firepower
FORT
STAT
Map ADR
FORT
STAT
Recent on Overpass
Fortress
13-9 vs Strael Bora May 24
16-12 vs Sashi Academy May 23
8-13 vs Tricked Mar 14
STATE
10-13 vs Lilmix Apr 27
13-3 vs MASONIC Apr 26
13-0 vs XI Apr 25
13-10 vs ENCE Apr 6
11-13 vs RUSTEC Apr 3
Mirage
FORT 4 13 STAT
7%
93%
Win prob OT 0%
Key factors
Ranking
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
Map ADR
FORT
STAT
Map Firepower
FORT
STAT
Side Balance
FORT
STAT
Recent on Mirage
Fortress
9-13 vs Invicta May 23
STATE
13-3 vs Invicta May 23
16-12 vs Lilmix Apr 27
7-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 11
7-13 vs ENCE Apr 6
4-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 5
Recent Results last 11 matches
Fortress
STATE
L 0-2 vs Invicta MirageInferno May 23 4d ago
W 2-0 vs 95 Vikings Dust2Ancient May 23 4d ago
W 2-0 vs Sashi Academy OverpassInferno May 23 4d ago
L 0-1 vs AaB Ancient Mar 14 74d ago
L 0-2 vs Tricked AncientOverpass Mar 14 74d ago
W 2-0 vs 95 Vikings AnubisAncient May 23 4d ago
W 2-0 vs Invicta MirageNuke May 23 4d ago
W 2-0 vs BRUTE InfernoAnubis Apr 28 29d ago
L 1-2 vs Lilmix AncientMirageOverpass Apr 27 30d ago
W 2-1 vs Sashi Academy InfernoNukeAncient Apr 26 31d ago
W 2-1 vs MASONIC AncientOverpassNuke Apr 26 31d ago
W 2-1 vs XI AncientNukeOverpass Apr 25 32d ago
L 1-2 vs ex-RUBY NukeMirageAnubis Apr 11 46d ago
L 1-2 vs ESC InfernoAncientNuke Apr 7 50d ago
W 2-1 vs ENCE OverpassMirageAncient Apr 6 51d ago
L 1-2 vs ex-RUBY NukeMirageAnubis Apr 5 52d ago
Player Matchups
Fortress
Ratings
STATE
GR
GrEnNiE
EntryADR 82.6KAST 71%
1.20 vs 1.09
SL
sL1m3
AWPADR 74.4KAST 71%
BR
Brand
RiflerADR 77.3KAST 72%
1.02 vs 1.06
ZA
Zanto
RiflerADR 70.6KAST 73%
BU
Bukki
RiflerADR 67.1KAST 70%
0.98 vs 1.05
KW
kwezz
RiflerADR 76.1KAST 71%
AS
As K
RiflerADR 68.3KAST 68%
0.94 vs 1.04
TH
thamlike
EntryADR 72.3KAST 74%
K1
K1ngShield
AWPADR 57.4KAST 53%
0.70 vs 0.95
PA
Patti
RiflerADR 68.9KAST 70%
Unpredicted Maps 3 maps
Anubis
FORT 3 13 STAT
4%
96%
Win prob
Key factors
Ranking
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
Map Firepower
FORT
STAT
Map ADR
FORT
STAT
Ban Rate
FORT
STAT
Recent on Anubis
Fortress
no data
STATE
13-4 vs 95 Vikings May 23
13-8 vs BRUTE Apr 28
14-16 vs ex-RUBY Apr 11
10-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 5
7-13 vs BIG Academy Mar 26
Mirage
FORT 4 13 STAT
7%
93%
Win prob OT 0%
Key factors
Ranking
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
Map ADR
FORT
STAT
Map Firepower
FORT
STAT
Side Balance
FORT
STAT
Recent on Mirage
Fortress
9-13 vs Invicta May 23
STATE
13-3 vs Invicta May 23
16-12 vs Lilmix Apr 27
7-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 11
7-13 vs ENCE Apr 6
4-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 5
Inferno
FORT 6 13 STAT
19%
81%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
Ranking
FORT
STAT
After First Death
FORT
STAT
Map Firepower
FORT
STAT
Map ADR
FORT
STAT
After First Kill
FORT
STAT
Recent on Inferno
Fortress
14-16 vs Invicta May 23
13-5 vs Sashi Academy May 23
STATE
6-13 vs 100 Thieves May 24
13-10 vs BRUTE Apr 28
10-13 vs Sashi Academy Apr 26
13-4 vs ESC Apr 7
8-13 vs Nemesis Mar 31
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