Project Leggy
‹ Back
Bo3  ·  ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · 2026-04-25
aimclub
vs
rustec ✓
30%
70%
Series win probability
RUST 2–1 44%
RUST 2–0 26%
AIMC 2–0 23%
AIMC 2–1 7%
Actual result
Dust2 13–8
Model Insights
rustec has a moderate edge at 70%, favored on 2 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.06 vs 0.97), a strong overpass (94% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 50% Dust2 · Mirage · Overpass
Scenario 2 32% Dust2 · Mirage · Ancient
Scenario 3 19% Dust2 · Mirage · Inferno
Dust2
AIMC 10 – 13 RUST
42%
58%
Win prob OT 11% ✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
AIMC
RUST
Head-to-Head
AIMC
RUST
Round Win Rate
AIMC
RUST
Map Win Rate
AIMC
RUST
Days With Lineup Diff
AIMC
RUST
Recent on Dust2
aimclub
16-13 vs BASEMENT BOYS Apr 24
9-13 vs Rebels Apr 23
10-13 vs yngods Apr 22
13-8 vs BRUTE Apr 22
5-13 vs eLITenergy Apr 19
rustec
16-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 24
4-13 vs Hashiras Apr 22
13-9 vs Nemesis Apr 8
8-13 vs MANA Apr 1
6-13 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
Mirage
AIMC 13 – 11 RUST
55%
45%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Head-to-Head
AIMC
RUST
After First Death
AIMC
RUST
Days With Lineup Diff
AIMC
RUST
KAST
AIMC
RUST
CT 4v5
AIMC
RUST
Recent on Mirage
aimclub
13-8 vs BASEMENT BOYS Apr 24
17-19 vs HEROIC Academy Apr 20
13-5 vs Eternal Fire Mar 30
8-13 vs FaZe Mar 30
9-13 vs Lazer Cats Mar 29
rustec
10-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 24
13-5 vs playersclub Apr 23
8-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
6-13 vs MANA Apr 1
5-13 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
Overpass
AIMC 7 – 13 RUST
14%
86%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
AIMC
RUST
After First Death
AIMC
RUST
Head-to-Head
AIMC
RUST
Round Win Rate
AIMC
RUST
After First Kill
AIMC
RUST
Recent on Overpass
aimclub
13-11 vs HEROIC Academy Apr 20
9-13 vs FaZe Mar 30
6-13 vs HYPERSPIRIT Mar 16
13-4 vs mindshock Feb 24
rustec
16-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 24
13-7 vs playersclub Apr 23
13-4 vs Atreides Apr 20
13-11 vs STATE Apr 3
13-7 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Apr 2
Dust2
AIMC 10 – 13 RUST
42%
58%
Win prob OT 11% ✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
AIMC
RUST
Head-to-Head
AIMC
RUST
Round Win Rate
AIMC
RUST
Map Win Rate
AIMC
RUST
Days With Lineup Diff
AIMC
RUST
Recent on Dust2
aimclub
16-13 vs BASEMENT BOYS Apr 24
9-13 vs Rebels Apr 23
10-13 vs yngods Apr 22
13-8 vs BRUTE Apr 22
5-13 vs eLITenergy Apr 19
rustec
16-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 24
4-13 vs Hashiras Apr 22
13-9 vs Nemesis Apr 8
8-13 vs MANA Apr 1
6-13 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
Mirage
AIMC 13 – 11 RUST
55%
45%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Head-to-Head
