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Bo3  ·  ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4
sparta
vs
donstu ✗
44%
56%
Series win probability
DONS 2–1 50%
SPAR 2–1 31%
SPAR 2–0 14%
DONS 2–0 6%
Actual result
Dust2 13–3
Ancient 13–11
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — donstu is slightly favored at 56% but only leads on 2 of 3 maps. Key factors: stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#173 vs #78), a strong ancient (93% win probability). sparta's best shot is dust2 where they hold a 96% edge.
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 39% Dust2 · Ancient · Anubis
Scenario 2 32% Dust2 · Ancient · Nuke
Scenario 3 29% Dust2 · Ancient · Overpass
Dust2
SPAR 13 – 6 DONS
93%
7%
Win prob OT 3% ✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
SPAR
DONS
Head-to-Head
SPAR
DONS
Ranking
SPAR
DONS
After First Death
SPAR
DONS
After First Kill
SPAR
DONS
Recent on Dust2
sparta
8-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
17-19 vs TDK Apr 2
13-9 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
6-13 vs Nemiga Mar 10
10-13 vs ww Mar 6
donstu
19-15 vs Lilmix Apr 21
9-13 vs G2 Ares Apr 3
5-13 vs Young Ninjas Mar 15
13-6 vs Endless Journey Mar 14
13-8 vs Misa Mar 12
Ancient
SPAR 7 – 13 DONS
15%
85%
Win prob OT 5% ✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
SPAR
DONS
After First Kill
SPAR
DONS
After First Death
SPAR
DONS
Ranking
SPAR
DONS
Head-to-Head
SPAR
DONS
Recent on Ancient
sparta
2-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
5-13 vs 5Actors Mar 10
6-13 vs Nemiga Mar 10
13-9 vs vp.prodigy Mar 6
9-13 vs vp.prodigy Mar 5
donstu
10-13 vs brazylijski luz Apr 1
13-7 vs OlyBet Mar 31
11-13 vs The Last Resort Mar 29
16-13 vs Young Ninjas Mar 15
14-16 vs QWENTRY Mar 15
Anubis
SPAR 9 – 13 DONS
38%
62%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
SPAR
DONS
After First Death
SPAR
DONS
Ranking
SPAR
DONS
Head-to-Head
SPAR
DONS
Round Win Rate
SPAR
DONS
Recent on Anubis
sparta
8-13 vs TDK Feb 18
13-10 vs TNT Feb 14
donstu
13-11 vs G2 Ares Apr 22
13-6 vs VP.Prodigy Apr 18
7-13 vs G2 Ares Apr 3
16-12 vs The Last Resort Apr 2
13-2 vs brazylijski luz Apr 1
Dust2
SPAR 13 – 6 DONS
93%
7%
Win prob OT 3% ✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
SPAR
DONS
Head-to-Head
SPAR
DONS
Ranking
SPAR
DONS
After First Death
SPAR
DONS
After First Kill
SPAR
DONS
Recent on Dust2
sparta
8-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
17-19 vs TDK Apr 2
13-9 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
6-13 vs Nemiga Mar 10
10-13 vs ww Mar 6
donstu
19-15 vs Lilmix Apr 21
9-13 vs G2 Ares Apr 3
5-13 vs Young Ninjas Mar 15
13-6 vs Endless Journey Mar 14
13-8 vs Misa Mar 12
Ancient
SPAR 7 – 13 DONS
15%
85%
Win prob OT 5% ✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
SPAR
DONS
After First Kill
SPAR
DONS
After First Death
SPAR
DONS
