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Bo3  ·  ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · 2026-04-25
lavked ✗
vs
sparta
85%
15%
Series win probability
LAVK 2–0 56%
LAVK 2–1 30%
SPAR 2–1 8%
SPAR 2–0 6%
Actual result
Mirage 16–13
Nuke 13–8
Model Insights
lavked is strongly favored at 85%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.09 vs 1.05), stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#105 vs #78), a strong nuke (85% win probability).
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 41% Mirage · Dust2 · Nuke
Scenario 2 31% Mirage · Nuke · Ancient
Scenario 3 28% Mirage · Nuke · Overpass
Mirage
LAVK 13 – 9 SPAR
76%
24%
Win prob OT 9% ✗
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
Ranking
LAVK
SPAR
Schedule Strength
LAVK
SPAR
Opening Score
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Mirage
lavked
13-11 vs OLDBOYS PL Apr 23
13-5 vs Oxuji Apr 18
13-10 vs Bebop Apr 16
16-14 vs Phantom Apr 15
10-13 vs ARCRED Apr 14
sparta
7-13 vs WW Mar 25
13-8 vs 5Actors Mar 10
13-9 vs 1win Mar 6
7-13 vs vp.prodigy Mar 6
13-9 vs tdk Mar 5
Dust2
LAVK 13 – 10 SPAR
73%
27%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
Utility Score
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
Opening Score
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Dust2
lavked
7-13 vs FAVBET Apr 21
13-10 vs Rune Eaters Apr 12
19-15 vs ASTRAL Apr 10
7-13 vs 100 thieves Apr 2
12-16 vs K27 Apr 1
sparta
13-3 vs DONSTU Apr 23
8-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
17-19 vs TDK Apr 2
13-9 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
6-13 vs Nemiga Mar 10
Nuke
LAVK 13 – 7 SPAR
78%
22%
Win prob OT 8% ✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
Ranking
LAVK
SPAR
Schedule Strength
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Nuke
lavked
13-8 vs OLDBOYS PL Apr 23
13-10 vs FAVBET Apr 21
6-13 vs Oxuji Apr 18
13-2 vs Bebop Apr 16
13-7 vs Phantom Apr 15
sparta
7-13 vs WW Mar 25
5-13 vs 5Actors Mar 10
6-13 vs ww Mar 6
11-13 vs nuclear tigeres Mar 3
13-7 vs younglings Mar 3
Mirage
LAVK 13 – 9 SPAR
76%
24%
Win prob OT 9% ✗
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
Ranking
LAVK
SPAR
Schedule Strength
LAVK
SPAR
Opening Score
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Mirage
lavked
13-11 vs OLDBOYS PL Apr 23
13-5 vs Oxuji Apr 18
13-10 vs Bebop Apr 16
16-14 vs Phantom Apr 15
10-13 vs ARCRED Apr 14
sparta
7-13 vs WW Mar 25
13-8 vs 5Actors Mar 10
13-9 vs 1win Mar 6
7-13 vs vp.prodigy Mar 6
13-9 vs tdk Mar 5
Nuke
LAVK 13 – 7 SPAR
78%
22%
Win prob OT 8% ✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
Ranking
LAVK
SPAR
Schedule Strength
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Nuke
lavked
13-8 vs OLDBOYS PL Apr 23
13-10 vs FAVBET Apr 21
6-13 vs Oxuji Apr 18
13-2 vs Bebop Apr 16
13-7 vs Phantom Apr 15
sparta
7-13 vs WW Mar 25
5-13 vs 5Actors Mar 10
6-13 vs ww Mar 6
11-13 vs nuclear tigeres Mar 3
13-7 vs younglings Mar 3
Ancient
LAVK 13 – 7 SPAR
69%
31%
Win prob OT 7%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
Round Win Rate
LAVK
SPAR
Ranking
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Ancient
lavked
6-13 vs Oxuji Apr 18
19-16 vs Rune Eaters Apr 12
13-3 vs megoshort Apr 9
13-5 vs 100 thieves Apr 2
13-16 vs ESC Apr 2
sparta
11-13 vs DONSTU Apr 23
2-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
5-13 vs 5Actors Mar 10
6-13 vs Nemiga Mar 10
13-9 vs vp.prodigy Mar 6
Mirage
LAVK 13 – 9 SPAR
76%
24%
Win prob OT 9% ✗
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
Ranking
LAVK
SPAR
Schedule Strength
LAVK
SPAR
Opening Score
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Mirage
lavked
13-11 vs OLDBOYS PL Apr 23
13-5 vs Oxuji Apr 18
13-10 vs Bebop Apr 16
16-14 vs Phantom Apr 15
10-13 vs ARCRED Apr 14
sparta
7-13 vs WW Mar 25
13-8 vs 5Actors Mar 10
13-9 vs 1win Mar 6
7-13 vs vp.prodigy Mar 6
13-9 vs tdk Mar 5
Nuke
LAVK 13 – 7 SPAR
78%
22%
Win prob OT 8% ✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
