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Bo3  ·  PGL Astana 2026 · 2026-05-15
FURIA
vs
Falcons ✓
29%
71%
Series win probability
FALC 2–0 41%
FALC 2–1 30%
FURI 2–1 16%
FURI 2–0 13%
Actual result
Mirage 13–9 FURI
Nuke 22–20 FALC
Dust2 19–17 FALC
Model Insights
Falcons is strongly favored at 71%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a strong mirage (67% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 37% Dust2 · Mirage · Inferno
Scenario 2 36% Dust2 · Mirage · Nuke
Scenario 3 27% Dust2 · Mirage · Anubis
Dust2
FURI 10 – 13 FALC
39%
61%
Win prob OT 11% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FURI
FALC
After First Death
FURI
FALC
Ranking
FURI
FALC
After First Kill
FURI
FALC
Sniper Score
FURI
FALC
Recent on Dust2
FURIA
8-13 vs Spirit May 11
4-13 vs FaZe Apr 30
11-13 vs Falcons Apr 19
13-9 vs MOUZ Apr 15
13-4 vs Natus Vincere Apr 14
Falcons
13-8 vs The MongolZ May 12
13-11 vs Monte May 11
1-13 vs 9z May 10
13-5 vs K27 May 9
13-11 vs FURIA Apr 19
Mirage
FURI 8 – 13 FALC
33%
67%
Win prob OT 9% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FURI
FALC
After First Death
FURI
FALC
Ranking
FURI
FALC
Map Win Rate
FURI
FALC
Sniper Score
FURI
FALC
Recent on Mirage
FURIA
11-13 vs Spirit May 11
13-4 vs HEROIC May 10
13-7 vs FaZe Apr 30
10-13 vs GamerLegion Apr 29
11-13 vs Falcons Apr 19
Falcons
16-12 vs The MongolZ May 12
13-9 vs 9z May 10
13-11 vs FURIA Apr 19
4-13 vs Spirit Apr 18
13-10 vs Vitality Apr 15
Inferno
FURI 10 – 13 FALC
35%
65%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FURI
FALC
Map ADR
FURI
FALC
Ranking
FURI
FALC
Map Win Rate
FURI
FALC
After First Death
FURI
FALC
Recent on Inferno
FURIA
13-6 vs Gentle Mates May 12
13-7 vs HEROIC May 10
13-5 vs GamerLegion Apr 29
13-3 vs Passion UA Apr 13
6-13 vs Aurora Mar 20
Falcons
11-13 vs The MongolZ May 12
13-10 vs 3DMAX Apr 13
14-16 vs TYLOO Mar 22
9-13 vs Natus Vincere Mar 20
13-4 vs FURIA Feb 16
Dust2
FURI 10 – 13 FALC
39%
61%
Win prob OT 11% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FURI
FALC
After First Death
FURI
FALC
Ranking
FURI
FALC
After First Kill
FURI
FALC
Sniper Score
FURI
FALC
Recent on Dust2
FURIA
8-13 vs Spirit May 11
4-13 vs FaZe Apr 30
11-13 vs Falcons Apr 19
13-9 vs MOUZ Apr 15
13-4 vs Natus Vincere Apr 14
Falcons
13-8 vs The MongolZ May 12
13-11 vs Monte May 11
1-13 vs 9z May 10
13-5 vs K27 May 9
13-11 vs FURIA Apr 19
Mirage
FURI 8 – 13 FALC
33%
67%
Win prob OT 9% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FURI
FALC
After First Death
FURI
FALC
Ranking
FURI
FALC
Map Win Rate
FURI
FALC
Sniper Score
FURI
FALC
Recent on Mirage
FURIA
11-13 vs Spirit May 11
13-4 vs HEROIC May 10
13-7 vs FaZe Apr 30
10-13 vs GamerLegion Apr 29
11-13 vs Falcons Apr 19
Falcons
16-12 vs The MongolZ May 12
13-9 vs 9z May 10
13-11 vs FURIA Apr 19
4-13 vs Spirit Apr 18
13-10 vs Vitality Apr 15
Nuke
FURI 8 – 13 FALC
26%
74%
Win prob OT 8% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FURI
FALC
After First Kill
FURI
FALC
After First Death
FURI
FALC
Ranking
FURI
FALC
Map ADR
FURI
FALC
Recent on Nuke
FURIA
13-11 vs Gentle Mates May 12
13-3 vs Monte May 9
3-13 vs FaZe Apr 30
5-13 vs GamerLegion Apr 29
16-13 vs Natus Vincere Apr 14
Falcons
8-13 vs 9z May 10
16-14 vs Vitality Apr 15
13-10 vs FURIA Mar 23
13-7 vs 3DMAX Feb 14
Dust2
FURI 10 – 13 FALC
39%
61%
Win prob OT 11% ✓
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FURI
FALC
After First Death
FURI
FALC
Ranking
FURI
FALC
After First Kill
FURI
FALC
Sniper Score
FURI
FALC
Recent on Dust2
FURIA
8-13 vs Spirit May 11
4-13 vs FaZe Apr 30
11-13 vs Falcons Apr 19
13-9 vs MOUZ Apr 15
13-4 vs Natus Vincere Apr 14
Falcons
13-8 vs The MongolZ May 12
