Bo3 · ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4
phantom
✓
vs
atreides
55%
45%
Series win probability
PHAN
2–0
40%
ATRE
2–1
37%
PHAN
2–1
14%
ATRE
2–0
8%
Actual result
Mirage
13–8
Ancient
13–6
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — phantom is slightly favored at 55% but only leads on 1 of 3 maps. Key factors: a significant ranking advantage (#98 vs #167), a strong mirage (83% win probability). atreides's best shot is ancient where they hold a 79% edge.
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
40%
Nuke · Mirage · Ancient
Scenario 2
40%
Nuke · Mirage · Overpass
Scenario 3
20%
Nuke · Mirage · Dust2
Nuke
PHAN
13
–
10
ATRE
48%
52%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
PHAN
ATRE
T Side
PHAN
ATRE
Map Win Rate
PHAN
ATRE
After First Death
PHAN
ATRE
Experience
PHAN
ATRE
Recent on Nuke
phantom
6-13
vs GenOne
Apr 16
7-13
vs Lavked
Apr 15
4-13
vs ex-RUBY
Apr 14
9-13
vs Metizport
Apr 14
13-8
vs HEROIC Academy
Apr 13
atreides
19-16
vs BASEMENT BOYS
Apr 22
11-13
vs RUSTEC
Apr 20
13-1
vs Clutchain fe
Apr 18
9-13
vs QUAZAR
Apr 3
9-13
vs Lavked
Mar 23
Mirage
PHAN
13
–
8
ATRE
85%
15%
Win prob
OT 8%
✓
Key factors
Ranking
PHAN
ATRE
After First Death
PHAN
ATRE
After First Kill
PHAN
ATRE
Round Win Rate
PHAN
ATRE
Opening Score
PHAN
ATRE
Recent on Mirage
phantom
14-16
vs Lavked
Apr 15
16-14
vs ex-RUBY
Apr 14
16-14
vs Ursa
Apr 10
14-16
vs BESTIA
Apr 1
11-13
vs B8
Apr 1
atreides
16-13
vs BASEMENT BOYS
Apr 22
13-5
vs Clutchain fe
Apr 18
2-13
vs UNiTY
Apr 1
13-0
vs EXSAD
Mar 29
10-13
vs Lavked
Mar 23
Ancient
PHAN
9
–
13
ATRE
27%
73%
Win prob
OT 9%
✓
Key factors
After First Kill
PHAN
ATRE
Map Player Rating
PHAN
ATRE
Round Win Rate
PHAN
ATRE
Ranking
PHAN
ATRE
Schedule Strength
PHAN
ATRE
Recent on Ancient
phantom
14-16
vs FAVBET
Apr 18
5-13
vs B8
Apr 1
16-13
vs AM
Apr 1
13-6
vs Z7
Mar 31
13-8
vs maquinas
Mar 31
atreides
13-7
vs VP.Prodigy
Apr 22
13-2
vs EXSAD
Mar 29
13-2
vs brazylijski luz
Mar 1
5-13
vs Aurora Young Blud
Feb 26
13-8
vs CSDIILIT
Feb 13
Nuke
PHAN
13
–
10
ATRE
48%
52%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
PHAN
ATRE
T Side
PHAN
ATRE
Map Win Rate
PHAN
ATRE
After First Death
PHAN
ATRE
Experience
PHAN
ATRE
Recent on Nuke
phantom
6-13
vs GenOne
Apr 16
7-13
vs Lavked
Apr 15
4-13
vs ex-RUBY
Apr 14
9-13
vs Metizport
Apr 14
13-8
vs HEROIC Academy
Apr 13
atreides
19-16
vs BASEMENT BOYS
Apr 22
11-13
vs RUSTEC
Apr 20
13-1
vs Clutchain fe
Apr 18
9-13
vs QUAZAR
Apr 3
9-13
vs Lavked