Ranking
SPAR
DONS
Head-to-Head
SPAR
DONS
Recent on Ancient
sparta
2-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
5-13 vs 5Actors Mar 10
6-13 vs Nemiga Mar 10
13-9 vs vp.prodigy Mar 6
9-13 vs vp.prodigy Mar 5
donstu
10-13 vs brazylijski luz Apr 1
13-7 vs OlyBet Mar 31
11-13 vs The Last Resort Mar 29
16-13 vs Young Ninjas Mar 15
14-16 vs QWENTRY Mar 15
Nuke
SPAR 8 – 13 DONS
16%
84%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
SPAR
DONS
After First Kill
SPAR
DONS
Ranking
SPAR
DONS
After First Death
SPAR
DONS
Head-to-Head
SPAR
DONS
Recent on Nuke
sparta
7-13 vs WW Mar 25
5-13 vs 5Actors Mar 10
6-13 vs ww Mar 6
11-13 vs nuclear tigeres Mar 3
13-7 vs younglings Mar 3
donstu
19-17 vs VP.Prodigy Apr 18
13-8 vs brazylijski luz Apr 1
13-5 vs Misa Mar 12
5-13 vs OLDBOYS PL Mar 9
13-9 vs CSDIILIT Mar 7
Dust2
SPAR 13 – 6 DONS
93%
7%
Win prob OT 3% ✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
SPAR
DONS
Head-to-Head
SPAR
DONS
Ranking
SPAR
DONS
After First Death
SPAR
DONS
After First Kill
SPAR
DONS
Recent on Dust2
sparta
8-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
17-19 vs TDK Apr 2
13-9 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
6-13 vs Nemiga Mar 10
10-13 vs ww Mar 6
donstu
19-15 vs Lilmix Apr 21
9-13 vs G2 Ares Apr 3
5-13 vs Young Ninjas Mar 15
13-6 vs Endless Journey Mar 14
13-8 vs Misa Mar 12
Ancient
SPAR 7 – 13 DONS
15%
85%
Win prob OT 5% ✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
SPAR
DONS
After First Kill
SPAR
DONS
After First Death
SPAR
DONS
Ranking
SPAR
DONS
Head-to-Head
SPAR
DONS
Recent on Ancient
sparta
2-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
5-13 vs 5Actors Mar 10
6-13 vs Nemiga Mar 10
13-9 vs vp.prodigy Mar 6
9-13 vs vp.prodigy Mar 5
donstu
10-13 vs brazylijski luz Apr 1
13-7 vs OlyBet Mar 31
11-13 vs The Last Resort Mar 29
16-13 vs Young Ninjas Mar 15
14-16 vs QWENTRY Mar 15
Overpass
SPAR 13 – 4 DONS
98%
2%
Win prob OT 1%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
SPAR
DONS
Head-to-Head
SPAR
DONS
Ranking
SPAR
DONS
After First Kill
SPAR
DONS
After First Death
SPAR
DONS
Recent on Overpass
sparta
11-13 vs TDK Apr 2
13-6 vs WW Mar 25
9-13 vs tdk Mar 5
13-9 vs tdk Feb 27
7-13 vs MOUZ NXT Feb 22
donstu
13-10 vs G2 Ares Apr 22
13-9 vs Lilmix Apr 21
13-6 vs G2 Ares Apr 3
13-2 vs The Last Resort Apr 2
13-10 vs The Last Resort Mar 29
Recent Results last 11 matches
sparta
donstu
L 0-2 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects AncientDust2 Apr 2 24d ago
L 0-2 vs TDK OverpassDust2 Apr 2 24d ago
W 2-0 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects InfernoDust2 Apr 2 24d ago
L 1-2 vs WW OverpassMirageNuke Mar 25 32d ago
L 1-2 vs 5Actors MirageNukeAncient Mar 10 47d ago
L 0-2 vs Nemiga AncientDust2 Mar 10 47d ago
L 0-2 vs ww Dust2Nuke Mar 6 51d ago
W 2-1 vs 1win InfernoMirageDust2 Mar 6 51d ago
W 2-1 vs vp.prodigy MirageAncientDust2 Mar 6 51d ago
