Bo3 · ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4
rustec
✗
vs
hashiras
65%
35%
Series win probability
RUST
2–1
34%
RUST
2–0
32%
HASH
2–0
18%
HASH
2–1
17%
Actual result
Dust2
13–4
HASH
Inferno
13–10
HASH
Model Insights
rustec has a moderate edge at 65%, favored on 2 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.06 vs 1.03), a strong nuke (73% win probability).
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
Dust2 · Overpass · Nuke
Dust2
RUST
13
–
10
HASH
47%
53%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
RUST
HASH
After First Death
RUST
HASH
Head-to-Head
RUST
HASH
Map Player Rating
RUST
HASH
Map Win Rate
RUST
HASH
Recent on Dust2
rustec
13-9
vs Nemesis
Apr 8
8-13
vs MANA
Apr 1
6-13
vs ASTRAL
Apr 1
13-6
vs Rune Eaters
Mar 30
13-8
vs Metizport
Mar 29
hashiras
18-22
vs MANA
Apr 10
11-13
vs HEROIC Academy
Apr 4
13-9
vs Imperial Academy
Mar 31
11-13
vs QWENTRY
Mar 24
11-13
vs RUSTEC
Mar 23
Overpass
RUST
13
–
9
HASH
67%
33%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
HASH
Head-to-Head
RUST
HASH
After First Death
RUST
HASH
Opening Kills
RUST
HASH
Days With Lineup Diff
RUST
HASH
Recent on Overpass
rustec
13-4
vs Atreides
Apr 20
13-11
vs STATE
Apr 3
13-7
vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Apr 2
16-12
vs Nigel Mirage
Mar 29
13-11
vs Metizport
Mar 29
hashiras
13-6
vs UNiTY
Apr 11
9-13
vs Lavked
Apr 9
4-13
vs TNC
Mar 28
3-13
vs RUSTEC
Mar 23
13-4
vs Rune Eaters
Mar 22
Nuke
RUST
13
–
9
HASH
66%
34%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
After First Death
RUST
HASH
Head-to-Head
RUST
HASH
Map Player Rating
RUST
HASH
Days With Lineup Diff
RUST
HASH
Opening Kills
RUST
HASH
Recent on Nuke
rustec
13-11
vs Atreides
Apr 20
13-9
vs STATE
Apr 3
13-6
vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Apr 2
13-7
vs ASTRAL
Apr 1
13-5
vs Rune Eaters
Mar 30
hashiras
16-14
vs Bebop
Apr 12
13-11
vs MANA
Apr 10
8-13
vs Lavked
Apr 9
13-9
vs HEROIC Academy
Apr 4
13-11
vs TNC
Mar 28
Player Matchups
Player data not available for this match
Unpredicted Maps
7 maps
Inferno
RUST
7
–
13
HASH
8%
92%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
HASH
After First Death
RUST
HASH
Head-to-Head
RUST
HASH
Opening Kills
RUST
HASH
Ban Rate
RUST
HASH
Recent on Inferno
rustec
5-13
vs Atreides
Apr 20
hashiras
14-16
vs Bebop
Apr 12
7-13
vs MANA
Apr 10
13-10
vs HEROIC Academy
Apr 4
13-8
vs Imperial Academy
Mar 31
13-10
vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Mar 21
Anubis
RUST
13
–
7
HASH
88%
12%
Win prob
OT 5%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
HASH
After First Death
RUST
HASH
Head-to-Head
RUST
HASH
After First Kill
RUST
HASH
Round Win Rate
RUST
HASH
Recent on Anubis
rustec
13-3
vs ASTRAL
Apr 1
9-13
vs K27
Feb 2
hashiras
6-13
vs HYPERSPIRIT
Mar 9
Mirage
RUST
13
–
8
HASH
81%
19%
Win prob
OT 8%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
HASH
Head-to-Head
RUST
HASH
After First Death
RUST
HASH
Star Player
RUST
HASH
After First Kill
RUST
HASH
Recent on Mirage
rustec
8-13
vs Nemesis
Apr 8
6-13
vs MANA
Apr 1
5-13
vs Rune Eaters
Mar 30
13-2
vs Nigel Mirage
Mar 29
13-9
vs MANA
Mar 28
hashiras
no data
Ancient
RUST
10
–
13
HASH
34%
66%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
HASH
Head-to-Head
RUST
HASH
After First Kill
RUST
HASH
Opening Kills
RUST
HASH
Days With Lineup Diff
RUST
HASH
Recent on Ancient
rustec
11-13
vs Nemesis
Apr 8
13-7
vs Oxuji
Mar 24
13-9
vs Nemesis
Mar 9
3-13
vs K27
Feb 2
hashiras
12-16
vs Bebop
Apr 12
13-6
vs UNiTY
Apr 11
8-13
vs TNC
Mar 28
11-13
vs MINLATE
Mar 27
1-13
vs Lavked
Mar 25
Dust2
RUST
13
–
10
HASH
47%
53%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
RUST
HASH
After First Death
RUST
HASH
Head-to-Head
RUST
HASH
Map Player Rating
RUST
HASH
Map Win Rate
RUST
HASH
Recent on Dust2
rustec
13-9
vs Nemesis
Apr 8
8-13
vs MANA
Apr 1
6-13
vs ASTRAL
Apr 1
13-6
vs Rune Eaters
Mar 30
13-8
vs Metizport
Mar 29
hashiras
18-22
vs MANA
Apr 10
11-13
vs HEROIC Academy
Apr 4
13-9
vs Imperial Academy
Mar 31
11-13
vs QWENTRY
Mar 24
11-13
vs RUSTEC
Mar 23
Overpass
RUST
13
–
9
HASH
67%
33%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
RUST
HASH
Head-to-Head
RUST
HASH
After First Death
RUST
HASH
Opening Kills
RUST
HASH
Days With Lineup Diff
RUST
HASH
Recent on Overpass
rustec
13-4
vs Atreides
Apr 20
13-11
vs STATE
Apr 3
13-7
vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Apr 2
16-12
vs Nigel Mirage
Mar 29
13-11
vs Metizport
Mar 29
hashiras
13-6
vs UNiTY
Apr 11
9-13
vs Lavked
Apr 9
4-13
vs TNC
Mar 28
3-13
vs RUSTEC
Mar 23
13-4
vs Rune Eaters
Mar 22
Nuke
RUST
13
–
9
HASH
66%
34%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
After First Death
RUST
HASH
Head-to-Head
RUST
HASH
Map Player Rating
RUST
HASH
Days With Lineup Diff
RUST
HASH
Opening Kills
RUST
HASH
Recent on Nuke
rustec
13-11
vs Atreides
Apr 20
13-9
vs STATE
Apr 3
13-6
vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Apr 2
13-7
vs ASTRAL
Apr 1
13-5
vs Rune Eaters
Mar 30
hashiras
16-14
vs Bebop
Apr 12
13-11
vs MANA
Apr 10
8-13
vs Lavked
Apr 9
13-9
vs HEROIC Academy
Apr 4
13-11
vs TNC
Mar 28
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