Ranking
LAVK
SPAR
Schedule Strength
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Nuke
lavked
13-8 vs OLDBOYS PL Apr 23
13-10 vs FAVBET Apr 21
6-13 vs Oxuji Apr 18
13-2 vs Bebop Apr 16
13-7 vs Phantom Apr 15
sparta
7-13 vs WW Mar 25
5-13 vs 5Actors Mar 10
6-13 vs ww Mar 6
11-13 vs nuclear tigeres Mar 3
13-7 vs younglings Mar 3
Overpass
LAVK 8 – 13 SPAR
22%
78%
Win prob OT 7%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
Round Win Rate
LAVK
SPAR
Utility Score
LAVK
SPAR
T Side
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Overpass
lavked
13-9 vs Hashiras Apr 9
13-16 vs G2 Ares Apr 2
3-13 vs QUAZAR Mar 30
9-13 vs Atreides Mar 23
sparta
13-1 vs DONSTU Apr 23
11-13 vs TDK Apr 2
13-6 vs WW Mar 25
9-13 vs tdk Mar 5
13-9 vs tdk Feb 27
Recent Results last 11 matches
lavked
sparta
W 2-0 vs OLDBOYS PL NukeMirage Apr 23 3d ago
L 1-2 vs FAVBET NukeAnubisDust2 Apr 21 5d ago
L 1-2 vs Oxuji MirageAncientNuke Apr 18 8d ago
W 2-0 vs Bebop NukeMirage Apr 16 10d ago
W 2-0 vs Phantom NukeMirage Apr 15 11d ago
L 0-2 vs Nuclear TigeRES NukeAnubis Apr 14 12d ago
L 0-2 vs ARCRED AnubisMirage Apr 14 12d ago
W 2-1 vs Rune Eaters Dust2MirageAncient Apr 12 14d ago
W 2-0 vs Bebop MirageNuke Apr 12 14d ago
W 2-0 vs ASTRAL Dust2Mirage Apr 10 16d ago
W 2-0 vs megoshort AncientMirage Apr 9 17d ago
W 2-1 vs DONSTU AncientDust2Overpass Apr 23 3d ago
L 0-2 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects AncientDust2 Apr 2 24d ago
L 0-2 vs TDK OverpassDust2 Apr 2 24d ago
W 2-0 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects InfernoDust2 Apr 2 24d ago
L 1-2 vs WW OverpassMirageNuke Mar 25 32d ago
L 1-2 vs 5Actors MirageNukeAncient Mar 10 47d ago
L 0-2 vs Nemiga AncientDust2 Mar 10 47d ago
L 0-2 vs ww Dust2Nuke Mar 6 51d ago
W 2-1 vs 1win InfernoMirageDust2 Mar 6 51d ago
W 2-1 vs vp.prodigy MirageAncientDust2 Mar 6 51d ago
W 2-1 vs tdk Dust2OverpassMirage Mar 5 52d ago
Player Matchups
lavked
Rating 3.0
sparta
DJ
Djon8
EntryADR 83.8KAST 73%
1.17 vs 1.15
TR
TRAVIS
AWPADR 75.1KAST 75%
SO
sol
AWPADR 70.9KAST 73%
1.04 vs 1.10
FO
Forester
EntryADR 75.6KAST 73%
K4
k4nfuz
AWPADR 67.6KAST 74%
1.02 vs 1.06
LA
Lack1
RiflerADR 77.1KAST 70%
1N
1NVISIBLEE
RiflerADR 79.6KAST 69%
1.02 vs 0.98
EL
El1an
AWPADR 68.2KAST 71%
— vs 0.93
NI
NickelBack
RiflerADR 68.2KAST 71%
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Inferno
LAVK 8 – 13 SPAR
18%
82%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
Star Player
LAVK
SPAR
Opening Kills
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Inferno
lavked
no data
sparta
13-3 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
9-13 vs 1win Mar 6
16-13 vs alliance Feb 26
16-14 vs omega Feb 19
8-13 vs ex-zero tenacity Feb 17
Overpass
LAVK 8 – 13 SPAR
22%
78%
Win prob OT 7%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
Round Win Rate
LAVK
SPAR
Utility Score
LAVK
SPAR
T Side
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Overpass
lavked
13-9 vs Hashiras Apr 9
13-16 vs G2 Ares Apr 2
3-13 vs QUAZAR Mar 30
9-13 vs Atreides Mar 23
sparta
13-1 vs DONSTU Apr 23
11-13 vs TDK Apr 2
13-6 vs WW Mar 25
9-13 vs tdk Mar 5
13-9 vs tdk Feb 27
Ancient
LAVK 13 – 7 SPAR
69%
31%
Win prob OT 7%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
Round Win Rate
LAVK
SPAR
Ranking
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Ancient
lavked
6-13 vs Oxuji Apr 18
19-16 vs Rune Eaters Apr 12
13-3 vs megoshort Apr 9
13-5 vs 100 thieves Apr 2
13-16 vs ESC Apr 2
sparta
11-13 vs DONSTU Apr 23
2-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
5-13 vs 5Actors Mar 10
6-13 vs Nemiga Mar 10
13-9 vs vp.prodigy Mar 6
Anubis
LAVK 13 – 11 SPAR
52%
48%
Win prob OT 12%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
LAVK
SPAR
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
Star Player
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Anubis
lavked
10-13 vs FAVBET Apr 21
4-13 vs Nuclear TigeRES Apr 14
7-13 vs ARCRED Apr 14
sparta
8-13 vs TDK Feb 18
13-10 vs TNT Feb 14