Mar 23
Mirage
PHAN
13
–
8
ATRE
85%
15%
Win prob
OT 8%
✓
Key factors
Ranking
PHAN
ATRE
After First Death
PHAN
ATRE
After First Kill
PHAN
ATRE
Round Win Rate
PHAN
ATRE
Opening Score
PHAN
ATRE
Recent on Mirage
phantom
14-16
vs Lavked
Apr 15
16-14
vs ex-RUBY
Apr 14
16-14
vs Ursa
Apr 10
14-16
vs BESTIA
Apr 1
11-13
vs B8
Apr 1
atreides
16-13
vs BASEMENT BOYS
Apr 22
13-5
vs Clutchain fe
Apr 18
2-13
vs UNiTY
Apr 1
13-0
vs EXSAD
Mar 29
10-13
vs Lavked
Mar 23
Overpass
PHAN
13
–
7
ATRE
87%
13%
Win prob
OT 6%
Key factors
After First Death
PHAN
ATRE
Ranking
PHAN
ATRE
After First Kill
PHAN
ATRE
Opening Score
PHAN
ATRE
Map Player Rating
PHAN
ATRE
Recent on Overpass
phantom
9-13
vs Metizport
Apr 14
11-13
vs Sashi
Feb 23
13-10
vs illwill
Feb 23
13-8
vs SINNERS
Feb 22
12-16
vs Young Ninjas
Feb 21
atreides
4-13
vs RUSTEC
Apr 20
13-16
vs QUAZAR
Apr 3
13-9
vs Lavked
Mar 23
14-16
vs QWENTRY
Mar 17
13-8
vs Aurora Young Blud
Feb 26
Nuke
PHAN
13
–
10
ATRE
48%
52%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
PHAN
ATRE
T Side
PHAN
ATRE
Map Win Rate
PHAN
ATRE
After First Death
PHAN
ATRE
Experience
PHAN
ATRE
Recent on Nuke
phantom
6-13
vs GenOne
Apr 16
7-13
vs Lavked
Apr 15
4-13
vs ex-RUBY
Apr 14
9-13
vs Metizport
Apr 14
13-8
vs HEROIC Academy
Apr 13
atreides
19-16
vs BASEMENT BOYS
Apr 22
11-13
vs RUSTEC
Apr 20
13-1
vs Clutchain fe
Apr 18
9-13
vs QUAZAR
Apr 3
9-13
vs Lavked
Mar 23
Mirage
PHAN
13
–
8
ATRE
85%
15%
Win prob
OT 8%
✓
Key factors
Ranking
PHAN
ATRE
After First Death
PHAN
ATRE
After First Kill
PHAN
ATRE
Round Win Rate
PHAN
ATRE
Opening Score
PHAN
ATRE
Recent on Mirage
phantom
14-16
vs Lavked
Apr 15
16-14
vs ex-RUBY
Apr 14
16-14
vs Ursa
Apr 10
14-16
vs BESTIA
Apr 1
11-13
vs B8
Apr 1
atreides
16-13
vs BASEMENT BOYS
Apr 22
13-5
vs Clutchain fe
Apr 18
2-13
vs UNiTY
Apr 1
13-0
vs EXSAD
Mar 29
10-13
vs Lavked
Mar 23
Dust2
PHAN
13
–
10
ATRE
71%
29%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Ranking
PHAN
ATRE
After First Death
PHAN
ATRE
After First Kill
PHAN
ATRE
Round Win Rate
PHAN
ATRE
Opening Score
PHAN
ATRE
Recent on Dust2
phantom
10-13
vs FAVBET
Apr 18
7-13
vs GenOne
Apr 16
6-13
vs ex-RUBY
Apr 14
13-5
vs HEROIC Academy
Apr 13
13-3
vs Ursa
Apr 10
atreides
13-8
vs VP.Prodigy
Apr 22
9-13
vs QWENTRY
Mar 17
9-13
vs QWENTRY
Feb 14
Recent Results
last 11 matches
phantom
atreides
L
0-2
vs FAVBET
AncientDust2
Apr 18
8d ago
L
0-2
vs GenOne
Dust2Nuke
Apr 16
10d ago
L
0-2
vs Lavked
NukeMirage
Apr 15
11d ago
L
1-2
vs ex-RUBY
NukeMirageDust2
