Bo3 · PGL Astana 2026
· 2026-05-12
The MongolZ
vs
Falcons
24%
76%
Series win probability
FALC
2–0
40%
FALC
2–1
37%
TM
2–0
13%
TM
2–1
10%
Model Insights
Falcons is strongly favored at 76%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.06 vs 1.03), a strong nuke (78% win probability).
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
39%
Mirage · Ancient · Nuke
Scenario 2
37%
Mirage · Nuke · Dust2
Scenario 3
24%
Mirage · Nuke · Inferno
Mirage
TM
9
–
13
FALC
42%
58%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
TM
FALC
Round Win Rate
TM
FALC
Overall Rating
TM
FALC
Ranking
TM
FALC
Days With Lineup Opp
TM
FALC
Recent on Mirage
The MongolZ
25-23
vs magic
May 8
14-16
vs FUT
Apr 10
13-8
vs PARIVISION
Apr 9
4-13
vs Astralis
Apr 6
13-7
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 5
Falcons
13-9
vs 9z
May 10
13-11
vs FURIA
Apr 19
4-13
vs Spirit
Apr 18
13-10
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-5
vs Spirit
Apr 14
Ancient
TM
7
–
13
FALC
32%
68%
Win prob
OT 7%
Key factors
After First Death
TM
FALC
Round Win Rate
TM
FALC
After First Kill
TM
FALC
Overall Rating
TM
FALC
Ranking
TM
FALC
Recent on Ancient
The MongolZ
16-19
vs Spirit
May 10
13-2
vs 3DMAX
Apr 11
13-9
vs PARIVISION
Apr 9
9-13
vs Astralis
Apr 6
13-11
vs BC.Game
Apr 4
Falcons
13-10
vs Monte
May 11
13-11
vs K27
May 9
13-1
vs 3DMAX
Apr 13
10-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 27
13-1
vs TYLOO
Mar 22
Nuke
TM
7
–
13
FALC
22%
78%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
After First Kill
TM
FALC
Ranking
TM
FALC
Overall Rating
TM
FALC
Map ADR
TM
FALC
After First Death
TM
FALC
Recent on Nuke
The MongolZ
10-13
vs FUT
Apr 10
13-8
vs Wildcard
Apr 7
13-11
vs Spirit
Mar 23
13-11
vs MOUZ
Mar 19
19-17
vs paiN
Mar 6
Falcons
8-13
vs 9z
May 10
16-14
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-10
vs FURIA
Mar 23
13-7
vs 3DMAX
Feb 14
Mirage
TM
9
–
13
FALC
42%
58%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
TM
FALC
Round Win Rate
TM
FALC
Overall Rating
TM
FALC
Ranking
TM
FALC
Days With Lineup Opp
TM
FALC
Recent on Mirage
The MongolZ
25-23
vs magic
May 8
14-16
vs FUT
Apr 10
13-8
vs PARIVISION
Apr 9
4-13
vs Astralis
Apr 6
13-7
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 5
Falcons
13-9
vs 9z
May 10
13-11
vs FURIA
Apr 19
4-13
vs Spirit
Apr 18
13-10
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-5
vs Spirit
Apr 14
Nuke
TM
7
–
13
FALC
22%
78%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
After First Kill
TM
FALC
Ranking
TM
FALC
Overall Rating
TM
FALC
Map ADR
TM
FALC
After First Death
TM
FALC
Recent on Nuke
The MongolZ
10-13
vs FUT
Apr 10
13-8
vs Wildcard
Apr 7
13-11
vs Spirit
Mar 23
13-11
vs MOUZ
Mar 19
19-17
vs paiN
Mar 6
Falcons
8-13
vs 9z
May 10
16-14
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-10
vs FURIA
Mar 23
13-7
vs 3DMAX
Feb 14
Dust2
TM
10
–
13
FALC
39%
61%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
TM
FALC
Round Win Rate
TM
FALC
Overall Rating
TM
FALC
After First Death
TM
FALC
Days With Lineup Team
TM
FALC
Recent on Dust2
The MongolZ
11-13
vs Spirit
May 10
13-2
vs G2
May 10
6-13
vs PARIVISION
Apr 9
13-11
vs Wildcard
Apr 7
13-3
vs BC.Game
Apr 4
Falcons
13-11
vs Monte
May 11
1-13
vs 9z
May 10
13-5
vs K27
May 9
13-11
vs FURIA
Apr 19
7-13
vs Spirit
Apr 18
Mirage
TM
9
–
13
FALC
42%
58%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
TM
FALC
Round Win Rate
TM
FALC
Overall Rating
TM
FALC
Ranking
TM
FALC
Days With Lineup Opp
TM
FALC
Recent on Mirage
The MongolZ
25-23
vs magic
May 8
14-16
vs FUT
Apr 10
13-8
vs PARIVISION
Apr 9
4-13
vs Astralis
Apr 6
13-7
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 5
Falcons
13-9
vs 9z
May 10
13-11
vs FURIA
Apr 19
4-13
