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Bo3  ·  ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4
lavked
vs
sparta
65%
35%
Series win probability
LAVK 2–1 48%
SPAR 2–0 25%
LAVK 2–0 18%
SPAR 2–1 9%
Actual result
Inferno 16–12 SPAR
Nuke 13–8 LAVK
Mirage 16–13 SPAR
Model Insights
lavked has a moderate edge at 65%, favored on 2 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.08 vs 1.04), stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#104 vs #76), a strong nuke (84% win probability). sparta's best shot is mirage where they hold a 73% edge.
Predicted Maps 3 maps
Scenario 1 42% Mirage · Dust2 · Nuke
Scenario 2 29% Mirage · Nuke · Ancient
Scenario 3 29% Mirage · Nuke · Overpass
Mirage
LAVK 8 13 SPAR
27%
73%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
Ranking
LAVK
SPAR
Schedule Strength
LAVK
SPAR
Sniper Score
LAVK
SPAR
Round Win Rate
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Mirage
lavked
13-11 vs OLDBOYS PL Apr 23
13-5 vs Oxuji Apr 18
13-10 vs Bebop Apr 16
16-14 vs None Apr 15
10-13 vs None Apr 14
sparta
7-13 vs None Mar 25
13-8 vs 5Actors Mar 10
13-9 vs None Mar 6
7-13 vs vp.prodigy Mar 6
13-11 vs vp.prodigy Mar 5
Dust2
LAVK 13 10 SPAR
65%
35%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
Ranking
LAVK
SPAR
Schedule Strength
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
Sniper Score
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Dust2
lavked
7-13 vs None Apr 21
13-10 vs Rune Eaters Apr 12
19-15 vs ASTRAL Apr 10
7-13 vs None Apr 2
12-16 vs None Apr 1
sparta
13-3 vs DONSTU Apr 23
13-9 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
17-19 vs None Apr 2
8-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
6-13 vs None Mar 10
Nuke
LAVK 13 6 SPAR
84%
16%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
Ranking
LAVK
SPAR
Schedule Strength
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Nuke
lavked
13-8 vs OLDBOYS PL Apr 23
13-10 vs None Apr 21
6-13 vs Oxuji Apr 18
13-2 vs Bebop Apr 16
13-7 vs None Apr 15
sparta
7-13 vs None Mar 25
5-13 vs 5Actors Mar 10
6-13 vs None Mar 6
11-13 vs None Mar 3
13-7 vs younglings Mar 3
Mirage
LAVK 8 13 SPAR
27%
73%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
Ranking
LAVK
SPAR
Schedule Strength
LAVK
SPAR
Sniper Score
LAVK
SPAR
Round Win Rate
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Mirage
lavked
13-11 vs OLDBOYS PL Apr 23
13-5 vs Oxuji Apr 18
13-10 vs Bebop Apr 16
16-14 vs None Apr 15
10-13 vs None Apr 14
sparta
7-13 vs None Mar 25
13-8 vs 5Actors Mar 10
13-9 vs None Mar 6
7-13 vs vp.prodigy Mar 6
13-11 vs vp.prodigy Mar 5
Nuke
LAVK 13 6 SPAR
84%
16%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
Ranking
LAVK
SPAR
Schedule Strength
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Nuke
lavked
13-8 vs OLDBOYS PL Apr 23
13-10 vs None Apr 21
6-13 vs Oxuji Apr 18
13-2 vs Bebop Apr 16
13-7 vs None Apr 15
sparta
7-13 vs None Mar 25
5-13 vs 5Actors Mar 10
6-13 vs None Mar 6
11-13 vs None Mar 3
13-7 vs younglings Mar 3
Ancient
LAVK 13 5 SPAR
77%
23%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
Round Win Rate
LAVK
SPAR
Ranking
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Ancient
lavked
6-13 vs Oxuji Apr 18
19-16 vs Rune Eaters Apr 12
13-3 vs megoshort Apr 9
13-16 vs ESC Apr 2
13-5 vs None Apr 2
sparta
11-13 vs DONSTU Apr 23
2-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
6-13 vs None Mar 10
5-13 vs 5Actors Mar 10
13-9 vs vp.prodigy Mar 6
Mirage
LAVK 8 13 SPAR
27%
73%
Win prob OT 9%
Key factors
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
Ranking
LAVK
SPAR
Schedule Strength
LAVK
SPAR
Sniper Score
LAVK
SPAR
Round Win Rate
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Mirage
lavked
13-11 vs OLDBOYS PL Apr 23
13-5 vs Oxuji Apr 18
13-10 vs Bebop Apr 16
16-14 vs None Apr 15
10-13 vs None Apr 14
sparta
7-13 vs None Mar 25
13-8 vs 5Actors Mar 10
13-9 vs None Mar 6
7-13 vs vp.prodigy Mar 6
13-11 vs vp.prodigy Mar 5
Nuke
LAVK 13 6 SPAR
84%
16%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
