Bo3 · PGL Astana 2026
· 2026-05-15
Spirit
✓
vs
G2
87%
13%
Series win probability
SPIR
2–0
58%
SPIR
2–1
29%
G2
2–1
7%
G2
2–0
6%
Actual result
Dust2
13–6
SPIR
Ancient
13–11
SPIR
Model Insights
Spirit is strongly favored at 87%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a strong mirage (80% win probability).
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
42%
Dust2 · Ancient · Mirage
Scenario 2
38%
Dust2 · Ancient · Overpass
Scenario 3
20%
Dust2 · Ancient · Anubis
Dust2
SPIR
13
–
7
G2
75%
25%
Win prob
OT 7%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Days With Lineup Opp
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
Round Win Rate
SPIR
G2
Map Win Rate
SPIR
G2
Recent on Dust2
Spirit
13-8
vs FURIA
May 11
13-11
vs The MongolZ
May 10
13-6
vs The Huns
May 9
5-13
vs Vitality
Apr 19
13-7
vs Falcons
Apr 18
G2
13-4
vs Monte
May 13
11-13
vs PARIVISION
May 12
16-14
vs MOUZ
May 10
2-13
vs The MongolZ
May 10
11-13
vs FaZe
May 1
Ancient
SPIR
13
–
8
G2
77%
23%
Win prob
OT 9%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
After First Death
SPIR
G2
After First Kill
SPIR
G2
Days With Lineup Opp
SPIR
G2
Recent on Ancient
Spirit
19-16
vs The MongolZ
May 10
13-3
vs The Huns
May 9
13-8
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
13-2
vs Liquid
Apr 13
8-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
G2
13-2
vs Monte
May 13
16-12
vs PARIVISION
May 12
13-1
vs Fisher College
May 9
13-9
vs FaZe
May 1
13-11
vs BetBoom
Apr 4
Mirage
SPIR
13
–
7
G2
80%
20%
Win prob
OT 6%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
After First Death
SPIR
G2
Round Win Rate
SPIR
G2
Schedule Strength
SPIR
G2
Recent on Mirage
Spirit
13-11
vs FURIA
May 11
13-16
vs Vitality
Apr 19
13-4
vs Falcons
Apr 18
13-8
vs MOUZ
Apr 17
8-13
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
G2
13-5
vs PARIVISION
May 12
10-13
vs MOUZ
May 10
13-16
vs FaZe
May 1
13-16
vs Vitality
Apr 30
7-13
vs Spirit
Apr 15
Dust2
SPIR
13
–
7
G2
75%
25%
Win prob
OT 7%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Days With Lineup Opp
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
Round Win Rate
SPIR
G2
Map Win Rate
SPIR
G2
Recent on Dust2
Spirit
13-8
vs FURIA
May 11
13-11
vs The MongolZ
May 10
13-6
vs The Huns
May 9
5-13
vs Vitality
Apr 19
13-7
vs Falcons
Apr 18
G2
13-4
vs Monte
May 13
11-13
vs PARIVISION
May 12
16-14
vs MOUZ
May 10
2-13
vs The MongolZ
May 10
11-13
vs FaZe
May 1
Ancient
SPIR
13
–
8
G2
77%
23%
Win prob
OT 9%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
After First Death
SPIR
G2
After First Kill
SPIR
G2
Days With Lineup Opp
SPIR
G2
Recent on Ancient
Spirit
19-16
vs The MongolZ
May 10
13-3
vs The Huns
May 9
13-8
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
13-2
vs Liquid
Apr 13
8-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
G2
13-2
vs Monte
May 13
16-12
vs PARIVISION
May 12
13-1
vs Fisher College
May 9
13-9
vs FaZe
May 1
13-11
vs BetBoom
Apr 4
Overpass
SPIR
13
–
5
G2
87%
13%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
After First Death
SPIR
G2
Round Win Rate
SPIR
G2
After First Kill
SPIR
G2
Recent on Overpass
Spirit
12-16
vs FURIA
May 11
13-2
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
9-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-6
vs 9z
Mar 22
13-7
vs 3DMAX
Mar 6
G2
13-11
vs Vitality
Apr 30
13-9
vs Astralis
Apr 29
13-3
vs Gentle Mates
Apr 13
13-3
vs BetBoom
Apr 2
13-8
vs Acend
Mar 29
Dust2
SPIR
13
–
7
G2
75%
25%
Win prob
OT 7%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Days With Lineup Opp
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
Round Win Rate
SPIR
G2
Map Win Rate
SPIR
G2
Recent on Dust2
Spirit
13-8
vs FURIA
May 11
13-11
vs The MongolZ
May 10
13-6
vs The Huns
May 9
5-13
vs Vitality
Apr 19
13-7
vs Falcons
Apr 18
G2
13-4
vs Monte
May 13
11-13