Apr 14
12d ago
L
0-2
vs Metizport
NukeOverpass
Apr 14
12d ago
W
2-0
vs HEROIC Academy
NukeDust2
Apr 13
13d ago
W
2-1
vs Ursa
Dust2NukeMirage
Apr 10
16d ago
L
0-2
vs BESTIA
NukeMirage
Apr 1
25d ago
L
1-2
vs B8
NukeMirageAncient
Apr 1
25d ago
W
2-1
vs AM
NukeDust2Ancient
Apr 1
25d ago
L
0-1
vs B8
Dust2
Mar 31
26d ago
W
2-1
vs BASEMENT BOYS
InfernoNukeMirage
Apr 22
4d ago
W
2-0
vs VP.Prodigy
AncientDust2
Apr 22
4d ago
L
1-2
vs RUSTEC
InfernoNukeOverpass
Apr 20
6d ago
W
2-0
vs Clutchain fe
MirageNuke
Apr 18
8d ago
L
1-2
vs QUAZAR
NukeInfernoOverpass
Apr 3
23d ago
L
0-2
vs UNiTY
MirageInferno
Apr 1
25d ago
W
2-0
vs EXSAD
AncientMirage
Mar 29
28d ago
L
1-2
vs Lavked
MirageOverpassNuke
Mar 23
34d ago
L
1-2
vs QWENTRY
MirageDust2Overpass
Mar 17
40d ago
L
0-2
vs Hashiras
InfernoNuke
Mar 16
41d ago
W
2-1
vs brazylijski luz
InfernoNukeAncient
Mar 1
56d ago
Player Matchups
phantom
Rating 3.0
atreides
KY
Kylar
RiflerADR 72.6KAST 72%
SM
smekk
RiflerADR 74.3KAST 75%
KE
KEi
AWPADR 77.4KAST 72%
DE
DEPRESHN
AWPADR 73.2KAST 74%
MW
mwlky
AWPADR 68.0KAST 70%
GO
Goody
AWPADR 82.0KAST 72%
KU
Kunai
RiflerADR 72.8KAST 69%
DA
dan1
AWPADR 66.5KAST 70%
CH
Chill
RiflerADR 70.8KAST 68%
Unpredicted Maps
3 maps
Overpass
PHAN
13
–
7
ATRE
87%
13%
Win prob
OT 6%
Key factors
After First Death
PHAN
ATRE
Ranking
PHAN
ATRE
After First Kill
PHAN
ATRE
Opening Score
PHAN
ATRE
Map Player Rating
PHAN
ATRE
Recent on Overpass
phantom
9-13
vs Metizport
Apr 14
11-13
vs Sashi
Feb 23
13-10
vs illwill
Feb 23
13-8
vs SINNERS
Feb 22
12-16
vs Young Ninjas
Feb 21
atreides
4-13
vs RUSTEC
Apr 20
13-16
vs QUAZAR
Apr 3
13-9
vs Lavked
Mar 23
14-16
vs QWENTRY
Mar 17
13-8
vs Aurora Young Blud
Feb 26
Dust2
PHAN
13
–
10
ATRE
71%
29%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Ranking
PHAN
ATRE
After First Death
PHAN
ATRE
After First Kill
PHAN
ATRE
Round Win Rate
PHAN
ATRE
Opening Score
PHAN
ATRE
Recent on Dust2
phantom
10-13
vs FAVBET
Apr 18
7-13
vs GenOne
Apr 16
6-13
vs ex-RUBY
Apr 14
13-5
vs HEROIC Academy
Apr 13
13-3
vs Ursa
Apr 10
atreides
13-8
vs VP.Prodigy
Apr 22
9-13
vs QWENTRY
Mar 17
9-13
vs QWENTRY
Feb 14
Inferno
PHAN
9
–
13
ATRE
35%
65%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
PHAN
ATRE
After First Death
PHAN
ATRE
Ranking
PHAN
ATRE
After First Kill
PHAN
ATRE
Schedule Strength
PHAN
ATRE
Recent on Inferno
phantom
no data
atreides
8-13
vs BASEMENT BOYS
Apr 22
13-5
vs RUSTEC
Apr 20
13-10
vs QUAZAR
Apr 3
7-13
vs UNiTY
Apr 1
10-13
vs Hashiras
Mar 16