Ranking
LAVK
SPAR
Schedule Strength
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Nuke
lavked
13-8 vs OLDBOYS PL Apr 23
13-10 vs None Apr 21
6-13 vs Oxuji Apr 18
13-2 vs Bebop Apr 16
13-7 vs None Apr 15
sparta
7-13 vs None Mar 25
5-13 vs 5Actors Mar 10
6-13 vs None Mar 6
11-13 vs None Mar 3
13-7 vs younglings Mar 3
Overpass
LAVK 8 13 SPAR
30%
70%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
Round Win Rate
LAVK
SPAR
Rating Spread
LAVK
SPAR
Schedule Strength
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Overpass
lavked
13-9 vs Hashiras Apr 9
13-16 vs G2 Ares Apr 2
3-13 vs QUAZAR Mar 30
9-13 vs Atreides Mar 23
sparta
13-1 vs DONSTU Apr 23
11-13 vs None Apr 2
13-6 vs None Mar 25
9-13 vs None Mar 5
13-9 vs None Feb 27
Recent Results last 11 matches
lavked
sparta
W 2-0 vs OLDBOYS PL NukeMirage Apr 23 48d ago
L 1-2 vs None NukeAnubisDust2 Apr 21 50d ago
L 1-2 vs Oxuji MirageAncientNuke Apr 18 53d ago
W 2-0 vs Bebop NukeMirage Apr 16 55d ago
W 2-0 vs None NukeMirage Apr 15 56d ago
L 0-2 vs None AnubisMirage Apr 14 57d ago
L 0-2 vs None NukeAnubis Apr 14 57d ago
W 2-0 vs Bebop MirageNuke Apr 12 59d ago
W 2-1 vs Rune Eaters Dust2MirageAncient Apr 12 59d ago
W 2-0 vs ASTRAL Dust2Mirage Apr 10 61d ago
W 2-0 vs Hashiras OverpassNuke Apr 9 62d ago
W 2-1 vs DONSTU AncientDust2Overpass Apr 23 48d ago
W 2-0 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects InfernoDust2 Apr 2 69d ago
L 0-2 vs None OverpassDust2 Apr 2 69d ago
L 0-2 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects AncientDust2 Apr 2 69d ago
L 1-2 vs None OverpassMirageNuke Mar 25 77d ago
L 0-2 vs None AncientDust2 Mar 10 92d ago
L 1-2 vs 5Actors MirageNukeAncient Mar 10 92d ago
W 2-1 vs None InfernoMirageDust2 Mar 6 96d ago
W 2-1 vs vp.prodigy MirageAncientDust2 Mar 6 96d ago
L 0-2 vs None Dust2Nuke Mar 6 96d ago
L 1-2 vs vp.prodigy MirageAncientDust2 Mar 5 97d ago
Player Matchups
lavked
Ratings
sparta
DJ
Djon8
EntryADR 83.8KAST 73%
1.17 vs 1.15
TR
TRAVIS
RiflerADR 75.1KAST 75%
SO
sol
AWPADR 70.9KAST 73%
1.04 vs 1.10
FO
Forester
EntryADR 75.6KAST 73%
1N
1NVISIBLEE
RiflerADR 79.6KAST 69%
1.02 vs 1.06
LA
Lack1
RiflerADR 77.1KAST 70%
K4
k4nfuz
RiflerADR 67.6KAST 74%
1.02 vs 0.98
EL
El1an
AWPADR 68.2KAST 71%
vs 0.93
NI
NickelBack
RiflerADR 68.2KAST 71%
Unpredicted Maps 4 maps
Inferno
LAVK 4 13 SPAR
6%
94%
Win prob OT 1%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
Schedule Strength
LAVK
SPAR
CT 4v5
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Inferno
lavked
no data
sparta
13-3 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
9-13 vs None Mar 6
16-13 vs None Feb 26
16-14 vs omega Feb 19
8-13 vs ex-zero tenacity Feb 17
Ancient
LAVK 13 5 SPAR
77%
23%
Win prob OT 4%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
Round Win Rate
LAVK
SPAR
Ranking
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Ancient
lavked
6-13 vs Oxuji Apr 18
19-16 vs Rune Eaters Apr 12
13-3 vs megoshort Apr 9
13-16 vs ESC Apr 2
13-5 vs None Apr 2
sparta
11-13 vs DONSTU Apr 23
2-13 vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects Apr 2
6-13 vs None Mar 10
5-13 vs 5Actors Mar 10
13-9 vs vp.prodigy Mar 6
Overpass
LAVK 8 13 SPAR
30%
70%
Win prob OT 8%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
Round Win Rate
LAVK
SPAR
Rating Spread
LAVK
SPAR
Schedule Strength
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Overpass
lavked
13-9 vs Hashiras Apr 9
13-16 vs G2 Ares Apr 2
3-13 vs QUAZAR Mar 30
9-13 vs Atreides Mar 23
sparta
13-1 vs DONSTU Apr 23
11-13 vs None Apr 2
13-6 vs None Mar 25
9-13 vs None Mar 5
13-9 vs None Feb 27
Anubis
LAVK 9 13 SPAR
38%
62%
Win prob OT 10%
Key factors
Round Win Rate
LAVK
SPAR
After First Kill
LAVK
SPAR
Map Player Rating
LAVK
SPAR
After First Death
LAVK
SPAR
Ranking
LAVK
SPAR
Recent on Anubis
lavked
10-13 vs None Apr 21
7-13 vs None Apr 14
4-13 vs None Apr 14
sparta
8-13 vs None Feb 18
13-10 vs TNT Feb 14
More from ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 8 matches