W 2-1 vs tdk Dust2OverpassMirage Mar 5 52d ago
L 1-2 vs vp.prodigy MirageAncientDust2 Mar 5 52d ago
W 2-0 vs G2 Ares AnubisOverpass Apr 22 4d ago
W 2-0 vs Lilmix OverpassDust2 Apr 21 5d ago
W 2-0 vs VP.Prodigy NukeAnubis Apr 18 8d ago
L 1-2 vs G2 Ares AnubisOverpassDust2 Apr 3 23d ago
W 2-0 vs The Last Resort AnubisOverpass Apr 2 24d ago
W 2-1 vs brazylijski luz AncientNukeAnubis Apr 1 25d ago
W 2-0 vs OlyBet AnubisAncient Mar 31 26d ago
L 1-2 vs The Last Resort AncientOverpassInferno Mar 29 28d ago
L 1-2 vs Young Ninjas AncientDust2Overpass Mar 15 42d ago
L 0-2 vs QWENTRY AncientOverpass Mar 15 42d ago
W 2-0 vs Endless Journey Dust2Ancient Mar 14 43d ago
Player Matchups
sparta
Rating 3.0
donstu
TR
TRAVIS
AWPADR 74.6KAST 75%
1.14 vs 1.11
DU
Due1yant
AWPADR 76.0KAST 72%
FO
Forester
EntryADR 75.5KAST 73%
1.09 vs 1.09
MA
maQuein
AWPADR 68.7KAST 75%
LA
Lack1
RiflerADR 76.8KAST 69%
1.05 vs 1.05
GL
gleb86rus
RiflerADR 74.2KAST 73%
EL
El1an
AWPADR 68.3KAST 71%
0.98 vs 1.02
NE
NeoLife
AWPADR 73.9KAST 70%
NI
NickelBack
RiflerADR 68.2KAST 71%
0.93 vs 0.93
LA
LAKSHERi
AWPADR 74.3KAST 70%
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Inferno
SPAR 13 – 4 DONS
98%
2%
Win prob OT 1%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
SPAR
DONS
After First Kill
SPAR
DONS
Head-to-Head
SPAR
DONS
After First Death
SPAR
DONS
Ranking
SPAR
DONS
Recent on Inferno
sparta
13-3 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
9-13 vs 1win Mar 6
16-13 vs alliance Feb 26
16-14 vs omega Feb 19
8-13 vs ex-zero tenacity Feb 17
donstu
6-13 vs The Last Resort Mar 29
13-8 vs CSDIILIT Mar 7
Overpass
SPAR 13 – 4 DONS
98%
2%
Win prob OT 1%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
SPAR
DONS
Head-to-Head
SPAR
DONS
Ranking
SPAR
DONS
After First Kill
SPAR
DONS
After First Death
SPAR
DONS
Recent on Overpass
sparta
11-13 vs TDK Apr 2
13-6 vs WW Mar 25
9-13 vs tdk Mar 5
13-9 vs tdk Feb 27
7-13 vs MOUZ NXT Feb 22
donstu
13-10 vs G2 Ares Apr 22
13-9 vs Lilmix Apr 21
13-6 vs G2 Ares Apr 3
13-2 vs The Last Resort Apr 2
13-10 vs The Last Resort Mar 29
Mirage
SPAR 13 – 5 DONS
95%
5%
Win prob OT 2%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
SPAR
DONS
Head-to-Head
SPAR
DONS
Ranking
SPAR
DONS
After First Death
SPAR
DONS
After First Kill
SPAR
DONS
Recent on Mirage
sparta
7-13 vs WW Mar 25
13-8 vs 5Actors Mar 10
13-9 vs 1win Mar 6
7-13 vs vp.prodigy Mar 6
13-9 vs tdk Mar 5
donstu
no data
Nuke
SPAR 8 – 13 DONS
16%
84%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
SPAR
DONS
After First Kill
SPAR
DONS
Ranking
SPAR
DONS
After First Death
SPAR
DONS
Head-to-Head
SPAR
DONS
Recent on Nuke
sparta
7-13 vs WW Mar 25
5-13 vs 5Actors Mar 10
6-13 vs ww Mar 6
11-13 vs nuclear tigeres Mar 3
13-7 vs younglings Mar 3
donstu
19-17 vs VP.Prodigy Apr 18
13-8 vs brazylijski luz Apr 1
13-5 vs Misa Mar 12
5-13 vs OLDBOYS PL Mar 9
13-9 vs CSDIILIT Mar 7