vs PARIVISION
May 12
16-14
vs MOUZ
May 10
2-13
vs The MongolZ
May 10
11-13
vs FaZe
May 1
Ancient
SPIR
13
–
8
G2
77%
23%
Win prob
OT 9%
✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
After First Death
SPIR
G2
After First Kill
SPIR
G2
Days With Lineup Opp
SPIR
G2
Recent on Ancient
Spirit
19-16
vs The MongolZ
May 10
13-3
vs The Huns
May 9
13-8
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
13-2
vs Liquid
Apr 13
8-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
G2
13-2
vs Monte
May 13
16-12
vs PARIVISION
May 12
13-1
vs Fisher College
May 9
13-9
vs FaZe
May 1
13-11
vs BetBoom
Apr 4
Anubis
SPIR
13
–
6
G2
86%
14%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
After First Kill
SPIR
G2
After First Death
SPIR
G2
Map ADR
SPIR
G2
Recent on Anubis
Spirit
4-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
3-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
13-10
vs G2
Mar 8
13-7
vs B8
Mar 7
13-8
vs G2
Feb 3
G2
10-13
vs BetBoom
Apr 4
13-2
vs Fluxo
Mar 30
10-13
vs BetBoom
Mar 30
Recent Results
last 11 matches
Spirit
G2
W
2-1
vs FURIA
Dust2OverpassMirage
May 11
16d ago
W
2-0
vs The MongolZ
Dust2Ancient
May 10
17d ago
W
2-0
vs The Huns
Dust2Ancient
May 9
18d ago
L
0-3
vs Vitality
MirageNukeDust2
Apr 19
38d ago
W
2-0
vs Falcons
Dust2Mirage
Apr 18
39d ago
W
2-0
vs MOUZ
Dust2Mirage
Apr 17
40d ago
W
2-1
vs RED Canids
MirageAncientOverpass
Apr 15
42d ago
W
2-0
vs G2
MirageDust2
Apr 15
42d ago
L
0-2
vs Falcons
AnubisMirage
Apr 14
43d ago
W
2-0
vs Liquid
AncientDust2
Apr 13
44d ago
L
0-2
vs The MongolZ
NukeOverpass
Mar 23
65d ago
W
2-0
vs Monte
AncientDust2
May 13
14d ago
W
2-1
vs PARIVISION
MirageDust2Ancient
May 12
15d ago
L
1-2
vs MOUZ
Dust2MirageInferno
May 10
17d ago
L
0-2
vs The MongolZ
Dust2Inferno
May 10
17d ago
W
2-0
vs Fisher College
AncientInferno
May 9
18d ago
L
1-2
vs FaZe
Dust2AncientMirage
May 1
26d ago
L
1-2
vs Vitality
MirageOverpassDust2
Apr 30
27d ago
W
2-0
vs Astralis
Dust2Overpass
Apr 29
28d ago
W
2-0
vs 3DMAX
InfernoDust2
Apr 15
42d ago
L
0-2
vs Spirit
MirageDust2
Apr 15
42d ago
L
1-2
vs Vitality
MirageInfernoDust2
Apr 14
43d ago
Player Matchups
Spirit
Ratings
G2
DO
donk
EntryADR 94.3KAST 77%
HE
HeavyGod
RiflerADR 75.5KAST 76%
SH
sh1ro
AWPADR 73.9KAST 76%
NE
NertZ
EntryADR 80.9KAST 72%
MA
magixx
RiflerADR 68.0KAST 73%
MA
MATYS
RiflerADR 74.7KAST 75%
TN
tN1R
RiflerADR 71.1KAST 72%
SU
SunPayus
AWPADR 70.9KAST 76%
ZO
zont1x
RiflerADR 64.6KAST 74%
HU
huNter-
RiflerADR 70.9KAST 74%
Unpredicted Maps
3 maps
Nuke
SPIR
13
–
5
G2
89%
11%
Win prob
OT 3%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Ban Rate
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
After First Death
SPIR
G2
After First Kill
SPIR
G2
Recent on Nuke
Spirit
10-13
vs Vitality
Apr 19
11-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-9
vs B8
Mar 7
13-10
vs 3DMAX
Mar 6
7-13
vs FURIA
Feb 7
G2
no data
Overpass
SPIR
13
–
5
G2
87%
13%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
After First Death
SPIR
G2
Round Win Rate
SPIR
G2
After First Kill
SPIR
G2
Recent on Overpass
Spirit
12-16
vs FURIA
May 11
13-2
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
9-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-6
vs 9z
Mar 22
13-7
vs 3DMAX
Mar 6
G2
13-11
vs Vitality
Apr 30
13-9
vs Astralis
Apr 29
13-3
vs Gentle Mates
Apr 13
13-3
vs BetBoom
Apr 2
13-8
vs Acend
Mar 29
Anubis
SPIR
13
–
6
G2
86%
14%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
SPIR
G2
Ranking
SPIR
G2
After First Kill
SPIR
G2
After First Death
SPIR
G2
Map ADR
SPIR
G2
Recent on Anubis
Spirit
4-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
3-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
13-10
vs G2
Mar 8
13-7
vs B8
Mar 7
13-8
vs G2
Feb 3
G2
10-13
vs BetBoom
Apr 4
13-2
vs Fluxo
Mar 30
10-13
vs BetBoom
Mar 30
More from PGL Astana 2026
2 matches