vs Spirit
Apr 18
13-10
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-5
vs Spirit
Apr 14
Nuke
TM
7
–
13
FALC
22%
78%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
After First Kill
TM
FALC
Ranking
TM
FALC
Overall Rating
TM
FALC
Map ADR
TM
FALC
After First Death
TM
FALC
Recent on Nuke
The MongolZ
10-13
vs FUT
Apr 10
13-8
vs Wildcard
Apr 7
13-11
vs Spirit
Mar 23
13-11
vs MOUZ
Mar 19
19-17
vs paiN
Mar 6
Falcons
8-13
vs 9z
May 10
16-14
vs Vitality
Apr 15
13-10
vs FURIA
Mar 23
13-7
vs 3DMAX
Feb 14
Inferno
TM
9
–
13
FALC
35%
65%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
TM
FALC
Overall Rating
TM
FALC
Ranking
TM
FALC
Map ADR
TM
FALC
Days With Lineup Team
TM
FALC
Recent on Inferno
The MongolZ
19-15
vs G2
May 10
13-4
vs magic
May 8
13-5
vs 3DMAX
Apr 11
6-13
vs Aurora
Mar 27
13-3
vs MOUZ
Mar 19
Falcons
13-10
vs 3DMAX
Apr 13
14-16
vs TYLOO
Mar 22
9-13
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 20
13-4
vs FURIA
Feb 16
14-16
vs MOUZ
Feb 3
Recent Results
last 11 matches
The MongolZ
Falcons
L
0-2
vs Spirit
Dust2Ancient
May 10
2d ago
W
2-0
vs G2
Dust2Inferno
May 10
2d ago
W
2-0
vs magic
MirageInferno
May 8
4d ago
W
2-0
vs 3DMAX
InfernoAncient
Apr 11
31d ago
L
0-2
vs FUT
NukeMirage
Apr 10
32d ago
W
2-1
vs PARIVISION
Dust2MirageAncient
Apr 9
33d ago
W
2-0
vs Wildcard
Dust2Nuke
Apr 7
35d ago
L
0-2
vs Astralis
MirageAncient
Apr 6
36d ago
W
2-0
vs EYEBALLERS
OverpassMirage
Apr 5
37d ago
W
2-0
vs BC.Game
Dust2Ancient
Apr 4
38d ago
L
0-2
vs Aurora
InfernoMirage
Mar 27
46d ago
W
2-0
vs Monte
Dust2Ancient
May 11
1d ago
L
1-2
vs 9z
NukeMirageDust2
May 10
2d ago
W
2-0
vs K27
Dust2Ancient
May 9
3d ago
W
2-0
vs FURIA
Dust2Mirage
Apr 19
23d ago
L
0-2
vs Spirit
Dust2Mirage
Apr 18
24d ago
W
2-1
vs Vitality
MirageDust2Nuke
Apr 15
27d ago
W
2-0
vs Spirit
AnubisMirage
Apr 14
28d ago
W
2-0
vs 3DMAX
InfernoAncient
Apr 13
29d ago
L
0-2
vs PARIVISION
MirageAncient
Mar 27
46d ago
W
2-1
vs FURIA
MirageDust2Nuke
Mar 23
50d ago
W
2-1
vs TYLOO
InfernoAncientMirage
Mar 22
51d ago
Player Matchups
The MongolZ
Ratings
Falcons
91
910
AWPADR 75.6KAST 72%
M0
m0NESY
AWPADR 81.2KAST 78%
MZ
mzinho
RiflerADR 72.1KAST 72%
NI
NiKo
EntryADR 76.8KAST 73%
CO
cobrazera
RiflerADR 75.1KAST 70%
KY
kyousuke
RiflerADR 80.0KAST 73%
TE
Techno
RiflerADR 67.0KAST 70%
TE
TeSeS
RiflerADR 66.9KAST 74%
BL
bLitz
EntryADR 73.1KAST 69%
KA
karrigan
RiflerADR 63.2KAST 65%
Unpredicted Maps
3 maps
Anubis
TM
6
–
13
FALC
21%
79%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
After First Kill
TM
FALC
After First Death
TM
FALC
Opening Kills
TM
FALC
Map ADR
TM
FALC
Overall Rating
TM
FALC
Recent on Anubis
The MongolZ
no data
Falcons
13-4
vs Spirit
Apr 14
13-11
vs FURIA
Feb 16
13-9
vs FaZe
Feb 15
13-5
vs 3DMAX
Feb 3
7-13
vs Aurora
Feb 1
Inferno
TM
9
–
13
FALC
35%
65%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
TM
FALC
Overall Rating
TM
FALC
Ranking
TM
FALC
Map ADR
TM
FALC
Days With Lineup Team
TM
FALC
Recent on Inferno
The MongolZ
19-15
vs G2
May 10
13-4
vs magic
May 8
13-5
vs 3DMAX
Apr 11
6-13
vs Aurora
Mar 27
13-3
vs MOUZ
Mar 19
Falcons
13-10
vs 3DMAX
Apr 13
14-16
vs TYLOO
Mar 22
9-13
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 20
13-4
vs FURIA
Feb 16
14-16
vs MOUZ
Feb 3
Dust2
TM
10
–
13
FALC
39%
61%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Kill
TM
FALC
Round Win Rate
TM
FALC
Overall Rating
TM
FALC
After First Death
TM
FALC
Days With Lineup Team
TM
FALC
Recent on Dust2
The MongolZ
11-13
vs Spirit
May 10
13-2
vs G2
May 10
6-13
vs PARIVISION
Apr 9
13-11
vs Wildcard
Apr 7
13-3
vs BC.Game
Apr 4
Falcons
13-11
vs Monte
May 11
1-13
vs 9z
May 10
13-5
vs K27
May 9
13-11
vs FURIA
Apr 19
7-13
vs Spirit
Apr 18
More from PGL Astana 2026
3 matches