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Bo3  ·  PGL Astana 2026 · 2026-05-15
Spirit
vs
G2
87%
13%
Series win probability
SPIR 2–0 58%
SPIR 2–1 29%
G2 2–1 7%
G2 2–0 6%
Actual result
Dust2 13–6 SPIR
Ancient 13–11 SPIR
Model Insights
Spirit is strongly favored at 87%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a strong mirage (80% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 42% Dust2 · Ancient · Mirage
Scenario 2 38% Dust2 · Ancient · Overpass
Scenario 3 20% Dust2 · Ancient · Anubis
Dust2
SPIR 13 7 G2
75%
25%
Win prob OT 7%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Days With Lineup Opp
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
Round Win Rate
SPIR
G2
Map Win Rate
SPIR
G2
Recent on Dust2
Spirit
13-8 vs FURIA May 11
13-11 vs The MongolZ May 10
13-6 vs The Huns May 9
5-13 vs Vitality Apr 19
13-7 vs Falcons Apr 18
G2
13-4 vs Monte May 13
11-13 vs PARIVISION May 12
16-14 vs MOUZ May 10
2-13 vs The MongolZ May 10
11-13 vs FaZe May 1
Ancient
SPIR 13 8 G2
77%
23%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
After First Death
SPIR
G2
After First Kill
SPIR
G2
Days With Lineup Opp
SPIR
G2
Recent on Ancient
Spirit
19-16 vs The MongolZ May 10
13-3 vs The Huns May 9
13-8 vs RED Canids Apr 15
13-2 vs Liquid Apr 13
8-13 vs PARIVISION Mar 21
G2
13-2 vs Monte May 13
16-12 vs PARIVISION May 12
13-1 vs Fisher College May 9
13-9 vs FaZe May 1
13-11 vs BetBoom Apr 4
Mirage
SPIR 13 7 G2
80%
20%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
After First Death
SPIR
G2
Round Win Rate
SPIR
G2
Schedule Strength
SPIR
G2
Recent on Mirage
Spirit
13-11 vs FURIA May 11
13-16 vs Vitality Apr 19
13-4 vs Falcons Apr 18
13-8 vs MOUZ Apr 17
8-13 vs RED Canids Apr 15
G2
13-5 vs PARIVISION May 12
10-13 vs MOUZ May 10
13-16 vs FaZe May 1
13-16 vs Vitality Apr 30
7-13 vs Spirit Apr 15
Dust2
SPIR 13 7 G2
75%
25%
Win prob OT 7%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Days With Lineup Opp
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
Round Win Rate
SPIR
G2
Map Win Rate
SPIR
G2
Recent on Dust2
Spirit
13-8 vs FURIA May 11
13-11 vs The MongolZ May 10
13-6 vs The Huns May 9
5-13 vs Vitality Apr 19
13-7 vs Falcons Apr 18
G2
13-4 vs Monte May 13
11-13 vs PARIVISION May 12
16-14 vs MOUZ May 10
2-13 vs The MongolZ May 10
11-13 vs FaZe May 1
Ancient
SPIR 13 8 G2
77%
23%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
After First Death
SPIR
G2
After First Kill
SPIR
G2
Days With Lineup Opp
SPIR
G2
Recent on Ancient
Spirit
19-16 vs The MongolZ May 10
13-3 vs The Huns May 9
13-8 vs RED Canids Apr 15
13-2 vs Liquid Apr 13
8-13 vs PARIVISION Mar 21
G2
13-2 vs Monte May 13
16-12 vs PARIVISION May 12
13-1 vs Fisher College May 9
13-9 vs FaZe May 1
13-11 vs BetBoom Apr 4
Overpass
SPIR 13 5 G2
87%
13%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
After First Death
SPIR
G2
Round Win Rate
SPIR
G2
After First Kill
SPIR
G2
Recent on Overpass
Spirit
12-16 vs FURIA May 11
13-2 vs RED Canids Apr 15
9-13 vs The MongolZ Mar 23
13-6 vs 9z Mar 22
13-7 vs 3DMAX Mar 6
G2
13-11 vs Vitality Apr 30
13-9 vs Astralis Apr 29
13-3 vs Gentle Mates Apr 13
13-3 vs BetBoom Apr 2
13-8 vs Acend Mar 29
Dust2
SPIR 13 7 G2
75%
25%
Win prob OT 7%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Days With Lineup Opp
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
Round Win Rate
SPIR
G2
Map Win Rate
SPIR
G2
Recent on Dust2
Spirit
13-8 vs FURIA May 11
13-11 vs The MongolZ May 10
13-6 vs The Huns May 9
5-13 vs Vitality Apr 19
13-7 vs Falcons Apr 18
G2
13-4 vs Monte May 13