AIMC
RUST
After First Death
AIMC
RUST
Days With Lineup Diff
AIMC
RUST
KAST
AIMC
RUST
CT 4v5
AIMC
RUST
Recent on Mirage
aimclub
13-8 vs BASEMENT BOYS Apr 24
17-19 vs HEROIC Academy Apr 20
13-5 vs Eternal Fire Mar 30
8-13 vs FaZe Mar 30
9-13 vs Lazer Cats Mar 29
rustec
10-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 24
13-5 vs playersclub Apr 23
8-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
6-13 vs MANA Apr 1
5-13 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
Ancient
AIMC 11 – 13 RUST
42%
58%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Head-to-Head
AIMC
RUST
After First Kill
AIMC
RUST
Days With Lineup Diff
AIMC
RUST
KAST
AIMC
RUST
Round Win Rate
AIMC
RUST
Recent on Ancient
aimclub
13-4 vs yngods Apr 22
13-8 vs ADN Mar 29
6-13 vs G2 Mar 25
13-8 vs fnatic Mar 24
13-4 vs Nexus Mar 24
rustec
11-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
13-7 vs Oxuji Mar 24
13-9 vs Nemesis Mar 9
3-13 vs K27 Feb 2
Dust2
AIMC 10 – 13 RUST
42%
58%
Win prob OT 11% ✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
AIMC
RUST
Head-to-Head
AIMC
RUST
Round Win Rate
AIMC
RUST
Map Win Rate
AIMC
RUST
Days With Lineup Diff
AIMC
RUST
Recent on Dust2
aimclub
16-13 vs BASEMENT BOYS Apr 24
9-13 vs Rebels Apr 23
10-13 vs yngods Apr 22
13-8 vs BRUTE Apr 22
5-13 vs eLITenergy Apr 19
rustec
16-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 24
4-13 vs Hashiras Apr 22
13-9 vs Nemesis Apr 8
8-13 vs MANA Apr 1
6-13 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
Mirage
AIMC 13 – 11 RUST
55%
45%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Head-to-Head
AIMC
RUST
After First Death
AIMC
RUST
Days With Lineup Diff
AIMC
RUST
KAST
AIMC
RUST
CT 4v5
AIMC
RUST
Recent on Mirage
aimclub
13-8 vs BASEMENT BOYS Apr 24
17-19 vs HEROIC Academy Apr 20
13-5 vs Eternal Fire Mar 30
8-13 vs FaZe Mar 30
9-13 vs Lazer Cats Mar 29
rustec
10-13 vs ex-RUBY Apr 24
13-5 vs playersclub Apr 23
8-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
6-13 vs MANA Apr 1
5-13 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
Inferno
AIMC 13 – 10 RUST
72%
28%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
AIMC
RUST
Map Player Rating
AIMC
RUST
After First Kill
AIMC
RUST
Head-to-Head
AIMC
RUST
Ban Rate
AIMC
RUST
Recent on Inferno
aimclub
8-13 vs BASEMENT BOYS Apr 24
6-13 vs Rebels Apr 23
2-13 vs BRUTE Apr 22
13-6 vs HEROIC Academy Apr 20
7-13 vs eLITenergy Apr 19
rustec
10-13 vs Hashiras Apr 22
5-13 vs Atreides Apr 20
Recent Results last 11 matches
aimclub
rustec
W 2-1 vs BASEMENT BOYS InfernoDust2Mirage Apr 24 2d ago
L 0-2 vs Rebels InfernoDust2 Apr 23 3d ago
W 2-1 vs yngods AnubisDust2Ancient Apr 22 4d ago
L 1-2 vs BRUTE AnubisDust2Inferno Apr 22 4d ago
W 2-1 vs HEROIC Academy OverpassMirageInferno Apr 20 6d ago
L 0-2 vs eLITenergy Dust2Inferno Apr 19 7d ago