13-11 vs Monte May 11
1-13 vs 9z May 10
13-5 vs K27 May 9
13-11 vs FURIA Apr 19
Mirage
FURI 8 – 13 FALC
33%
67%
Win prob OT 9% ✗
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FURI
FALC
After First Death
FURI
FALC
Ranking
FURI
FALC
Map Win Rate
FURI
FALC
Sniper Score
FURI
FALC
Recent on Mirage
FURIA
11-13 vs Spirit May 11
13-4 vs HEROIC May 10
13-7 vs FaZe Apr 30
10-13 vs GamerLegion Apr 29
11-13 vs Falcons Apr 19
Falcons
16-12 vs The MongolZ May 12
13-9 vs 9z May 10
13-11 vs FURIA Apr 19
4-13 vs Spirit Apr 18
13-10 vs Vitality Apr 15
Anubis
FURI 7 – 13 FALC
23%
77%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FURI
FALC
Ban Rate
FURI
FALC
Ranking
FURI
FALC
After First Death
FURI
FALC
Map ADR
FURI
FALC
Recent on Anubis
FURIA
11-13 vs Falcons Feb 16
13-9 vs FUT Feb 15
Falcons
13-4 vs Spirit Apr 14
13-11 vs FURIA Feb 16
13-9 vs FaZe Feb 15
13-5 vs 3DMAX Feb 3
7-13 vs Aurora Feb 1
Recent Results last 11 matches
FURIA
Falcons
W 2-1 vs Gentle Mates NukeOverpassInferno May 12 15d ago
L 1-2 vs Spirit Dust2OverpassMirage May 11 16d ago
W 2-0 vs HEROIC MirageInferno May 10 17d ago
W 2-0 vs Monte NukeOverpass May 9 18d ago
L 1-2 vs FaZe Dust2MirageNuke Apr 30 27d ago
L 1-2 vs GamerLegion InfernoNukeMirage Apr 29 28d ago
L 0-2 vs Falcons Dust2Mirage Apr 19 38d ago
L 0-2 vs Vitality OverpassAncient Apr 18 39d ago
W 2-0 vs MOUZ MirageDust2 Apr 15 42d ago
W 2-1 vs Natus Vincere MirageDust2Nuke Apr 14 43d ago
W 2-0 vs Passion UA InfernoMirage Apr 13 44d ago
W 2-1 vs The MongolZ Dust2InfernoMirage May 12 15d ago
W 2-0 vs Monte Dust2Ancient May 11 16d ago
L 1-2 vs 9z NukeMirageDust2 May 10 17d ago
W 2-0 vs K27 Dust2Ancient May 9 18d ago
W 2-0 vs FURIA Dust2Mirage Apr 19 38d ago
L 0-2 vs Spirit Dust2Mirage Apr 18 39d ago
W 2-1 vs Vitality MirageDust2Nuke Apr 15 42d ago
W 2-0 vs Spirit AnubisMirage Apr 14 43d ago
W 2-0 vs 3DMAX InfernoAncient Apr 13 44d ago
L 0-2 vs PARIVISION MirageAncient Mar 27 61d ago
W 2-1 vs FURIA MirageDust2Nuke Mar 23 65d ago
Player Matchups
FURIA
Ratings
Falcons
KS
KSCERATO
EntryADR 80.2KAST 74%
1.18 vs 1.32
M0
m0NESY
AWPADR 81.4KAST 78%
MO
molodoy
AWPADR 75.9KAST 74%
1.14 vs 1.12
KY
kyousuke
RiflerADR 81.5KAST 73%
YE
YEKINDAR
RiflerADR 78.3KAST 71%
1.05 vs 1.11
NI
NiKo
EntryADR 76.7KAST 72%
YU
yuurih
RiflerADR 65.6KAST 74%
0.97 vs 1.01
TE
TeSeS
RiflerADR 66.4KAST 73%
FA
FalleN
RiflerADR 61.9KAST 70%
0.90 vs 0.88
KA
karrigan
RiflerADR 62.6KAST 66%
Unpredicted Maps 3 maps
Ancient
FURI 4 – 13 FALC
8%
92%
Win prob OT 1%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FURI
FALC
After First Kill
FURI
FALC
Ban Rate
FURI
FALC
Ranking
FURI
FALC
Pistol Rounds
FURI
FALC
Recent on Ancient
FURIA
10-13 vs Vitality Apr 18
Falcons
13-10 vs Monte May 11
13-11 vs K27 May 9
13-1 vs 3DMAX Apr 13
10-13 vs PARIVISION Mar 27
13-1 vs TYLOO Mar 22
Anubis
FURI 7 – 13 FALC
23%
77%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FURI
FALC
Ban Rate
FURI
FALC
Ranking
FURI
FALC
After First Death
FURI
FALC
Map ADR
FURI
FALC
Recent on Anubis
FURIA
11-13 vs Falcons Feb 16
13-9 vs FUT Feb 15
Falcons
13-4 vs Spirit Apr 14
13-11 vs FURIA Feb 16
13-9 vs FaZe Feb 15
13-5 vs 3DMAX Feb 3
7-13 vs Aurora Feb 1
Nuke
FURI 8 – 13 FALC
26%
74%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Opponent-Rating Diff
FURI
FALC
After First Kill
FURI
FALC
After First Death
FURI
FALC
Ranking
FURI
FALC
Map ADR
FURI
FALC
Recent on Nuke
FURIA
13-11 vs Gentle Mates May 12
13-3 vs Monte May 9
3-13 vs FaZe Apr 30
5-13 vs GamerLegion Apr 29
16-13 vs Natus Vincere Apr 14
Falcons
8-13 vs 9z May 10
16-14 vs Vitality Apr 15
13-10 vs FURIA Mar 23
13-7 vs 3DMAX Feb 14
More from PGL Astana 2026 2 matches
Spirit over G2 87% 9z over magic 58%