11-13 vs PARIVISION May 12
16-14 vs MOUZ May 10
2-13 vs The MongolZ May 10
11-13 vs FaZe May 1
Ancient
SPIR 13 8 G2
77%
23%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
After First Death
SPIR
G2
After First Kill
SPIR
G2
Days With Lineup Opp
SPIR
G2
Recent on Ancient
Spirit
19-16 vs The MongolZ May 10
13-3 vs The Huns May 9
13-8 vs RED Canids Apr 15
13-2 vs Liquid Apr 13
8-13 vs PARIVISION Mar 21
G2
13-2 vs Monte May 13
16-12 vs PARIVISION May 12
13-1 vs Fisher College May 9
13-9 vs FaZe May 1
13-11 vs BetBoom Apr 4
Anubis
SPIR 13 6 G2
86%
14%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
After First Kill
SPIR
G2
After First Death
SPIR
G2
Map ADR
SPIR
G2
Recent on Anubis
Spirit
4-13 vs Falcons Apr 14
3-13 vs PARIVISION Mar 21
13-10 vs G2 Mar 8
13-7 vs B8 Mar 7
13-8 vs G2 Feb 3
G2
10-13 vs BetBoom Apr 4
13-2 vs Fluxo Mar 30
10-13 vs BetBoom Mar 30
Recent Results last 11 matches
Spirit
G2
W 2-1 vs FURIA Dust2OverpassMirage May 11 16d ago
W 2-0 vs The MongolZ Dust2Ancient May 10 17d ago
W 2-0 vs The Huns Dust2Ancient May 9 18d ago
L 0-3 vs Vitality MirageNukeDust2 Apr 19 38d ago
W 2-0 vs Falcons Dust2Mirage Apr 18 39d ago
W 2-0 vs MOUZ Dust2Mirage Apr 17 40d ago
W 2-1 vs RED Canids MirageAncientOverpass Apr 15 42d ago
W 2-0 vs G2 MirageDust2 Apr 15 42d ago
L 0-2 vs Falcons AnubisMirage Apr 14 43d ago
W 2-0 vs Liquid AncientDust2 Apr 13 44d ago
L 0-2 vs The MongolZ NukeOverpass Mar 23 65d ago
W 2-0 vs Monte AncientDust2 May 13 14d ago
W 2-1 vs PARIVISION MirageDust2Ancient May 12 15d ago
L 1-2 vs MOUZ Dust2MirageInferno May 10 17d ago
L 0-2 vs The MongolZ Dust2Inferno May 10 17d ago
W 2-0 vs Fisher College AncientInferno May 9 18d ago
L 1-2 vs FaZe Dust2AncientMirage May 1 26d ago
L 1-2 vs Vitality MirageOverpassDust2 Apr 30 27d ago
W 2-0 vs Astralis Dust2Overpass Apr 29 28d ago
W 2-0 vs 3DMAX InfernoDust2 Apr 15 42d ago
L 0-2 vs Spirit MirageDust2 Apr 15 42d ago
L 1-2 vs Vitality MirageInfernoDust2 Apr 14 43d ago
Player Matchups
Spirit
Ratings
G2
DO
donk
EntryADR 94.3KAST 77%
1.39 vs 1.16
HE
HeavyGod
RiflerADR 75.5KAST 76%
SH
sh1ro
AWPADR 73.9KAST 76%
1.13 vs 1.11
NE
NertZ
EntryADR 80.9KAST 72%
MA
magixx
RiflerADR 68.0KAST 73%
1.00 vs 1.10
MA
MATYS
RiflerADR 74.7KAST 75%
TN
tN1R
RiflerADR 71.1KAST 72%
1.00 vs 1.07
SU
SunPayus
AWPADR 70.9KAST 76%
ZO
zont1x
RiflerADR 64.6KAST 74%
0.93 vs 1.01
HU
huNter-
RiflerADR 70.9KAST 74%
Unpredicted Maps 3 maps
Nuke
SPIR 13 5 G2
89%
11%
Win prob OT 3%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Ban Rate
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
After First Death
SPIR
G2
After First Kill
SPIR
G2
Recent on Nuke
Spirit
10-13 vs Vitality Apr 19
11-13 vs The MongolZ Mar 23
13-9 vs B8 Mar 7
13-10 vs 3DMAX Mar 6
7-13 vs FURIA Feb 7
G2
no data
Overpass
SPIR 13 5 G2
87%
13%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
After First Death
SPIR
G2
Round Win Rate
SPIR
G2
After First Kill
SPIR
G2
Recent on Overpass
Spirit
12-16 vs FURIA May 11
13-2 vs RED Canids Apr 15
9-13 vs The MongolZ Mar 23
13-6 vs 9z Mar 22
13-7 vs 3DMAX Mar 6
G2
13-11 vs Vitality Apr 30
13-9 vs Astralis Apr 29
13-3 vs Gentle Mates Apr 13
13-3 vs BetBoom Apr 2
13-8 vs Acend Mar 29
Anubis
SPIR 13 6 G2
86%
14%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
After First Kill
SPIR
G2
After First Death
SPIR
G2
Map ADR
SPIR
G2
Recent on Anubis
Spirit
4-13 vs Falcons Apr 14
3-13 vs PARIVISION Mar 21
13-10 vs G2 Mar 8
13-7 vs B8 Mar 7
13-8 vs G2 Feb 3
G2
10-13 vs BetBoom Apr 4
13-2 vs Fluxo Mar 30
10-13 vs BetBoom Mar 30
More from PGL Astana 2026 2 matches