L 1-2 vs Eternal Fire InfernoMirageDust2 Mar 30 27d ago
L 0-2 vs FaZe MirageOverpass Mar 30 27d ago
W 2-0 vs MOUZ NXT Dust2Anubis Mar 29 28d ago
W 2-0 vs ADN AncientInferno Mar 29 28d ago
L 0-1 vs Lazer Cats Mirage Mar 29 28d ago
W 2-1 vs ex-RUBY OverpassMirageDust2 Apr 24 2d ago
W 2-0 vs playersclub OverpassMirage Apr 23 3d ago
L 0-2 vs Hashiras Dust2Inferno Apr 22 4d ago
W 2-1 vs Atreides InfernoNukeOverpass Apr 20 6d ago
L 1-2 vs Nemesis Dust2AncientMirage Apr 8 18d ago
W 2-0 vs STATE NukeOverpass Apr 3 23d ago
W 2-0 vs ex-Zero Tenacity OverpassNuke Apr 2 24d ago
L 0-2 vs MANA MirageDust2 Apr 1 25d ago
W 2-1 vs ASTRAL Dust2AnubisNuke Apr 1 25d ago
W 2-1 vs Rune Eaters MirageDust2Nuke Mar 30 27d ago
W 2-0 vs Nigel Mirage OverpassMirage Mar 29 28d ago
Player Matchups
aimclub
Rating 3.0
rustec
XE
XELLOW
AWPADR 74.4KAST 70%
1.08 vs 1.11
YO
youka
AWPADR 73.8KAST 72%
RO
RoberttMP
AWPADR 73.6KAST 70%
1.01 vs 1.10
SU
supra
RiflerADR 75.7KAST 71%
ER
ERSIN
AWPADR 72.0KAST 67%
0.96 vs 1.06
BR
Brilliance
AWPADR 75.2KAST 71%
ZE
zewts
RiflerADR 69.7KAST 67%
0.93 vs 1.05
JA
jakekeS
AWPADR 72.5KAST 72%
ED
Ed1m
AWPADR 59.8KAST 69%
0.88 vs 1.00
AN
anttzz
AWPADR 66.6KAST 70%
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Nuke
AIMC 6 – 13 RUST
8%
92%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
AIMC
RUST
After First Death
AIMC
RUST
After First Kill
AIMC
RUST
Head-to-Head
AIMC
RUST
Star Player
AIMC
RUST
Recent on Nuke
aimclub
no data
rustec
13-11 vs Atreides Apr 20
13-9 vs STATE Apr 3
13-6 vs ex-Zero Tenacity Apr 2
13-7 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
13-5 vs Rune Eaters Mar 30
Anubis
AIMC 7 – 13 RUST
14%
86%
Win prob OT 6%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
AIMC
RUST
After First Kill
AIMC
RUST
Round Win Rate
AIMC
RUST
After First Death
AIMC
RUST
Head-to-Head
AIMC
RUST
Recent on Anubis
aimclub
22-19 vs yngods Apr 22
10-13 vs BRUTE Apr 22
13-7 vs MOUZ NXT Mar 29
5-13 vs HYPERSPIRIT Mar 16
3-13 vs HYPERSPIRIT Mar 10
rustec
13-3 vs ASTRAL Apr 1
9-13 vs K27 Feb 2
Inferno
AIMC 13 – 10 RUST
72%
28%
Win prob OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
AIMC
RUST
Map Player Rating
AIMC
RUST
After First Kill
AIMC
RUST
Head-to-Head
AIMC
RUST
Ban Rate
AIMC
RUST
Recent on Inferno
aimclub
8-13 vs BASEMENT BOYS Apr 24
6-13 vs Rebels Apr 23
2-13 vs BRUTE Apr 22
13-6 vs HEROIC Academy Apr 20
7-13 vs eLITenergy Apr 19
rustec
10-13 vs Hashiras Apr 22
5-13 vs Atreides Apr 20
Ancient
AIMC 11 – 13 RUST
42%
58%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Head-to-Head
AIMC
RUST
After First Kill
AIMC
RUST
Days With Lineup Diff
AIMC
RUST
KAST
AIMC
RUST
Round Win Rate
AIMC
RUST
Recent on Ancient
aimclub
13-4 vs yngods Apr 22
13-8 vs ADN Mar 29
6-13 vs G2 Mar 25
13-8 vs fnatic Mar 24
13-4 vs Nexus Mar 24
rustec
11-13 vs Nemesis Apr 8
13-7 vs Oxuji Mar 24
13-9 vs Nemesis Mar 9
3-13 vs K27 Feb 2